Gale Warning 222, NWS Anchorage, AK

394 
FZAK62 PAFC 041213
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050200-
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

High pressure moves from the central Bering Wed morning into the
eastern Bering Thu morning. A 993 mb low at 50N 172E Thu morning 
moves to 56N 175W at 995 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 AM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 to 6 ft.
Freezing spray.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to
8 ft.

$$

636 
FZAK62 PAFC 050003
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051430-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

High pressure over the Bering Sea will slide east over Southwest 
Alaska Thu morning. A 993 mb low at 46N 469E will move to 56N 179W 
at 990 mb late Thu afternoon then to 57N 173W at 1005 mb Fri 
afternoon. A 998 mb low will form near 54N 166W late Thu evening 
and move to 55N 158W Fri afternoon at 1003 mb.

$$

PKZ411-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
303 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 to 6 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray E of 166 W in the evening.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
3 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
3 to 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

308 
FZAK62 PAFC 051238
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060200-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low 120 nm NE of Shemya Thursday morning will move 110 nm
SE of Cold Bay at 999 mb Friday morning and continue 
southeastward into the Gulf Friday afternoon. A second 1000 mb low
will develop 140 nm NW of Saint Paul Friday morning and move 110
nm NE of Saint Paul Saturday morning. A front will move across 
the western Aleutians and into the Bering Friday afternoon into 
Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ411-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10
ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7
ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

778 
FZAK62 PAFC 060020
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061415-
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low near 56N 180 will move to 58N 164W at 1005 mb Fri
evening and then dissipate. A 988 mb low near 48N 163E Fri
afternoon will move to 56N 179E at 996 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-061415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 6 to 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
320 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10
ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKST Tue Mar 3 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough extending from the eastern interior across
Southcentral and over to the eastern Bering, is tracking
southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula.
This continues to produce areas of snow out ahead of it across
Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin. Areas of light
snow have been observed on the Bethel Doppler radar, with area
observations confirming this. Meanwhile, cold air advection
continues across the region with dry, Arctic air moving into
Southcentral from the northwest. The cold air advection is
combining with tight pressure gradients (between a surface low in
Prince William Sound and a ridge of high pressure in the Bering
Sea) to strengthen winds along the south side of the Alaska
Peninsula, the western Gulf and western Prince William Sound.

Out ahead of the upper level trough axis, snow showers will
continue across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Otherwise, weather across the remainder of the Bering Sea,
Aleutians and southwest Alaska is quiet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in very good agreement with large scale
features over the next few days. The main forecast challenge will
be details of cold advection wind and gap winds along the eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, Gulf coast and Prince William Sound.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Northwesterly low level flow will continue dry air
advection with ceilings lifting. Thus, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. In this flow pattern we often see lower
clouds bank up against the mountains. Expect lower clouds to the
east of the terminal. There is a small chance some of these could
drift into the terminal but, if so, it should be brief in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong and gusty outflow conditions are expected to be the
dominate weather feature over the next couple of days. Cold
interior air will spill south across Southcentral and through
gaps in the Aleutian Range through Wednesday night as high
pressure builds over the interior. Lee side troughing over the
Gulf will contribute to increasing pressure gradients. Strong
winds across the North Gulf Coast and the eastern Kenai Peninsula
will strengthen tonight and Wednesday with the onset of supporting
northerly flow aloft. Strongest wind potential looks to be across
the Valdez zone and through the Copper River Delta where wind
gusts could peak around 80 mph beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continuing into Thursday afternoon. Winds combined with
transportable snow through Thompson Pass will give rise to
blizzard conditions this afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. Gale
to storm force winds are expected over the Western Gulf through
Wednesday with hurricane force gusts across the Barren Islands
tonight and Wednesday with the passage of the upper trough. Cold
temperatures combined with gusty winds will bring low wind chill
potential to Thompson Pass and Broad Pass tonight into early
Thursday.

Light snow or snow showers will likely continue across the north
Gulf into the Copper River Basin until the upper trough moves east
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Wednesday)

A strong disturbance moving through the east central Bering Sea
and Kuskokwim Delta will continue on its southeast trek today,
reaching the coastal waters of the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by
this evening. Abundant lift precedes this feature, with a
sufficient enough surge of moisture seen in the 700 mb fields for
light snow to accompany it. This has shown up nicely over the
last few hours, as the Bethel Doppler radar indicated snowfall
moving into/through the region, with observations confirming
this. With this in mind, slight change to POPs (Probability of
precipitation) were added to most of southwest Alaska for this
afternoon.

The other story with this feature will be the strength of the cold
air advection behind it. The numerical guidance indicates 850 mb
temps (roughly 4,000 feet) dropping into the -20 to -25 deg. C
range from the AKPEN north, with the lower Kuskokwim Valley
perhaps pushing -30 deg. C. This translates to temperatures
struggling to climb to zero this afternoon for most areas north of
the Nushagak Hills, or roughly north of the Quinhagak to Lime
Village line. South of there, readings should top out in the
single digits above zero. Temperatures will drop into the negative
teens from Bristol Bay/King Salmon north tonight, before
rebounding into the single digits on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Wednesday)

The main focus will be across eastern portions of the region with
cold air pouring in behind the disturbance mentioned above. Here,
cold northerly winds over the ice free waters will allow heavy
freezing spray to develop. Accompanied by snow squalls, as low
level instability increases, especially over the open waters. Some
of these squalls will likely reduce visibilities, especially as
they reach the AKPEN, as orographic lift will help enhance cloud
growth/precipitation efficiency. Winds on the south side of the
Peninsula will likely gust into the hurricane force range in and
near bays and passes.

For the remainder of the Bering Sea and Aleutians, a ridge of
high pressure will build from the western Aleutians and Bering
today, into the central Bering and Aleutians by Wednesday. This
will keep these locations relatively dry, before an approaching
front brings more wet weather and warming conditions to the
western end of the Chain by Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Thursday through Saturday)...

A low along the southern half of the Alaska Panhandle will remain
nearly stationary through Friday before moving southeast. A ridge
of high pressure extending from the north Pacific across the
AKPEN and southwest Alaska will shift east into the western Gulf.
Between the two, a strong pressure gradient will produce gales
(with perhaps some storm force gusts) from the AKPEN across
portions of the northern Gulf through early Friday. Winds then
relax across the Gulf late Friday into Saturday as the ridge
settles overhead and the pressure gradient diminishes. For the
Bering, a gale force low will transit from south of Shemya
Thursday to the central Bering by Friday as its front reaches the
southwest coast. A triple-point low is then expected to spin up
near the AKPEN by late Friday and dive south. A ridge will quickly
track across the Aleutians behind this system with another gale
force system moving over the western Aleutians late Friday,
reaching the AKPEN by late Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Friday through Monday)...

The forecast begins with a broad upper-level ridge stretching
across the western half of the state. Farther west, an upper-
level low is moving east from the western Aleutians over the
southern Bering. Both features progress quickly eastward with the
ridge beginning to breakdown and slide south by late Friday as
the upper-level low elongates and shears apart as it enters the
western Gulf. At the surface, this translates to the continuation
of strong outflow winds across the Gulf coast for Friday and a
surface low near the Pribilofs. This low will sweep a front over
the eastern Bering which is expected to reach the southwest coast
and AKPEN by late Friday. By Saturday, a flat ridge tries to
establish itself over the north Pacific and Aleutians but is
quickly pushed eastward to the Gulf as another upper-level low
moves from the western Aleutians late Saturday to the eastern
Bering by Sunday. This keeps the weather unsettled across much of
southern Alaska as a surface low near Shemya sweeps a front from
the Aleutians late Friday to southwest coast by late Saturday.
The surface low then moves inland on Sunday with its front moving
into the northern Gulf with a new triple-point surface low
developing. This low will usher in a moist, southerly flow with
another round of widespread precipitation for interior southwest
and southcentral Alaska. The upper-level trough will remain over
the state through Monday as another polar low drops south into the
eastern Bering, bringing yet another shot of arctic air and snow
showers across the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 141
		 Wind Chill Advisory 145
	     High Wind Watch 141
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 120-139 141 150 155 165 179
		 185 414
		 Gale Warning 120 121 125 127 128 129 136 137 138 155 177
	 	 178 181 414
		 Storm Warning 130 131 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CRK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...TM