Gale Warning 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

021 
FZAK61 PAFC 010024
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-011345-
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 mb low at 59N 147W moves to 58N 137W at 994 mb Sat afternoon
and then moves inland across the Panhandle Sat evening. A front
approaches the western Gulf Sat night and moves to the central 
Gulf by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-011345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-011345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
324 PM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

268 
FZAK61 PAFC 011231
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-020200-
331 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 mb low near 59N 147W will dissipate as it exits across the 
eastern Gulf Sat afternoon. A front will enter the southwest Gulf
Sun and move to the north Gulf coast Sun night.

$$

PKZ351-020200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
331 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-020200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
331 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

780 
FZAK61 PAFC 020046
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-021345-
346 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front enters the southwest Gulf Sat night and moves to the 
north Gulf coast by Sun night. A new low develops at 58N 150W at 
990 mb Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-021345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-021345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W shifting to S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

454 
FZAK61 PAFC 021235
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030200-
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front moves into the western Gulf Sunday morning and quickly
moves to the northeast Gulf coast by Sunday evening. A second
front moves to the southern Gulf Monday morning and moves to the
northern Gulf by Monday afternoon. A low center develops 58N 150W 
at 985 mb Monday afternoon and moves to 60N 146W by early Tue 
morning.

$$

PKZ351-030200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S to W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S to W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

937 
FZAK61 PAFC 030057
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031345-
357 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front pushes across the Gulf through Tue morning. A 987 mb low
forms on the front at 55N 159W Mon morning and moves to 60N 145W 
at 992 mb and dissipates inland Tue afternoon. A 987 mb low at 52N
159W Tue morning moves to 56N 155W at 983 mb Tue afternoon. Its 
front tracks into the Gulf for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-031345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 15 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

108 
FZAK61 PAFC 031212
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-040215-
312 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front enters the southern Gulf this morning and pushes to the
northern coast this afternoon. This front remains nearly
stationary through Tue afternoon then weakens as it moves inland.
An associated low develops near 58N 150W at 984 mb later this 
afternoon then tracks to Cordova by early Tue afternoon and 
dissipates as it moves inland. The next front moves to the southern 
Gulf Tue afternoon moving to the northern Gulf by early Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ351-040215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
312 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S up to 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-040215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
312 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...SE to SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper-level trough over the Alaskan mainland has a closed
center over the northwestern Gulf with a positively-tilted trough
axis extending southwestward across the Gulf and into the north
Pacific. Upper-level ridging is currently prevailing across the
the Bering/Aleutians. A second upper-level trough is currently
over the northern Kamchatka Peninsula with its trough-axis moving
eastward toward the western Bering/Aleutians. The polar jet
currently extends southeastward from the central Bering to near
47N 155W and then northeastward to southeast Alaska. The
subtropical jet remains south of 45N over the north Pacific
through 140W and then extends northeastward to over southern
British Columbia.

At the lower levels, snow showers continue to move northwestward
across the central Gulf to the southern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
William Sound and southern Chugach. King Salmon radar shows
widespread light snow slowly moving southwestward across the
Kvichak Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement at both the surface and
upper-levels with respect to the overall synoptic pattern across
the area through the weekend. Some of the high-resolution models
were used to try and refine the forecast around the snow showers
in the eastern part of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light winds are expected through
tomorrow. The biggest question will be whether a snow shower or
two is able to make it across the Chugach Mountains this afternoon
or early evening. Even if some snow showers do make it to the
terminal, conditions should remain MVFR or better.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A stalled surface low centered in the northern Gulf is currently
bringing widespread snow showers to the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
Portage Valley and Prince William Sound areas. These will continue
into early Friday morning and may be heavy at times, briefly
reducing visibility. It is possible that some may reach Anchorage
this evening, however would likely be brief and not cause any
significant impacts. Snow showers will gradually taper off through
Friday for most areas, although they are expected to continue
across Prince William Sound into Saturday. As high pressure
strengthens over the interior on Saturday, gusty northerly winds
will develop in the usual Chugach terrain gaps, however weak
dynamics aloft will inhibit surface winds from increasing to
anything significant. Skies will clear Saturday afternoon through
early Sunday morning, leading to colder temperatures across
Southcentral. A front will move into the area Sunday afternoon,
bringing the next chance of snow to the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An Arctic trough over Southwest AK will continue shifting east. A
deformation band associated with a Gulf low continues to bring
light snow in the Alaska Range/foothills, which should diminish
Friday morning. While temperatures remain well below normal over
the Southwest Mainland, winds have diminished. Friday will be
another very cold dry day, with a pattern change on the horizon. A
shortwave trough moving east through the northern Bering will
bring a transition to south winds and warmer conditions Saturday.
Precipitation is possible in coastal areas. Interior areas such as
the middle to lower Kuskokwim Valley and the Nushagak River
Valley will be slower to warm up and will likely remain dry
Saturday. Sunday looks to be a much more significant warm up... a
North Pacific low expected to track south of the western Aleutians
will swing an elongated front northeastward across the Aleutians
toward the west coast. This will bring a swift warm up and a
heftier bout of precipitation which should make it inland. Highs
Sunday will generally be around 20 degrees warmer than Saturday in
most areas. Precipitation will remain snow Sunday, though there's
a chance of changing over to rain along the AKPEN late Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
An Arctic trough axis over Southwest AK continues shifting
eastward. Snow showers over the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN will
continue to dissipate tonight. A trough in the western Bering will
shift eastward, bringing enhanced snow showers to Adak/Atka and
east to Unalaska and the Pribilof Islands Friday. A storm force
low will approach the western Aleutians from the western Pacific
Friday into Saturday. Winds will shift to southerly, then easterly
over the Aleutians. The low will have a moisture fetch reaching
nearly into the Tropics, bringing steady rain to the Aleutians
Saturday. The associated front will lift north into the Bering
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sunday through Tuesday)...
Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters: A ~950 mb low will be
located near the Rat Islands Sunday afternoon, with sustained
high-end gales and storm force gusts expected on the backside of
this system across the western Aleutians and Bering. The low then
moves to just west of the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday, with
sustained winds having decreased below gales by then.

As for seas, given a long dynamic fetch, seas of 25 to 30 feet are
anticipated on Sunday across the western Bering and south of the
Aleutian chain west of Dutch Harbor decreasing into the 5 to 15
feet range north of the chain and east of 175W. These waves then
subside further for Monday and Tuesday as the storm system
weakens.

Gulf of Alaska: A sustained gale force front will enter the Gulf
on Sunday from west to east, before the front stretches out
parallel to the coast on Monday as it weakens. As it does so
winds will decrease towards the small craft variety, with a few
gales still possible near the Copper River Delta. By Tuesday winds
will remain below 20 knots. As the front crosses the region, waves
will build into the 15 to 20 feet range for Sunday into Monday
before decreasing on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)...
A pattern change looks to commence over the next several days as
a fairly strong storm system reaches the west central Aleutians
Tuesday morning, moving into the Pribilof Islands by later that
evening. As it does so a warm front will surge north and east
bringing increased warmth and moisture aloft, which translates
to temperatures moderating towards normal for the middle portion
of the week for the central Aleutians eastward through southwest
and southcentral Alaska. Precipitation potential will also
increase ahead of these features.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130.
 Gale Warning 120 131 132 136 138 150 155 176>178.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 129>132 136>139 141 150 155 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD