Brisk Wind Advisory 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Early this morning, A mid-level high was centered over Russia,
with a deep mid-level low off the coast of the North Slope, with a
trough extending from it into the Kuskokwim Delta. Another mid-
level low centered near the Rat Islands. A large swath of
southwesterly flow ahead of this low extended from the central
Aleutians into Southcentral. This was part of a 200 knot upper
level jet streak that was currently centered just south of Cold
Bay.

Closer to the surface, a 970 mb low was moving from the eastern
Bering towards the coast of southwest Alaska, with another
surface low near the Rat Islands. Effects of the jet stream
disturbance mentioned above was easily seen on various types of
satellite data, with several mountain waves propagating across the
central Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Areas radars continued to
show widespread precipitation moving across most (we only have
partial radar coverage) of the southern half of the state, and
adjacent coastal waters.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models remain in pretty good agreement aloft through
the middle of next week, as an Omega block develops by then.
Thereafter, continuity is still better than average, with just
some amplitude/locational differences developing. The surface
solutions look good as well, with a similar trend in good model
continuity seen, with just a few differences similar to what was
mentioned above.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow will continue to move through the terminal for the
next hour or two, with visibilities down to 1 mile or less at
times. Then the snow will become more showery in nature, but some
light fog will persist. A Turnagain Arm wind (a portion of the
Cook Inlet) may make it to the field this afternoon, bringing
gusts near 20 knots. A steadier snow pattern will also develop
this afternoon, with ceilings and visibilities dropping again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow will come in a series of waves over the majority of
Southcentral through tonight and linger into Monday in some areas.
While blowing snow has been occurring through the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and through Turnagain Arm, this will quickly subside.
However, strong southwest winds are expected to kick up over the
Southern Kenai Peninsula this morning along with snowfall which
is the reason for the Blizzard Warning for the area from Clam
Gulch southward. Heaviest snow accumulations will be along the
Homer Bluff and over East End road. Visibility reductions to 1/4
mile at times are expected for the entire Clam Gulch through Homer
area at times through this evening.

Anchorage northward through the Susitna Valley will see snowfall
through tonight with the Susitna Valley expected to see 8 to 15
inches of snow. The southwest flow aloft should mean the heaviest
snow will occur north of Talkeetna. Southwest flow aloft is also
a good pattern for heavy snowfall over Hatcher Pass.

The Copper River Basin is also susceptible for some persistent
snowfall. While some light snow will occur today, it will increase
this evening when the downsloping off the CHugach mountains fully
ends. The snowfall in the Copper River Basin should last into
Monday and could warrant an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

As a strong low nears the coast early this morning, colder air
is wrapping around the backside of this low. This will allow any
lingering rain or wintry mix of precipitation to change over to
snow. Gusty southwesterly flow will continue along the Bristol Bay
coast through Sunday night before tapering off Monday. As the low
moves inland, northerly flow will return across the southwest
allowing cold and dry arctic air to move in over the region
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
2)...

As the strong low center continues to move into the eastern
Bering, storm force winds will progress eastward along the
Aleutians. Both the Bering side and Pacific side will see strong
gusty winds through Sunday. On the backside of this low, cold
northerly flow will return to the Bering by Sunday night. A weaker
low looks to spin up Sunday night over the Rat Islands. This low
could potentially produce gale force winds as it gradually moves
south of the Aleutian Chain Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A low in the Gulf will exit to the east and weaken Tue to Wed.
Expect enhanced NW winds over the Barren Islands, likely to gale
force with broader areas hitting small craft advisory level
elsewhere in the Gulf. Meanwhile, looking out west, steady
anticyclonic flow will enhance gap winds south of the AKPEN. The
next low will approach from the eastern Pacific Wed to Thu,
potentially bringing gales and heavier seas to the Bering Sea by
Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of AK will pull east and weaken Tue into Wed,
leading to cold, dry conditions and generally offshore flow
inland. Meanwhile, a ridge will build over the Bering Sea and dry
weather will persist over the Southwest Mainland through Thu. A
low will approach the western Aleutians Wed into Thu, and track
into the eastern Bering by Fri. The Arctic high looks to weaken
and recede towards the Alcan later in the week, indicating a trend
towards warmer conditions over Southern Alaska. A sacrificial
front associated with the Bering low will push into the Southwest
Mainland Fri to Sat; precipitation doesn't look to amount to much
over the mainland. A more robust system will approach the
Aleutians Fri to Sat, bringing a better chance for precipitation
across the mainland Sat or Sun.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 121 155 161
         Winter Weather Advisory 125 145 152
MARINE...Storm Warning 131 132 138 150 160 165 170 180
         Gale Warning 119 120 130 137 139 140 141 171 172 173 174
         175 177 181 351 352 414
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 139 179 185

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EX
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.56N 151.27W
03/01/2020  E6.5 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 6.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1111 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     BLIZZARD         KIPNUK                  59.93N 164.03W
02/29/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            KIPNUK AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 12:25PM AKST ON THE 29TH
            THROUGH 7:56PM AKST ON THE 29TH.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     BLIZZARD         MEKORYUK                60.37N 166.27W
03/01/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            MEKORYUK AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 1:39PM AKST ON THE 29TH
            THROUGH 7:34AM AKST ON THE 01ST.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1115 AM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     BLIZZARD         HOOPER BAY              61.52N 166.13W
03/01/2020                   KUSILVAK           AK   ASOS

            HOOPER BAY AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS FROM 1:41AM AKST ON THE 01ST
            THROUGH 7:56AM AKST ON THE 01ST.

&&

ED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1249 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

AKZ101-111-021900-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
1249 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...Heads-Up for Monday Morning Commuters...

For those venturing out on Monday morning, expect continued light
snowfall through your commute with the possibility of slippery
conditions and low visibilities. Snow will being falling again
this evening. Several inches are expected to accumulate in locations
from the Matanuska Valley down through the Anchorage Bowl. In
general, about 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher
amounts at higher elevations. This snow will once again be dry
and fluffy, so it could easily drift around from vehicle traffic.
The snow event will slowly come to an end around midday Monday.

For the latest on road conditions, please call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov. Please allow extra time and space when traveling.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
211 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     BLIZZARD         NUNAPITCHUK             60.91N 162.44W
02/29/2020                   BETHEL             AK   ASOS

            NUNAPITCHUK ASOS RECORDED BLIZZARD
            CONDITIONS STARTING AT 2:39PM AKST ON THE
            29TH AND CONTINUED UNTIL 2:56AM AKST ON THE
            30TH.

&&

ED