Brisk Wind Advisory 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

191 
FZAK52 PAFC 122334
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131245-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front stretched from southwest to northeast across the western 
Bering will move to the Central Bering Sea extending through Adak
this evening. This front will then remain stationary and dissipate.

$$

PKZ150-131245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131245-
Bristol Bay-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray, except heavy freezing spray from Port Moller E.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray, except heavy
freezing spray from Port Moller E.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131245-
Unalaska Bay-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131245-
Adak to Kiska-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131245-
Kiska to Attu-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 1 foot in the evening 
becoming 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 PM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level ridge over the central and eastern Bering
Sea. There is an upper level trough over northwest Canada, with
northwesterly flow aloft over most of mainland Alaska. A surface
high is centered over the far eastern Bering and Southwest
Alaska. Low level offshore flow is over most of southern Alaska
into the Gulf. A strong front associated with a low just to the
west of the Kamchatka Peninsula is over the far western Bering
just west of the western Aleutians. Conditions are dry over almost
all of southern Alaska and the Aleutians with almost no
precipitation.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models continue to be in very good agreement. The
high resolution models are preferred due to the better handling of
gap winds. Forecast confidence is above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry and cold persists through the end of the work week. Gusty
offshore flow through gap terrain increases overnight as an upper
level disturbance dives toward the northern Gulf from the
interior. Gusts should peak during the morning hours on Thursday,
then taper down during the afternoon. Marine areas near the coasts
are expected to experience heavy freezing spray with gusty winds
tonight through Thursday. Clear and calmer conditions are
expected to set up across the southern mainland on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Dry and cold weather will continue for Southwest Alaska through
tomorrow morning before an upper level ridge begins to build into
the area during the day Thursday. This will lead to a moderation
in temperatures through Saturday with each day warmer than the
previous.

Upper level energy associated with a low pressure over the North
Pacific will be drawn northward on the west side of the upper
level ridge Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. As this
continues north, precipitation chances will increase for the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast beginning Friday afternoon through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge currently across the western Bering will
continue moving eastward into the central and eastern Bering
tonight into Thursday keeping the weather across the area quiet.

A storm force low will move northward through the North Pacific
and into Russia overnight into Thursday. The front associated
with this low will move into the western Aleutians and western
Bering tonight bringing rain to Shemya and Attu Island. As this
front continues to move across the Aleutian Chain, it will
gradually slow down and even stall over the islands west of
Amchitka.

A low spinning over the North Pacific about 800 nm south of Dutch
Harbor will have some of the energy associated with it drawn
northward towards the central Aleutians and central to eastern
Bering Sea Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A warm
southerly flow will bring in milder air on the backside of the
upper level ridge bringing mostly rain and widespread
precipitation to the region. This will cause the aforementioned
front moving east across the western Bering and western Aleutians
to slow down and stall. As it stalls the front will be stretched
and sheared apart as some weak upper level ridging tries to build
into the western Aleutians Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A storm force system over the northern Bering will keep an area
of storm force to high end gale force winds west of St Matthew
Island and north of 56N on Thursday. By Friday, this system will
have weakened, but enhanced winds and rough seas are still
anticipated into Saturday. Shifting to the North Pacific, a low
will approach the central and eastern Aleutians Thursday night,
bringing the next round of precipitation to the eastern Aleutians,
including Dutch Harbor, through Friday night. A ridge will set up
over the Gulf Of Alaska and mainland. Once this ridge gets
established, the active corridor for low tracks will be the NW
Pacific to the Western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The global models continue to bring a high amplitude ridge into
the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral. This will keep clear skies
and dry weather over most of Southcentral Alaska. However, the
weather will be active over the western/central Aleutians and
western/central Bering. With the block in place over
Southcentral, the lows will follow the path of least resistance.
The ridge remains steadfast through Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind warning 131.
MARINE...Storm 411 412. Gales 130-132 138 150 155 172 178 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA/MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS