Gale Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

775 
FZAK51 PAFC 081204
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090115-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front sweeps across the north Gulf Coast through this afternoon.
A second front enters the western Gulf and moves to the central 
Gulf and north Gulf coast by Sun afternoon. High pressure extends 
across the northern Gulf for Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-090115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE 35 kt becoming SW by late morning. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090115-
Resurrection Bay-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090115-
Prince William Sound-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090115-
Port Valdez-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090115-
Valdez Narrows-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and widespread snow
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090115-
Valdez Arm-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090115-
Passage Canal-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090115-
Barren Islands East-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090115-
Chiniak Bay-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090115-
Marmot Bay-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090115-
Shelikof Strait-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in
ice free waters 11 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...N wind 10 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-090115-
Kachemak Bay-
304 AM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

123 
FZAK51 PAFC 090023
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091345-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front pushes across the North Gulf Coast and Gulf through Sun
morning. A second front enters the Southern Gulf Sun morning and
moves to the North Gulf Coast by Mon afternoon. A 1002 mb North
Pacific low drives to 115 nm West of Yakutat for Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-091345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091345-
Resurrection Bay-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Snow
and rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Higher
seas S of Caines Head during the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 
ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091345-
Prince William Sound-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091345-
Port Valdez-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091345-
Valdez Narrows-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091345-
Valdez Arm-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091345-
Passage Canal-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091345-
Barren Islands East-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091345-
Chiniak Bay-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091345-
Marmot Bay-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091345-
Shelikof Strait-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 9 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-091345-
Kachemak Bay-
323 PM AKST Sat Feb 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is an upper-level low situated over Bristol Bay this
morning. At the surface, a low near Port Heiden is swinging an
occluded front over the AKPEN and across the Barren Islands. Areas
of light snow have developed along the front as it lifts north
toward Cook Inlet. Ahead of this front, an upper-level shortwave
is kicking off widespread snow showers across Prince William
Sound. A secondary surface low near Dillingham is interacting with a
stalled arctic front draped across the Kuskokwim Delta. An area of
diffluent flow resulting from this interaction is providing enough
lift for widespread light snow across Southwest Alaska. This frontal
boundary marks the delineation between a warmer, southwesterly flow
across Bristol Bay where temperatures this morning range from the
mid 20s to lower 30s and an arctic airmass and gusty northeasterly
winds lowering temperatures well below 0F across the Kuskokwim
Delta.

Over the Bering, an upper-level shortwave is producing some snow
showers across the Pribilofs and is also enhancing the gusty
northeasterly winds. A 1000 mb low over the AKPEN is pushing a
trough and some scattered showers toward Kodiak Island this
morning. A storm-force 964 mb low is spinning southwest of Attu.
This system is draping a front across the western Aleutians with
a triple-point low developing south of Atka. This low has
deepened quite a bit overnight as it lifts north toward the
central and eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance continues to remain in decent agreement on the synoptic
pattern into the weekend. The biggest difference continues to be
with the evolution of the hurricane-force low crossing the eastern
Aleutians late Friday then weakening as it moves over the Y-K
Delta by late Saturday. The Canadian GEM remains the slowest
solution by 6 hours or more while the EC is still the fastest. The
recent 06z GFS run has come more in line with the 00z and 06z NAM,
thus a blend of the two was used for the morning forecast package.
The biggest challenge with this system is precipitation type
across the northern coast of Bristol Bay and strength of the winds
from the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain to Southwest Alaska.
But given the minimal impacts any model discrepancies have on the
sensible weather, average forecast confidence remains.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through late
morning before a frontal system brings snow and lower ceilings
over the airport complex around 21z. MVFR conditions are expected
through this afternoon with the potential for IFR conditions in
steadier snow. Light southerly winds will develop with VFR
conditions returning later this afternoon as the front departs
and the snow tapers off. LLWS is then expected to develop after
midnight as a low-level jet and Turnagain Arm wind develop ahead
of the next frontal system. Gusty southerly winds are then
expected to move over the terminal by early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An occluded front spotted on radar this morning crossing over the
Kenai Peninsula will continue its track eastward throughout the day.
As an upper level trough moves over southcentral this afternoon, the
Anchorage bowl and MAT-SU Valleys will see a short period of snow
with southwesterly flow at all levels, which could produce an inch
or two of new snow. The snow showers will taper off for these areas
overnight with brief upper level ridging building in.

Southcentral will see a more active weather pattern on Saturday as
a warm front moves into the region from the southwest. Moist
overrunning from this front will bring abundant snowfall starting
Saturday morning into late Saturday night, which will produce
6-12 inches of snow for the Susitna Valley. Therefore, a winter
weather advisory has been issued for this area. Kodiak will stay in
the rain as the front moves over them, while temperatures are
slightly above freezing for the Kenai Peninsula and Mat- Valley
could see a mix of rain and snow.

In addition, expect stronger winds and a slight warm up in
temperatures. The low over southwest Alaska will help keep an east-
to-west pressure gradient set up early Saturday morning into the
afternoon hours. This will lead to a period of higher winds through
Turnagain Arm, with winds peaking near 65 mph. As the front moves
north gusty southerly winds will spread across the Anchorage bowl in
the afternoon. Temperatures in town will rise during these stronger
chinook winds, causing high temperatures near 40 degrees. Winds
across the Copper River Basin will also be stronger starting
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A challenging forecast is expected through Saturday as a storm
system deepens on a northward track tonight. The impacts for the
next two days include cold wind chills across the Kuskokwim Delta
and snow and blowing snow across the southwest mainland.

Wind chills across the Kuskokwim Delta coast are expected to
continue through late tonight as gusty northerly flow persists.
Temperatures are expected to moderate warmer late tonight which
should improve wind chills. The front associated to the much
anticipated storm approaches Bristol Bay late this afternoon as the
surface low crosses over the central Aleutians at 964 mb. The front
is expected to spread snow quickly across Bristol Bay to the
Kuskokwim Delta overnight as a southerly low level jet elongates
northward from the Alaska Peninsula. Winter weather advisories are
now out for all of the Southwest locations as widespread snow along
with gusty winds reducing visibilities impact most of the region
tonight through Saturday.

Warm air intrusion is expected to change snow over to rain across
eastern areas of Bristol Bay, east of King Salmon during this
event. However, there is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly the
atmosphere will warm near King Salmon to Dillingham and north to
Koliganek. These locations are expected to at least briefly mix
with rain during the early morning hours on Saturday. The 850 mb
temperatures begins to cool through the column again Saturday
afternoon with cold air advection changing precipitation back over
to all snow Saturday night. Saturday night looks like the peak time
frame for snow amounts as the storm system lifts north toward the
interior and weakens. Products may need to be extended into Sunday
if this storm moves slower than current forecast trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A powerful storm system currently developing south of the Central
Aleutians will bring strong gusty winds, rain and snow across the
Bering through Saturday. Gusty easterly flow will increase across
the Bering through this afternoon as the associated surface low
deepens on a northward track. Rain and snow will spread across the
Aleutian chain and Alaska Peninsula this morning changing over to
all rain by this afternoon for most of these locations. Kiska west
should stay cold enough to support snow. Pre-frontal snow
development is possible across the Pribilof Islands this afternoon
with diminishing weather expected this evening as blowing snow
brings blizzard conditions through tonight. High wind warnings were
issued with the morning package as models are in good agreement on a
large swath of winds developing late tonight. There is high
uncertainty on how quick the low progresses to the northeast, so
timing will likely need to be adjusted.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

A gale force storm will move through the central and western
Aleutians into the western Bering from late Sunday into Tuesday.
Storm force winds are possible along the frontal boundaries. There
is still considerable uncertainty for the timing and strength of
this system.

For the Gulf, gale force winds over the northwest Gulf and
Shelikof Strait Sunday morning will quickly diminish during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday through Thursday)...

We start the long term period Sunday with a weakening low near
the Seward Peninsula, high pressure south of the Gulf of Alaska
and another storm on tap moving toward the Aleutians and Bering
Sea. Models are in generally good agreement with the location of
the low moving into the Aleutians Sunday. However, they differ
significantly with the intensity of this storm. The models have
similar solutions with the timing of the progression of the front
from this storm across the Aleutians and Bering Sea through Monday
but continue to diverge significantly with the storm center
through Wednesday, thus leading to little confidence in the
current model solutions. The approach is to use an ensemble and
blended approach beyond Monday.

This pattern and scenario support the Arctic air pushing back
across the southern mainland Monday and persisting through
Thursday, thus returning the mainland to the colder air, similar
to the past few weeks. However, here the models differ
significantly, and temperature forecasts Tuesday through Thursday
differ by nearly 20 degrees, again leading to very low confidence
in any one solution and low confidence in the extended forecast
period. The Bering Sea and Aleutians will be in the highly active
weather pattern, with frequent periods of strong winds and
precipitation through the extended period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155.
 	     Winter Weather Advisory 145 152 155 161.
 	     Blizzard Warning 195.
	     High Wind Warning 181 185.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 172 174.
         Storm Warning 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 412 413 414.
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 132 138 139 140
         150 173 173 175 176 177 178 181 185.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 179 185 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH/BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL/SA