Storm Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

752 
FZAK51 PAFC 020050
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-021400-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 982 mb low over northern Bristol Bay Sunday afternoon quickly 
moves eastward to over Prince William Sound at 989 mb Sunday night.
The low then remains stationary over Prince William Sound at 989
mb through Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-021400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-021400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-021400-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-021400-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-021400-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-021400-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-021400-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind increasing 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-021400-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to near 40 kt near 
Whittier. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-021400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-021400-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 23 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-021400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-021400-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-021400-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-021400-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-021400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft subsiding to 5
ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-021400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-021400-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

711 
FZAK51 PAFC 021234
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030200-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 mb low 10 nm W of Bligh Reef mon morning moves to 40 nm S 
of Cordova at 990 mb Tue morning, then 80 nm SE of Seward at 991 
mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-030200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030200-
Resurrection Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030200-
Prince William Sound-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030200-
Port Valdez-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030200-
Valdez Narrows-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030200-
Valdez Arm-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030200-
Passage Canal-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030200-
Barren Islands East-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030200-
Chiniak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030200-
Marmot Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030200-
Shelikof Strait-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft subsiding to
7 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-030200-
Kachemak Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Mar 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deep 962 mb low over the Bering is moving northeastward. A
trough-axis associated with this low extends southwestward
through the western Aleutians and into the North Pacific. The
jet-stream currently extends northeastward from the sub-tropical
Pacific into Southcentral Alaska. Difluent flow in the upper
levels is occurring over Southwest Alaska as this area is located
in the left-exit region of the jet. High pressure ridging
currently extends northward from the eastern Pacific into the
eastern Gulf.

At the surface, a 1022 mb high is located over the central AlCan
border. Radar imagery shows snow moving into the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement through the middle of next
week and then fair agreement towards the end of the week with the
overall synoptic pattern. Due to the good agreement, the forecast
confidence is above normal. Higher resolution models were favored
for local effects as these models resolve mesoscale effects best.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceilings and visibilities will lower in the MVFR to IFR
range this evening with the onset of snow. Ceiling and
visibilities may improve briefly overnight before diminishing
again in snow Sunday. LLWS will also develop by early evening with
strong southeast winds developing above northerly surface winds.
LLWS should end early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow is currently developing from south to north across the
region. It will gradually increase in intensity through the
evening. For the Anchorage area, approximately 1 to 2 inches are
likely this evening. A brief lull is expected early Sunday morning,
before the surface and upper level flow pattern becomes
unidirectionally southwest. This will allow the snow to persist
through early Monday morning. There is currently good consensus
among the models indicating approximately 7 inches of total
accumulation. Blowing snow is possible along the Hillside this
evening, though visibilities are not expected to be reduced for
extended periods. Scattered snow showers remain possible in a
cold, northerly flow through Tuesday as the associated low
retrogrades near Prince William Sound.

A Winter Weather Advisory will begin this evening for the Susitna
Valley. Upslope flow will enhance snowfall totals, with over a
foot possible in some areas through Monday morning, particularly
between Talkeetna and Chulitna. Winds will remain generally light.
Light snow is likely to persist through Monday in the
aforementioned cold, northerly flow.

Blowing snow remains likely across the western Kenai Peninsula as
well as the Portage Valley, eastern Turnagain Arm and Turnagain
Pass. These will continue through midnight and 6 AM respectively.
Snowfall totals will be similar to Anchorage. Higher-elevated
areas near Homer may briefly see blowing snow as well as a mesolow
tracks near Kachemak Bay on Sunday afternoon.

Areas along northeastern Prince William Sound (Valdez/Cordova)
will likewise see a significant amount of snow, with 20 or more
inches expected through Monday. Periods of blowing snow are
possible through Thompson Pass this evening through Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A strong low continues to move toward the Southwest coast. The
leading edge of the front currently moving inland has brought
gusty winds and snowfall to the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
area, and rain to the southern Alaska Peninsula. The Winter
Weather Advisory initially in place for the Kuskokwim Delta has
been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning due to intensifying winds and
low visibility, especially along the coast. Precipitation type has
been somewhat of a challenge with this forecast, especially
across the interior areas of Bristol Bay, as there is warm
southerly flow aloft that may allow for a rain/snow mix or
possibly freezing rain at times. As the low nears the coast
by early Sunday morning, colder air will wrap around the backside
of the low allowing any lingering rain or rain/snow mix to change
over to snow. Gusty southwesterly flow will continue along the
Bristol Bay coast through Sunday night before tapering off for
Monday. As the low moves inland, northerly flow will return across
Southwest allowing cold Arctic air to move in over the region for
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A strong low centered near the Pribilofs continues to move to the
northeast. Observations confirm a large swath of storm force winds
over the central Aleutians. On the south side of this low, moist
southerly flow has allowed for rain along the Chain, however
colder air on the north side of the low has brought gusty winds,
snowfall, and reduced visibility to the Pribilof Islands at times.
As the low center moves into the eastern Bering, storm force winds
will also progress eastward along the Chain, with both the Bering
side and Pacific side seeing strong gusty winds through Sunday. On
the backside of this low, cold northerly flow will return to the
Bering by Sunday night. Farther west, a second, weaker, low spins
up Sunday night over the Rat Islands. This low could potentially
produce gale force winds as it gradually moves south of the
Aleutian Chain for Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A low in the Gulf will exit to the east and weaken Tue through
Wed. Expect enhanced NW winds over the Barren Islands, likely to
gale force with broader areas hitting small craft advisory level
elsewhere in the Gulf. Meanwhile, looking out west, steady
anticyclonic flow will enhance gap winds south of the AKPEN. The
next low will approach from the eastern Pacific Wed to Thu,
potentially bringing gales and heavier seas to the Bering Sea by
Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of AK will pull east and weaken Tue into Wed,
leading to cold, dry conditions and generally offshore flow
inland. Meanwhile, a ridge will build over the Bering Sea and dry
weather will persist over the Southwest Mainland through Thu. A
low will approach the western Aleutians Wed into Thu, and track
into the eastern Bering by Fri. The Arctic high looks to weaken
and recede towards the Alcan later in the week, indicating a trend
towards warmer conditions over Southern Alaska. A sacrificial
front associated with the Bering low will push into the Southwest
Mainland Fri to Sat; precipitation doesn't look to amount to much
over the mainland. A more robust system will approach the Aleutians
Fri to Sat, bringing a better chance for precipitation across the
mainland Sat or Sun.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155.
         Winter Weather Advisory 121 125 145 152 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 180.
   	Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 132 139 141 177 179 181 185.
    Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM