Gale Warning 273, NWS Anchorage, AK

916 
FZAK52 PAFC 131143
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140000-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front stretching from the Rat Islands to the eastern tip of
Russia Fri morning will move little through the weekend while 
weakening. A north Pacific low will approach the central Aleutians on
Sunday.


$$

PKZ150-140000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140000-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt.
.MON...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-140000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Heavy freezing spray E of Port Moller in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140000-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140000-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt except variable less than 10 kt E of 179E. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140000-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight west of Attu. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt, except 15 kt S of Cape Newenham.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt, except 15 kt S of Cape Newenham..
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.MON...E wind 15 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-140000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Snow, rain and light freezing rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Snow, rain and light freezing rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-140000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft. Snow, rain and light 
freezing rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A low is centered near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Its associated
front is currently tracking across the western Aleutians,
bringing rain and gusty southerly winds to that area this morning.
A ridge encompasses the remainder of the Bering and Southwest
Alaska leading to clear skies and cold temperatures across
interior regions. Cold, dry air likewise remains in place over
Southcentral with northerly gap winds diminishing as low pressure
weakens over the Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models continue to be in very good agreement. The
high resolution models are preferred due to the better handling of
gap winds. Forecast confidence is above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and generally light northerly winds will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper-level trough moving south over the Copper River Basin
this morning will enhance the gusty outflow winds through favored
gaps and passes today. The strongest of these winds will once
again be from eastern Prince William Sound to the Copper River
Delta, including Valdez and Thompson Pass. Winds will quickly
increase early this morning and reach peak intensity mid- morning
through mid-afternoon as the trough departs and the winds both
near the surface and aloft align in a northeasterly direction
ahead of an advancing and strengthening upper-level ridge. A high
wind warning has been issued for Thompson Pass with gusts expected
to reach 75 mph. As the ridge tracks east, the winds will slowly
taper off through the nighttime hours, with calmer conditions
expected beginning Friday and remaining through the weekend.

Mainly clear and dry conditions will also persist as the ridge
builds overhead and becomes the dominant weather feature over
Southcentral. With the ridge in place, the strong northerly flow
responsible for the intrusion of arctic air will shut off as a
weak southerly flow develops, especially over the western half of
Southcentral. This will allow for a gradual warming trend through
the weekend with daytime temperatures climbing to around or
slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level ridge beginning to move over Southwest Alaska this
morning will help to keep relatively quiet conditions throughout
the day. Clear skies will persist throughout the day as the
temperatures across the region begin to warm slightly. This upper
level ridge will then move across the southern mainland on
Friday, with a Bering front moving in behind this feature. Most
areas will remain dry through Friday, with areas west of Bethel in
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast likely to see a chance of precipitation
and stronger winds moving in. These areas from Hooper Bay to
Toksook Bay will initially start out as snow as the front edges
over the mainland, but will possibly see a period of mixed
precipitation on Saturday as temperatures warm to near the
freezing mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A storm force low over the western Bering and Aleutians this
morning will continue its path into the northern Bering through
this evening, with winds diminishing by Friday morning. High
pressure over the southern mainland and Gulf of Alaska will keep
the front from progressing into the eastern Bering and Southwest
Alaska. A band of precipitation will set up over the central
Aleutians and Bering starting tonight and continuing through the
weekend. This warm southerly fetch will bring an ample amount of
moisture to the region, resembling an atmospheric river pattern.
With the ridge holding in place to the east, Dutch Harbor could
see up to 2 inches of rain beginning this evening through late
Saturday. There could be a brief period of snow with little
accumulation initially as the front moves over the area, but this
will quickly transition to all rain as the warmer temperatures
move into the area. Areas along the Alaska Peninsula will see a
chance of snow showers overnight tonight throughout the weekend,
but no significant accumulation is expected as the bulk of
precipitation will stay over the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A storm force system over the northern Bering will keep an area
of storm force to high end gale force winds west of Saint Matthew
Island and north of 56N on Thursday. By Friday, this system will
have weakened, but enhanced winds and rough seas are still
anticipated into Saturday. Shifting to the North Pacific, a low
will approach the central and eastern Aleutians Thursday night,
bringing the next round of precipitation to the eastern Aleutians,
including Dutch Harbor, through Friday night. A ridge will set up
over the Gulf of Alaska and mainland. Once this ridge gets
established, the active corridor for low tracks will be the NW
Pacific to the western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The global models continue to bring a high amplitude ridge into
the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral. This will keep clear skies
and dry weather over most of southcentral Alaska. However, the
weather will be active over the western/central Aleutians and
western/central Bering. With the block in place over Southcentral,
the lows will follow the path of least resistance. The ridge
remains steadfast through Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 131.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119 121 129 130 165.
         Storm Warning: 185.
         Gale Warning: 121 127 128 165 170 172 177 178
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS