Gale Warning 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

410 
FZAK52 PAFC 182358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191300-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low 135 nm South of Unimak Island moves into the Gulf 
of Alaska through Sun afternoon. Its front moves into the North 
Pacific for Sat afternoon. A 990 mb South Kamchatka moves to 125
nm North of Dutch Harbor at 982 mb by Sun afternoon. Its front 
moves over the Aleutians through Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-191300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 6 
ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15
kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191300-
Bristol Bay-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191300-
Unalaska Bay-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191300-
Adak to Kiska-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft Bering side...22 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191300-
Kiska to Attu-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas building to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft Bering side...21 ft Pacific side.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

820 
FZAK52 PAFC 191157
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-200045-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 300 nm west of Shemya this morning will move to 170
nm southwest of Saint Paul at 982 mb Sunday morning. The low then
moves 160 nm south of Cold Bay at 982 mb Monday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-200045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-200045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt
becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-200045-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-200045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 20 kt increasing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-200045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-200045-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ172-200045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-200045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-200045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-200045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-200045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-200045-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side... 25 ft Pac
side. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft Bering side...25 ft Pac side.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-200045-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft Bering side...27 ft Pac side.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-200045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-200045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-200045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-200045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low which was over Bristol Bay this morning
is tracking inland across Southwest Alaska this afternoon. The
associated occluded front is approaching the north Gulf coast,
leading to a barrier jet with storm force winds along the coast
and gale force winds in Prince William Sound. Additionally,
widespread gales are being observed in the wake of the low as
cooler more unstable air moves in and pressure rises. This is
primarily affecting coastal waters along the Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay on into the western Gulf. Gusty winds also moved
across much of Southcentral today, ahead of the front. The highest
winds were observed through Portage Valley, Turnagain Arm, the
higher elevations of Anchorage, and along the Copper River. Gusts
of 65 to 75 mph were reported at multiple stations on the upper
hillside in Anchorage. This storm system is also bringing
widespread rain to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, with the
heaviest rain along the coastal regions. Storm total rainfall
amounts thus far generally range from 0.5 to 1.5 in. While river
levels are elevated, flood risks are minimal.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement over the next few days.
Model agreement (and forecast confidence) has improved for the
fast moving low traversing eastward along the Aleutian Chain
Friday and Saturday. However, solutions diverge significantly
as the low crosses the Gulf, so there is uncertainty in the
wind/precip forecast for the Gulf coast and Southcentral.
Lastly, models are all trending stronger with the large low
crossing the Bering Sea Saturday through Sunday, so the
forecast will follow the same trend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue, though there could be a very
brief period of MVFR ceilings as batches of showers move through.
Gusty winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low has tracked well into the interior of western Alaska with
its associated front moving onshore along the Gulf Coast.
Consequently, gusty easterly winds over Turnagain and Knik Arms
will continue to diminish overnight into Friday morning. Rain will
taper off across Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley as well,
though precipitation will continue to remain widespread near
higher terrain through the weekend. An upper level jet will dip
well to the south of Alaska on Saturday brining much cooler
temperatures. While low temperatures overnight Saturday into
Sunday will generally be moderated by cloud cover, they are
expected to fall to near freezing over the Chugach and thus minor
snow accumulations at higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
Weaker flow will allow for a higher chance of showers in the
Anchorage area late Saturday into Sunday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

An upper low over Kuskokwim Delta has brought a lot of rain and
moisture west of Alaska Range, while isolated thunderstorms were
occurring south of Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. Showery
clouds associated with this system will gradually taper off late
tonight, and cooler temperatures will linger over the region
tonight and Friday night. The next major system from the Aleutians
could bring more rainfall, but the timing may be a challenge as
models delay the forward motion of this expected system. Overall,
it will be a quiet forecast period with only isolated showers in
the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

The next developing system will elevate seas and winds to gale
force conditions, but that may all change should this new system
intensify as it moves across the Bering and the Aleutians over the
weekend. As a result, anticipate another wet pattern to return
before the end of the week, with marine warnings to reflect the
expected situation.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

A strong low entering the Bering Sea on Saturday seems to be
trending stronger with the newer model runs. Thus, expect gale
force winds will more widespread in nature across the Bering Sea
and Aleutians.Saturday night through Monday. There is also the
possibility of a brief period of storm force winds along the
Aleutian Chain as colder feeds into the back side of the
storm Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday the low crosses
over the Aleutians and moves into the Northeast Pacific/Gulf of
Alaska. There is disagreement on the track, but with the latest
models generally farther south, suspect the bulk of small
craft/gale force winds may be confined to the southern Gulf/Kodiak
Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A strong low in the vicinity of the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula on Monday will continue southeastward into the
Gulf/Northeast Pacific by Tuesday. Thus, rain and wind over
the central to eastern Bering will shift south and eastward to
Kodiak Island and the Gulf. Cold air advection behind the low
will maintain robust northerlies across the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska coastal waters all the way through Wednesday.
Much of Southwest and Southcentral look drier on the northern
periphery of the low Monday through Tuesday, with steady rain
likely confined to the Gulf coast. However, it may not be
completely dry over Southcentral, as most models indicate a
short-wave trough moving through sometime Monday.

The forecast for late next week looks potentially "winter-like".
Most models show a trough dropping out of the Arctic mid week,
though there is disagreement on how far south the trough will
make it. The GFS is most aggressive in driving cold air (down
to -10 degrees C at 850 mb) down across Southwest Alaska, then
potentially interacting with energy being pulled from the
Gulf/Northeast Pacific up to Southcentral. At a minimum, could
be a round of mountain snow. Stay tuned, as forecast confidence
is quite low at this point in time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 138 139 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.98W
09/17/2020                   ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN
            PARTIALLY IN THE ROAD WHERE SAND LAKE RD
            TURNS ON TO RASPBERRY HEADED EAST.

&&

AS