Gale Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK52 PAFC 311213
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010130-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb North Kamchatka low swings to 90 nm Northwest of
Mekoryuk at 1005 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front pushes into the 
Eastern Aleutians and Bering by Sat afternoon. A 974 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 275 nm South of Kiska at 947 mb for Sat 
afternoon. Its front slides over the Aleutians through Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except NW 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt
after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010130-
Bristol Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-010130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt except NW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, N wind 20 kt in the
evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010130-
Unalaska Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 23 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010130-
Adak to Kiska-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side...25 ft Pacific side. 
Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010130-
Kiska to Attu-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-010130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-010130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
811 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough across the western half of the state has a
closed center located between Kodiak Island and the southern Kenai
Peninsula. Ridging borders to the east and west of the trough
with another upper level trough farther west over the northern
Kamchatka Peninsula. At the surface, snow showers continue to
develop across the Gulf and eastern Bering as upper level
shortwaves slowly pinwheel around the low center aloft. A few of
the snow showers are making it inland before dissipating. The
gustiest winds this morning are across the Alaska Peninsula where
visibilities in blowing snow are reduced to one half mile at
times.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through Friday. Only minor changes were needed for the
morning package with higher resolution NAM data favored.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the next TAF package.
Gusty southeasterly flow tapers off this morning as low pressure
over the Kenai Peninsula weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers will continue across the Gulf and Prince William
Sound as a surface low in the western Gulf continues to wrap in
colder air. Winds across most of Southcentral mainland have
diminished overnight as the strong pressure gradient weakened,
which will continue through the day. In the upper levels, a trough
over the mainland will continue to lift northward tonight through
Friday, helping to spread snow showers inland into the Copper
River Basin.

As the upper level trough slides eastward through Friday, a
progressive wave pattern develops, with a ridge building in behind
the trough. This will help to strengthen the pressure gradient
over the western Gulf. The pressure gradient along with weak cold
air advection moving in will help to increase winds across
Southcentral on Friday. The strongest winds are expected out of
bays and passes of Shelikof Strait as well as Kamishak Bay out to
the Barren Islands, with winds peaking Friday afternoon and
evening. Seward, Whittier, and Valdez are also expected to see an
increase in winds Friday through Saturday as the upper ridge nears
and offshore flow strengthens over Southcentral. After a warm-up
in temperatures region-wide on Wednesday, temperatures will trend
colder over the next couple days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An arctic trough remains over the coastal portion of Southwest
Alaska with a secondary upper level trough centered over the
Alaska Range, Cook Inlet, and Kodiak Island. This second trough
is supporting weak deformation banded snow across the Alaska
Peninsula northward to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning.
This activity will taper off through tonight as the upper low
moves east. Dry weather dominates elsewhere with the exception
being the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island where satellite
imagery tonight is picking up impressive ocean-effect "streamer"
snow showers, along with some reported areas of blowing snow from
Hooper Bay to Toksook Bay. These persistent northerly winds are
also still supporting wind chill values below -40F, so the wind
chill advisory will remain until midday as winds slowly taper and
temps slowly recover. Temps drop right back tonight, but winds
will also be much lighter.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Widespread snow showers continue to move across most of the Bering
Sea as two regimes are in place. One is a continued area of
northerly cyclonic flow over the Eastern Aleutians which is
supporting snow squalls and blowing snow from False Pass to Port
Heiden. West of the Pribilof Islands, a trough axis has shifted
the flow direction to westerly, which is also warmer than the
aforementioned deep arctic air mass. The trough axis will slowly
shift east and strengthen, and will bring enhanced snow showers
from Adak/Atka east to the Pribs and Dutch Harbor Thursday night
and Friday. Snow squalls will weaken considerably by late morning,
so the winter weather advisory for the Alaska Peninsula will end
later today.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
Gulf of Alaska: Strong northwesterly flow is expected to continue
for the Western Gulf through Saturday. This will create gale
force winds, especially through gaps and passes. Saturday night
into Sunday, this flow will diminish easing winds and seas. A
shift to southerly flow can be expected Sunday. We have a moderate
amount of confidence in the forecast. We are confident in
northwesterly flow and the pattern shift Sunday, but wind speed
may need to be adjusted a bit.

Bering Sea: A low in the Western Aleutians Saturday will bring
strong gales and a few areas of storm forces winds to the area. It
will weaken as it moves east through Monday, allowing winds and
seas to calm to small craft advisory by Monday. There is moderate
confidence in this forecast. High confidence with low pressure in
the Bering, though wind speeds will likely need to be adjusted.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...
The upper level long wave trough currently over Alaska still
looks to shift east on Saturday. This will allow the ridge that is
currently over the Bering Sea and Aleutians to move east over
Southcentral AK. Over the weekend this high pressure will keep
cold air in place over Southcentral AK that will have moved in on
the backside of low pressure currently over Southcentral AK.
Meanwhile out in the Bering, a long wave trough will be digging
south with an anchoring low over the western Aleutians, meaning
unsettled weather in the Bering.

By early next week, movement of this high and continued
development of the long wave trough in the Bering will cause a
significant pattern shift for our forecast area. On Monday, the
axis of the high will move east to be located over Western Canada,
with low pressure over the central Bering. This will create stormy
conditions for the Bering and Southwest Alaska and broad southwest
flow over Southcentral, which should warm temperatures quite a
bit. Models are actually in good agreement for this pattern change
to occur. They have differences of exact location of the high and
low, but all are capturing the same general synoptic flow. This
gives us an above average confidence level in the long term, but
as usual figuring out specific weather systems will have to wait
until the forecast is in the short term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 181.
         Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130.
         Gale Warning 131 138 150 155.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 131 132 136 137 138
                                      139 141 150 155 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB