Gale Warning 457, NWS Anchorage, AK

679 
FZAK62 PAFC 182359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191300-
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1001 mb low at 53N 164W moves into the Gulf of Alaska through 
Sun afternoon. Its front moves into the North Pacific for Sat 
afternoon. A 990 mb South Kamchatka moves to 55N 169W at 982 mb by
Sun afternoon. Its front moves over the Aleutians through Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas
7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

833 
FZAK62 PAFC 191148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200045-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 53N 167E this morning will move to 56N 174W at 982
mb Sunday morning. The low then moves to 53N 162W at 982 mb Monday
morning. 

$$

PKZ411-200045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

031 
FZAK62 PAFC 192349
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201315-
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 53N 172E this afternoon will move to 55N 170W at
980 mb Sunday afternoon. The low then moves to 53N 155W at 983 mb
Monday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 to
15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

103 
FZAK62 PAFC 201130
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210130-
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 55N 173W this morning will move into the Gulf
Monday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 AM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

795 
FZAK62 PAFC 202307
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211315-
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 55N 170W this afternoon will move into the Gulf 
Monday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

792 
FZAK62 PAFC 211141
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220100-
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 52N 159W this morning will move into the North
Pacific Tuesday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-220100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low which was over Bristol Bay this morning
is tracking inland across Southwest Alaska this afternoon. The
associated occluded front is approaching the north Gulf coast,
leading to a barrier jet with storm force winds along the coast
and gale force winds in Prince William Sound. Additionally,
widespread gales are being observed in the wake of the low as
cooler more unstable air moves in and pressure rises. This is
primarily affecting coastal waters along the Alaska Peninsula
and Bristol Bay on into the western Gulf. Gusty winds also moved
across much of Southcentral today, ahead of the front. The highest
winds were observed through Portage Valley, Turnagain Arm, the
higher elevations of Anchorage, and along the Copper River. Gusts
of 65 to 75 mph were reported at multiple stations on the upper
hillside in Anchorage. This storm system is also bringing
widespread rain to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, with the
heaviest rain along the coastal regions. Storm total rainfall
amounts thus far generally range from 0.5 to 1.5 in. While river
levels are elevated, flood risks are minimal.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement over the next few days.
Model agreement (and forecast confidence) has improved for the
fast moving low traversing eastward along the Aleutian Chain
Friday and Saturday. However, solutions diverge significantly
as the low crosses the Gulf, so there is uncertainty in the
wind/precip forecast for the Gulf coast and Southcentral.
Lastly, models are all trending stronger with the large low
crossing the Bering Sea Saturday through Sunday, so the
forecast will follow the same trend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue, though there could be a very
brief period of MVFR ceilings as batches of showers move through.
Gusty winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low has tracked well into the interior of western Alaska with
its associated front moving onshore along the Gulf Coast.
Consequently, gusty easterly winds over Turnagain and Knik Arms
will continue to diminish overnight into Friday morning. Rain will
taper off across Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley as well,
though precipitation will continue to remain widespread near
higher terrain through the weekend. An upper level jet will dip
well to the south of Alaska on Saturday brining much cooler
temperatures. While low temperatures overnight Saturday into
Sunday will generally be moderated by cloud cover, they are
expected to fall to near freezing over the Chugach and thus minor
snow accumulations at higher elevations cannot be ruled out.
Weaker flow will allow for a higher chance of showers in the
Anchorage area late Saturday into Sunday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

An upper low over Kuskokwim Delta has brought a lot of rain and
moisture west of Alaska Range, while isolated thunderstorms were
occurring south of Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon. Showery
clouds associated with this system will gradually taper off late
tonight, and cooler temperatures will linger over the region
tonight and Friday night. The next major system from the Aleutians
could bring more rainfall, but the timing may be a challenge as
models delay the forward motion of this expected system. Overall,
it will be a quiet forecast period with only isolated showers in
the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday)

The next developing system will elevate seas and winds to gale
force conditions, but that may all change should this new system
intensify as it moves across the Bering and the Aleutians over the
weekend. As a result, anticipate another wet pattern to return
before the end of the week, with marine warnings to reflect the
expected situation.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

A strong low entering the Bering Sea on Saturday seems to be
trending stronger with the newer model runs. Thus, expect gale
force winds will more widespread in nature across the Bering Sea
and Aleutians.Saturday night through Monday. There is also the
possibility of a brief period of storm force winds along the
Aleutian Chain as colder feeds into the back side of the
storm Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday the low crosses
over the Aleutians and moves into the Northeast Pacific/Gulf of
Alaska. There is disagreement on the track, but with the latest
models generally farther south, suspect the bulk of small
craft/gale force winds may be confined to the southern Gulf/Kodiak
Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A strong low in the vicinity of the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula on Monday will continue southeastward into the
Gulf/Northeast Pacific by Tuesday. Thus, rain and wind over
the central to eastern Bering will shift south and eastward to
Kodiak Island and the Gulf. Cold air advection behind the low
will maintain robust northerlies across the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska coastal waters all the way through Wednesday.
Much of Southwest and Southcentral look drier on the northern
periphery of the low Monday through Tuesday, with steady rain
likely confined to the Gulf coast. However, it may not be
completely dry over Southcentral, as most models indicate a
short-wave trough moving through sometime Monday.

The forecast for late next week looks potentially "winter-like".
Most models show a trough dropping out of the Arctic mid week,
though there is disagreement on how far south the trough will
make it. The GFS is most aggressive in driving cold air (down
to -10 degrees C at 850 mb) down across Southwest Alaska, then
potentially interacting with energy being pulled from the
Gulf/Northeast Pacific up to Southcentral. At a minimum, could
be a round of mountain snow. Stay tuned, as forecast confidence
is quite low at this point in time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 138 139 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.98W
09/17/2020                   ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN
            PARTIALLY IN THE ROAD WHERE SAND LAKE RD
            TURNS ON TO RASPBERRY HEADED EAST.

&&

AS