Gale Warning 244, NWS Anchorage, AK

277 
FZAK52 PAFC 021232
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030130-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 mb low 35 nm southwest of Amchitka Mon morning moves to 
the North Pacific and dissipates by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030130-
Bristol Bay-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-030130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030130-
Unalaska Bay-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030130-
Adak to Kiska-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030130-
Kiska to Attu-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 56N.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of
55N.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 55N.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-030130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.WED...W wind 15 kt.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-030130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray south of 61N.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray south of 61N.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray south of 61N.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Early this morning, A mid-level high was centered over Russia,
with a deep mid-level low off the coast of the North Slope, with a
trough extending from it into the Kuskokwim Delta. Another mid-
level low centered near the Rat Islands. A large swath of
southwesterly flow ahead of this low extended from the central
Aleutians into Southcentral. This was part of a 200 knot upper
level jet streak that was currently centered just south of Cold
Bay.

Closer to the surface, a 970 mb low was moving from the eastern
Bering towards the coast of southwest Alaska, with another
surface low near the Rat Islands. Effects of the jet stream
disturbance mentioned above was easily seen on various types of
satellite data, with several mountain waves propagating across the
central Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Areas radars continued to
show widespread precipitation moving across most (we only have
partial radar coverage) of the southern half of the state, and
adjacent coastal waters.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models remain in pretty good agreement aloft through
the middle of next week, as an Omega block develops by then.
Thereafter, continuity is still better than average, with just
some amplitude/locational differences developing. The surface
solutions look good as well, with a similar trend in good model
continuity seen, with just a few differences similar to what was
mentioned above.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow will continue to move through the terminal for the
next hour or two, with visibilities down to 1 mile or less at
times. Then the snow will become more showery in nature, but some
light fog will persist. A Turnagain Arm wind (a portion of the
Cook Inlet) may make it to the field this afternoon, bringing
gusts near 20 knots. A steadier snow pattern will also develop
this afternoon, with ceilings and visibilities dropping again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow will come in a series of waves over the majority of
Southcentral through tonight and linger into Monday in some areas.
While blowing snow has been occurring through the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and through Turnagain Arm, this will quickly subside.
However, strong southwest winds are expected to kick up over the
Southern Kenai Peninsula this morning along with snowfall which
is the reason for the Blizzard Warning for the area from Clam
Gulch southward. Heaviest snow accumulations will be along the
Homer Bluff and over East End road. Visibility reductions to 1/4
mile at times are expected for the entire Clam Gulch through Homer
area at times through this evening.

Anchorage northward through the Susitna Valley will see snowfall
through tonight with the Susitna Valley expected to see 8 to 15
inches of snow. The southwest flow aloft should mean the heaviest
snow will occur north of Talkeetna. Southwest flow aloft is also
a good pattern for heavy snowfall over Hatcher Pass.

The Copper River Basin is also susceptible for some persistent
snowfall. While some light snow will occur today, it will increase
this evening when the downsloping off the CHugach mountains fully
ends. The snowfall in the Copper River Basin should last into
Monday and could warrant an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

As a strong low nears the coast early this morning, colder air
is wrapping around the backside of this low. This will allow any
lingering rain or wintry mix of precipitation to change over to
snow. Gusty southwesterly flow will continue along the Bristol Bay
coast through Sunday night before tapering off Monday. As the low
moves inland, northerly flow will return across the southwest
allowing cold and dry arctic air to move in over the region
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
2)...

As the strong low center continues to move into the eastern
Bering, storm force winds will progress eastward along the
Aleutians. Both the Bering side and Pacific side will see strong
gusty winds through Sunday. On the backside of this low, cold
northerly flow will return to the Bering by Sunday night. A weaker
low looks to spin up Sunday night over the Rat Islands. This low
could potentially produce gale force winds as it gradually moves
south of the Aleutian Chain Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A low in the Gulf will exit to the east and weaken Tue to Wed.
Expect enhanced NW winds over the Barren Islands, likely to gale
force with broader areas hitting small craft advisory level
elsewhere in the Gulf. Meanwhile, looking out west, steady
anticyclonic flow will enhance gap winds south of the AKPEN. The
next low will approach from the eastern Pacific Wed to Thu,
potentially bringing gales and heavier seas to the Bering Sea by
Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of AK will pull east and weaken Tue into Wed,
leading to cold, dry conditions and generally offshore flow
inland. Meanwhile, a ridge will build over the Bering Sea and dry
weather will persist over the Southwest Mainland through Thu. A
low will approach the western Aleutians Wed into Thu, and track
into the eastern Bering by Fri. The Arctic high looks to weaken
and recede towards the Alcan later in the week, indicating a trend
towards warmer conditions over Southern Alaska. A sacrificial
front associated with the Bering low will push into the Southwest
Mainland Fri to Sat; precipitation doesn't look to amount to much
over the mainland. A more robust system will approach the
Aleutians Fri to Sat, bringing a better chance for precipitation
across the mainland Sat or Sun.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 121 155 161
         Winter Weather Advisory 125 145 152
MARINE...Storm Warning 131 132 138 150 160 165 170 180
         Gale Warning 119 120 130 137 139 140 141 171 172 173 174
         175 177 181 351 352 414
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 139 179 185

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EX
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.56N 151.27W
03/01/2020  E6.5 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 6.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1111 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     BLIZZARD         KIPNUK                  59.93N 164.03W
02/29/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            KIPNUK AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 12:25PM AKST ON THE 29TH
            THROUGH 7:56PM AKST ON THE 29TH.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     BLIZZARD         MEKORYUK                60.37N 166.27W
03/01/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            MEKORYUK AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 1:39PM AKST ON THE 29TH
            THROUGH 7:34AM AKST ON THE 01ST.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1115 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     BLIZZARD         HOOPER BAY              61.52N 166.13W
03/01/2020                   KUSILVAK           AK   ASOS

            HOOPER BAY AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 1:41AM AKST ON THE 01ST
            THROUGH 7:56AM AKST ON THE 01ST.

&&

ED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1249 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

AKZ101-111-021900-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
1249 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...Heads-Up for Monday Morning Commuters...

For those venturing out on Monday morning, expect continued light
snowfall through your commute with the possibility of slippery
conditions and low visibilities. Snow will being falling again
this evening. Several inches are expected to accumulate in locations
from the Matanuska Valley down through the Anchorage Bowl. In
general, about 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher
amounts at higher elevations. This snow will once again be dry
and fluffy, so it could easily drift around from vehicle traffic.
The snow event will slowly come to an end around midday Monday.

For the latest on road conditions, please call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov. Please allow extra time and space when traveling.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
211 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     BLIZZARD         NUNAPITCHUK             60.91N 162.44W
02/29/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            NUNAPITCHUK ASOS RECORDED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS STARTING AT 2:39PM AKST ON THE
            29TH AND CONTINUED UNTIL 2:56AM AKST ON THE
            30TH.

&&

ED