Brisk Wind Advisory 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

658 
FZAK52 PAFC 261223
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-270115-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 210 nm SE of Shemya Wed morning moves to 155 nm NW 
of Shemya and weakens to 998 mb Thu morning, then moves towards 
the Kamchatka Peninsula Friday morning. An associated front will 
move from the western Aleutians Wed morning into the central 
Aleutians and southern Bering Sea Thu morning, before dissipating 
by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-270115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-270115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-270115-
Bristol Bay-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-270115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-270115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-270115-
Unalaska Bay-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-270115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-270115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-270115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-270115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-270115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-270115-
Adak to Kiska-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-270115-
Kiska to Attu-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-270115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-270115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-270115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-270115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
323 AM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge axis lies along 61N from Russia to the Yukon
border. A stacked 973 mb storm force low in the North Pacific
south of Kodiak Island continues its march northeastward, the
first bands of precipitation are reaching Kodiak. Another 977 mb
stacked low sits in the North Pacific southwest of Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have generally agreed on the path of the low as it tracks
into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. Some disagreement arises as
the low approaches Middleton Island Thursday morning, with the GFS
keeping a more westward track. The North Pacific low southwest of
Shemya is also fairly consistent on the recent runs with some
deviation in its dissipation on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds will persist
through the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Today through Wednesday evening)

A low south of Kodiak Island continues to produce storm force
winds ahead of the front for the Barren Islands, Shelikof
Straight, and the southern coastal waters of Kodiak Island.
Speaking of Kodiak, the trend over the last several hours at the
airport has been for winds to gust to near 60 mph with snow and
blowing snow, reducing visibilities to less than one mile. This
trend should continue through about noon, before winds
decrease as the low pressure center approaches. Extending to the
northeast from this low, towards Prince William sound and the
Valdez Narrows/northern Gulf Coast, is an approaching front.

The Middleton Island Doppler radar shows the precipitation
associated with this front making inroads into the Copper Basin
and coastal locations. Meanwhile, the Thompson Pass observations
continue to show winds peaking in the 60 to 65 mph range, which is
likely causing some blowing snow and reduced visibility issues.
Here too, winds should slowly decrease through the afternoon,
before diminishing more quickly this evening as the front
approaches.

For the remainder of Southcentral, winds have occasionally been
gusting above 20 mph near Palmer, as the tight pressure gradient
induced by the approaching front and cold air continuing to funnel
through the passes from the Copper Basin interact to allow for a
Venturi Effect (the increase in wind speeds due to the air
being forced through a more narrow outlet) to keep
this persisting from time to time for the next few hours.

Snowfall from the approaching system should encompass all of
Prince William Sound, the eastern 2/3rds of the Kenai Peninsula,
and at least eastern portions of the Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska
Valley. The snowfall and winds will continue to diminish on
Wednesday, as the low moves into the central Gulf and weakens,
with surface convergence also diminishing as frontolysis (the
dissolving of a front) ensues, with orographic lift/onshore flow
continuing to help give localized boosts to the precipitation
along the coast and the southern and eastern slopes of the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the pattern features a
1040 mb surface high over the interior with a mature low of
971 mb south of the Alaska Peninsula. The enhanced pressure gradient
will result in gusty winds over Bristol Bay and portions of
Southwest Alaska. The models do wrap some moisture into the AKPEN
with this system but most of the region will remain dry this
forecast period. Temperatures will continue to run slightly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A storm force low moves south of the eastern Aleutians and Kodiak
this morning. There is a second mature low south of Attu Island
with a frontal boundary bisecting the Bering and the Aleutian
chain. This front will bring a second wave of unsettled weather to
the region. However, as time elapses the models show the low
decaying and slowly pushing eastward this forecast period. Broad
cyclonic flow will continue to impact the chain with intermittent
precipitation.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Thu through Sat)...
Winds look to remain below gale force from Thursday through Friday
morning. Later Friday a strong system will move into the western
and central Aleutians, and into the Bering Friday night and
Saturday. This system will bring gale to possibly storm force
winds across the western and central Aleutians and most of the
Bering Sea. On Friday night there is also a chance of some
westerly gales through the Barren Islands area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Fri through Mon)...
On Friday morning the pattern will consist of an eastward moving
trough over western Alaska, an east to west oriented ridge across
the central Bering, and a deep trough southwest of the western
Aleutians. On Friday the western Alaska trough slide east across
the area and weaken. A deep upper low in the western trough will
move northeast into the western Aleutians Friday night then into
the Bering on Saturday. This will turn the flow aloft to southwest
over the eastern Bering through southern Alaska, with a fairly
consolidated jet pushing northward. This will result in a fairly
active pattern Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 131 171.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 132 136 138 150
         Gale Warning 119 120 127 128 137 139 155 160 165 351 352
                      411 412
         Heavy Freezing Spray 139 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LTB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1136 AM AKST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             1 ESE KODIAK            57.79N 152.39W
02/25/2020  E5.0 INCH        KODIAK ISLAND      AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            SPOTTER REPORTED 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL
            AS SNOW BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1137 AM AKST TUE FEB 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             2 SE KODIAK STATION     57.74N 152.50W
02/25/2020  E3.5 INCH        KODIAK ISLAND      AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            SPOTTER REPORTED 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
            WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

MV