Gale Warning 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

675 
FZAK62 PAFC 011234
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020200-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 58N 164W will move into southwest Alaska Sun
afternoon. A 994 mb low Sun Morning at 53N 178W moves to 52N 178 at 
1001 mb Mon morning, then to 50N 171W at 1017 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 58N.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure stretches from central Russia to the
Yukon this morning, with a 967 mb low crossing the west central
Aleutians, and its associated front sweeping eastward across the
eastern Aleutians and Bering Sea. Doppler radar imagery shows some
light returns starting to move into southwestern portions of the
state, but only a few observations of light snow have been
observed thus far. Various types of satellite imagery show a deep
moisture tap accompanying the Aleutians low, with origins from
near Micronesia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in pretty good agreement through the middle of next
week, and even then they remain in fair to decent agreement after
that, with just some amplitude differences in the overall
synoptic pattern. This leads to above average confidence in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
early afternoon, with perhaps some brief fog developing near the
terminal, similar to yesterday. If it does, a few hours of LIFR
ceilings or visibilities are possible, but confidence was
insufficient to include in the forecast. Otherwise, snow with
reduced ceilings, visibilities, and low level wind shear develops
by the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As expected, much more active weather is moving into Southcentral
today and through the rest of the weekend. Snow and Blowing snow
have triggered advisories for the Kenai Peninsula and eastern
Turnagain Arm. The southern part of the Kenai Peninsula toward
Homer will warm up into the mid to upper 30s tomorrow as the winds
turn southwest. However, temperatures aloft will keep most of the
precipitation snow, though some rain may be able to mix-in at
lower elevations. The Homer bluff could see some enhanced snowfall
and blowing and drifting snow Sunday.

The snowfall in Anchorage will be largely driven by the
downsloping winds. However, the atmosphere looks to remain
decoupled with the stronger southeast winds remaining aloft and
not mixing out and displacing the northerly surface winds over the
city. This will still minimize the snowfall over the Anchorage
Bowl through tonight with heavier snowfall possible Sunday after
these winds subside.

The Anchorage Hillside is an interesting situation as they will be
in the southeast winds, but looks to remain cold enough for snow.
The question now is whether the strongest winds will still
diminish enough of the snowfall to keep the snow and blowing snow
down some, or whether there will be significant visibility
reductions with large amounts of drifting snow. At this time it
appears the stronger winds will be higher along the mountains to
mitigate impacts where people and houses are, but there may be
areas along the Anchorage (and Eagle River) Hillside which do see
periods of significant blowing and drifting snow tonight.

With the southwest flow aloft, the setup is good for heavy
snowfall in the Susitna Valley which does have a Winter Weather
Advisory this evening through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A mature low continues to march towards the region. High and mid-
level clouds have already made their way to Pilot Point and King
Salmon. The antecedent airmass was very dry, it may take a little
extra time for the column of air to become saturated. The models
continue to show the precipitation shield advancing into Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta today. The radar at King Salmon has
already detected light returns south of Port Heiden early this
morning. This system will bring a fresh blanket of snow to many
locations in SW AK. Some locations on the Alaska Peninsula and
near Bristol Bay may see more than one type of
precipitation...rain and snow. There is a strong jet that is going
to move directly over the AKPEN in addition to the pressure
gradient forces associated with the actual low. Its going to get
windy and several locations will see blowing snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

Unsettled weather on tap for this forecast period...expect
gusty winds, rough seas and precipitation. There is a frontal
boundary with a low near the central Aleutians and an additional
wave developing along the baroclinic zone in the north Pacific.
The leading surface low is on track to move across the Pribilof
Islands later today and into the eastern Bering early Sunday. A
170+ kt jet core is driving this system and places like Dutch
Harbor and Cold Bay will experience stronger than normal winds.
Expecting widespread gales and storm force winds for numerous
marine zones in associated with this system. In the wake of this
frontal passage anticipate cold air advection.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Mon through Wed)...

Cold northerly flow returns to the Bering early next week. There
is moderate confidence that another strong low approaches the
western Aleutians by Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile over the Gulf, southwesterly gales will persist through
Monday. There is potential for embedded storm force winds. A low
in the northern Gulf Monday night will create strong outflow winds
in the usual places along the Alaska Peninsula (Gulf side) and
Kamishak Bay at least through Wednesday. Storm force gusts are
possible, especially through channeled terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Tue through Fri)...

There is mounting evidence for a highly progressive pattern across
the Bering and southern Mainland next week. An upper level trough
positioned over Mainland Alaska Tuesday afternoon quickly sinks
southward over the Gulf by Wednesday morning. This allows a
building upper level ridge over the Bering to move eastward
Wednesday evening. One feature that model solutions have seemed
to key in on is a stout upper level low interacting with the
ridge over the Bering around Thursday. There is still plenty of
uncertainty with this feature, but run to run consistency has
allowed for increasing confidence in an active pattern for the end
of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 121 125 145 152 155 161
MARINE...Storm Warning 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174
         175 176 412 414
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 177 179 180 181 185 351
         352 411 413
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 177 185 412

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EX
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
949 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

AKZ101-010230-
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian,
and Eklutna
949 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

Snow is expected to develop early this evening across the Anchorage
Bowl and continue through Sunday. Total snowfall of up to 5 inches
is expected across the Anchorage Bowl from this evening through Sunday
evening.

Please visit http://weather.gov/afc for your local forecast