Gale Warning 210, NWS Anchorage, AK

727 
FZAK51 PAFC 261218
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270115-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 mb low 250 nm S of Middleton Island will move to 45 nm S of 
Middleton Island at 993 mb Thu morning, then move to 50 nm W of 
Yakutat and weaken to 1003 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-270115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and widespread
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270115-
Resurrection Bay-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt during the morning. Seas 4 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270115-
Prince William Sound-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270115-
Port Valdez-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270115-
Valdez Narrows-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270115-
Valdez Arm-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270115-
Passage Canal-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270115-
Barren Islands East-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt except N 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270115-
Chiniak Bay-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270115-
Marmot Bay-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270115-
Shelikof Strait-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-270115-
Kachemak Bay-
318 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge axis lies along 61N from Russia to the Yukon
border. A stacked 973 mb storm force low in the North Pacific
south of Kodiak Island continues its march northeastward, the
first bands of precipitation are reaching Kodiak. Another 977 mb
stacked low sits in the North Pacific southwest of Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have generally agreed on the path of the low as it tracks
into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. Some disagreement arises as
the low approaches Middleton Island Thursday morning, with the GFS
keeping a more westward track. The North Pacific low southwest of
Shemya is also fairly consistent on the recent runs with some
deviation in its dissipation on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds will persist
through the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Wednesday evening)

A low south of Kodiak Island continues to produce storm force
winds ahead of the front for the Barren Islands, Shelikof
Straight, and the southern coastal waters of Kodiak Island.
Speaking of Kodiak, the trend over the last several hours at the
airport has been for winds to gust to near 60 mph with snow and
blowing snow, reducing visibilities to less than one mile. This
trend should continue through about noon, before winds
decrease as the low pressure center approaches. Extending to the
northeast from this low, towards Prince William sound and the
Valdez Narrows/northern Gulf Coast, is an approaching front.

The Middleton Island Doppler radar shows the precipitation
associated with this front making inroads into the Copper Basin
and coastal locations. Meanwhile, the Thompson Pass observations
continue to show winds peaking in the 60 to 65 mph range, which is
likely causing some blowing snow and reduced visibility issues.
Here too, winds should slowly decrease through the afternoon,
before diminishing more quickly this evening as the front
approaches.

For the remainder of Southcentral, winds have occasionally been
gusting above 20 mph near Palmer, as the tight pressure gradient
induced by the approaching front and cold air continuing to funnel
through the passes from the Copper Basin interact to allow for a
Venturi Effect (the increase in wind speeds due to the air
being forced through a more narrow outlet) to keep
this persisting from time to time for the next few hours.

Snowfall from the approaching system should encompass all of
Prince William Sound, the eastern 2/3rds of the Kenai Peninsula,
and at least eastern portions of the Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska
Valley. The snowfall and winds will continue to diminish on
Wednesday, as the low moves into the central Gulf and weakens,
with surface convergence also diminishing as frontolysis (the
dissolving of a front) ensues, with orographic lift/onshore flow
continuing to help give localized boosts to the precipitation
along the coast and the southern and eastern slopes of the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the pattern features a
1040 mb surface high over the interior with a mature low of
971 mb south of the Alaska Peninsula. The enhanced pressure gradient
will result in gusty winds over Bristol Bay and portions of
Southwest Alaska. The models do wrap some moisture into the AKPEN
with this system but most of the region will remain dry this
forecast period. Temperatures will continue to run slightly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A storm force low moves south of the eastern Aleutians and Kodiak
this morning. There is a second mature low south of Attu Island
with a frontal boundary bisecting the Bering and the Aleutian
chain. This front will bring a second wave of unsettled weather to
the region. However, as time elapses the models show the low
decaying and slowly pushing eastward this forecast period. Broad
cyclonic flow will continue to impact the chain with intermittent
precipitation.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat)...
Winds look to remain below gale force from Thursday through Friday
morning. Later Friday a strong system will move into the western
and central Aleutians, and into the Bering Friday night and
Saturday. This system will bring gale to possibly storm force
winds across the western and central Aleutians and most of the
Bering Sea. On Friday night there is also a chance of some
westerly gales through the Barren Islands area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Fri through Mon)...
On Friday morning the pattern will consist of an eastward moving
trough over western Alaska, an east to west oriented ridge across
the central Bering, and a deep trough southwest of the western
Aleutians. On Friday the western Alaska trough slide east across
the area and weaken. A deep upper low in the western trough will
move northeast into the western Aleutians Friday night then into
the Bering on Saturday. This will turn the flow aloft to southwest
over the eastern Bering through southern Alaska, with a fairly
consolidated jet pushing northward. This will result in a fairly
active pattern Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 131 171.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 132 136 138 150
         Gale Warning 119 120 127 128 137 139 155 160 165 351 352
                      411 412
         Heavy Freezing Spray 139 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LTB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1136 AM AKST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             1 ESE KODIAK            57.79N 152.39W
02/25/2020  E5.0 INCH        KODIAK ISLAND      AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            SPOTTER REPORTED 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL
            AS SNOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1137 AM AKST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             2 SE KODIAK STATION     57.74N 152.50W
02/25/2020  E3.5 INCH        KODIAK ISLAND      AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            SPOTTER REPORTED 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
            WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

MV