Gale Warning 269, NWS Anchorage, AK

409 
FZAK52 PAFC 112322
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121245-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A strong front extending from a low over the southern Kamchatka 
Peninsula in an arc to the northwest Bering Sea then south across 
the western Aleutians will move to the Central Bering Sea
extending through Adak Thursday evening. This front will then
remain stationary and dissipate. 

$$

PKZ150-121245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-121245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-121245-
Bristol Bay-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt.
.MON...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-121245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-121245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-121245-
Unalaska Bay-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-121245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-121245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-121245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-121245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-121245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-121245-
Adak to Kiska-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-121245-
Kiska to Attu-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-121245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-121245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-121245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.THU...S wind 35 kt.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-121245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt increasing to
30 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt
increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
.THU...S wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 50 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

515 
FZAK52 PAFC 121134
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130030-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front over the western Bering and Aleutians Wed morning
will lift into the northern Bering and weaken through Fri morning.
A front developing over the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula will
persists through Sat.

$$

PKZ150-130030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130030-
Bristol Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-130030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray, except heavy
freezing spray from Port Moller E.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray, except heavy freezing spray from 
Port Moller E.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray, except heavy
freezing spray from Port Moller E.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130030-
Unalaska Bay-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130030-
Adak to Kiska-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130030-
Kiska to Attu-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-130030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 24 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 18 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue Mar 10 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level trough axis just west of the Alaska/Canada
border moving slowly eastward. There are some lingering showers
along and east of this axis. Clear skies are over most of the
southern Alaska Mainland to the west of this trough as high
pressure builds in. There is an upper level trough and associated
surface low over the Bering Sea to the north of the western and
central Aleutians. This low is producing some precipitation over
that area, and is moving to the southeast and weakening. High
pressure is building in to the west of this feature.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in very good agreement. The high
resolution models are preferred due to the better handling of gap
winds. Forecast confidence is above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough continues its track east over mainland Alaska. A
steep pressure gradient between the accompanying surface ridge
over northern/interior Alaska and lower pressure/warmer air over
the Gulf will continue to drive gusty offshore winds through the
usual gaps and passes, including Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal,
the Valdez waterways, through Thompson Pass and out of the Copper
River Delta. Otherwise, clear skies prevail as expected with
general offshore flow. Winds should diminish from west to east
tonight and tomorrow. Arctic air will continue to spread
southward, and temperatures should drop substantially tonight...
likely a good 20 degrees colder than Monday night in most of
Southcentral. A ridge building over the Bering will push eastward
Wednesday. Cold air will recede towards the Alcan and conditions
will trend warmer by Thursday. Of note, a shortwave is expected to
track across the top of the ridge Wednesday night, bringing
another period of gusty offshore winds to Whittier, Valdez waters,
Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta late Wednesday night
into Thursday. The ridge axis will become centered over mainland
Alaska by Friday and clear, dry weather will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Dry and cold conditions are expected to continue across Southwest
Alaska tonight through Wednesday. There remains the chance for
snow showers across the Hooper Bay area overnight Wednesday into
Thursday as an upper level wave moves through. Behind this upper
level wave, a strong upper level ridge will build into the region
bringing a significant moderation in temperatures for the
second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Cold northerly flow will continue through the gaps of the Alaska
Peninsula through Wednesday keeping heavy freezing spray in the
forecast along with the gusty winds. While winds will diminish
tonight as the pressure gradient weakens, a front associated with
a low over the Pacific will slowly move north allowing the gap
winds between Dutch Harbor and Cold Bay to increase to small craft
advisory criteria winds once again tomorrow morning into tomorrow
night.

Currently, a mix of rain and snow is falling in Adak as a storm
system moves through. This storm system will continue to weaken as
it tracks southward due to a strong upper level ridge building
into the western Bering and western Aleutians. This upper level
ridge will aid in the weakening of the upper level wave associated
with the storm system moving through Adak shearing and stretching
the energy apart.

The focus then shifts to a storm force low moving northward in the
North Pacific towards Russia. The front is expected to begin
impacting the western side of the Aleutian Chain and western
Bering Wednesday night into Thursday with widespread
precipitation. This precipitation will mainly be in the form of
rain as a strong southerly push of warm air at 850 mb helps to
warm the air at the surface well above freezing. Strong southerly
winds are also expected due to the tight pressure gradient between
the low pressure over the North Pacific and the high to the east.
As a result, gale to storm force winds are expected across a wide
swath of the western Bering and western Aleutians. Due to the
strength of the upper level ridge to the east, this front will
stall across the central Bering with a weakening precipitation
shield as the front becomes elongated.

The aforementioned front lifting toward the Alaska Peninsula on
Wednesday will continue northward into the Bering Sea Thursday
night through Friday. This will bring widespread precipitation
and small craft advisory winds to the eastern Aleutians, southern
Alaska Peninsula and on northward into the eastern Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Thursday and Friday, the offshore and enhanced gap winds will
continue across the Barren Islands and the Copper River Delta.
These winds will slack off late Friday.

A storm force system over the northern Bering will keep an area
of storm force to high end gale force winds west of St Matthew
Island and north of 56N on Thursday. By Friday, this system will
have lost its gusto but enhanced winds and rough seas still
anticipated into Saturday. Shifting to the North Pacific, a low
will approach the central and eastern Aleutians Thursday night,
bringing the next round of precipitation to the eastern Aleutians,
including Dutch Harbor, through Friday night. A ridge will set up
over the Gulf Of Alaska and mainland. Once this ridge gets
established, the active corridor for low tracks will be the NW
Pacific to the Western Bering. This ridge is expected through
Tuesday March 18th.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Both the GFS and ECMWF ping into an "Omega Block" setting up over
the Gulf of Alaska. This will keep clear skies and dry weather
over most of Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures will continue to
run slightly below normal. However, the weather will be active
over the Western Aleutians and Western Bering. But at this time,
none of these systems look particularly ominous. The ridge remains
steadfast the entire forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 127 128 130-132 138 150 155 172 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB/MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS