Gale Warning 147, NWS Anchorage, AK

349 
FZAK52 PAFC 031945 RRA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040145-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

There is a low 960 mb 120 nm southwest of Adak Mon morning. This 
low moves to 100 nm north of Dutch Harbor Tue afternoon at 975 mb.  
Its front moves over the Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska 
through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040145-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt.
.THU...E wind 15 kt.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-040145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040145-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040145-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040145-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.  Snow
showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-040145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...N wind 30 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-040145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.

$$

337 
FZAK52 PAFC 040057
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041415-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb low 40 nm Southwest of Atka moves to 60 nm North of 
Kipnuk at 986 mb by Wed afternoon. A 972 mb low 220 nm Southwest of 
St Matthew Island slips to 220 nm N of Amchitka at 983 mb for Wed 
afternoon. A 983 mb North Pacific low and its front drives to 45 nm 
N of Atka at 982 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041415-
Bristol Bay-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041415-
Unalaska Bay-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041415-
Adak to Kiska-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041415-
Kiska to Attu-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-041415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.  Snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Snow showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-041415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper-level ridging currently over the eastern Gulf into Yukon
Territory is moving eastward ahead of a front over Kodiak Island
through southwest Alaska. A deep low currently centered 250 nm
southeast of Shemya has an occluded front moving northwestward
across the Bering. A trough axis associated with this low extends
southwestward into the north Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
extends northwestward from the aforementioned low into Russia.
The polar jet remains south of 50N through 155W and then extends
northeastward into the central Gulf of Alaska; the jet then
sharply dips southeastward into central California. The
subtropical jet remains south of 30N throughout the north Pacific.

At the surface, radar imagery shows snow bands moving
northeastward through the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
Observations show Gale force southeasterly winds from the north
shore of the Alaska Peninsula through Nunivak Island. ASCAT data
shows storm force winds on the western side of the low where steep
pressure gradients are present.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
across the area through mid-week. However, there are significant
mesoscale differences by Monday. The high resolution NAMNest was
favored in this forecast package with respect to the gap winds
across the Aleutians as this model has best handled the real-time
observations across the area. The NAMNest was also the preferred
model with respect to the barrier jet along the Gulf coast,
though hand edits were made to increase the wind speeds in this region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light surface winds will continue
through the TAF period. A few flurries are possible this
afternoon as an upper level front pushes through Anchorage that
could drop ceilings briefly below 5000'. Due to a strong
southeasterly barrier jet and northerly surface winds, low level
wind shear is likely into Monday morning. Pireps have already
indicated some moderate turbulence between 1,000-2,000' this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front moving across Southcentral is currently bringing snow and
blowing snow to the eastern Kenai Peninsula. While the heaviest
snow and strongest winds are expected to remain east of the Seward
Highway, periods of reduced visibility are still likely.
Persistent low visibility remains forecasted for Portage Valley as
snow rates will be heaviest there. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect through early Monday morning. Snow totals in
Whittier will likely exceed a foot. The Susitna Valley will also
see accumulating snow through Monday morning, although highest
totals will remain west of the Parks Highway. That said, wind
gusts up to 15 mph are possible between Talkeetna and Cantwell and
brief periods of reduced visibility are possible along that
stretch of road, particularly this evening.

As the front approaches the Gulf coast tonight, gusty
southeasterly winds will develop along Turnagain Arm, peaking near
60 mph around midnight. Snow will also subsequently develop in
the Cordova/Valdez areas, however, it will remain light. Easterly
storm force winds remain likely offshore south of Hinchinbrook
Entrance.

A low will track into the Gulf from the southwest Monday into
Tuesday. There remains uncertainty with regards to the exact
track, although it is likely to bring light accumulating snow to
much of Southcentral, to include the Anchorage Bowl Tue morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Wednesday):

A trio of fronts associated with a strong low over the Bering
will be affecting the area from tonight through the day on Monday.
The first front is affecting the area presently. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay. Once the front passes, the precipitation rates should
diminish and allow temperatures to rise just above freezing for
most coastal locations. As the front dissipates over the area
tonight, scattered snow showers are expected.

The second front moves into Southwest Alaska during the day on
Monday. Since this second front won't be nearly as strong, winds
should not be as much of an issue. Widespread light snow amounting
to 1 to 3 inches for most areas are expected. Cloudy skies with
relatively warm temperatures in the 20s and 30s are expected
behind it.

The third front moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing
yet another round of light snow to most areas of Southwest Alaska.
With each front, coastal locations and the windier gap areas could
warm above freezing, bringing the possibility of rain or a
rain/snow mix to those areas. A strong, but slow-moving cold
front will approach Hooper Bay and the northern-most areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta late on Wednesday. There remains some model
disagreement on how far south it will dip in the days ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A strong, but slowly weakening low approaching the central
Aleutians is the parent system of a series of fronts that extend
east and northeast from the low. The occluded front extends
northeast from the low center, and is moving into Southwest
Alaska. Widespread gales are ongoing in the waters around Saint
Matthew Island, extending southward to the western Aleutians. A
second front is forming behind it and is moving towards the
Pribilofs and the eastern Aleutians. Both fronts are moving
northeastward. Unsettled weather and plentiful cloud cover extend
over much of the Bering, and will persist over the next three
days. The low center is expected to track east of Atka Monday
evening, then move over the Pribilofs Tuesday afternoon. It will
then elongate as a secondary North Pacific low moves over the
central Aleutians as some of the energy moves into Southwest
Alaska. The low over the central Aleutians will become the main
low Wednesday afternoon and evening, but small spin-up lows are
possible all along a sharp front that will be nearly stationary
over the northern Bering. This front will eventually become a cold
front and begin moving southward late on Wednesday, though how far
it gets remains uncertain. What can be said for certain is that
the cold air will remain bottled up over the northern and western
Bering through Wednesday, so the Aleutians through the Pribilofs
will have an extended period of time of temperatures above
freezing in the 30s with some 40s as well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

Sustained gales are anticipated on Wednesday for the northern
Bering Sea, as the region will get sandwiched between an area of
high pressure over eastern Siberia and an area of low pressure,
with an attendant warm front, moving into the southern Bering.
Here, seas will peak near 20 feet. Lighter winds will prevail
elsewhere for Wednesday. All locations will remain below gales for
Thursday.

On Friday a stronger area of low pressure and warm front will
make its way into the southern Bering. With the Siberian high
remaining in place, sustained gales will spread from the western
portions of the sea towards the Pribilof Islands by Friday
evening. Given a longer fetch length than its predecessor, seas
will increase to near 20 feet from Dutch Harbor westward towards
Shemya south of the chain, with similar heights spreading from the
western Bering towards the Pribilof Islands.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Mainly quiet conditions are expected for the area, with winds
briefly reaching 20 to 30 knots for coastal locations near Kodiak
Island in the Wednesday evening through Thursday morning time
frame. Otherwise, look for seas to average in the 8 to 12 feet
range near the Gulf Coast, with slightly higher seas expected
offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through
Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will be present for the duration of the
long term. Quick moving flow will cause a series of upper level
ridges and troughs to work their way across the Bering Sea and
across Southcentral AK. The long term starts with low pressure in
the Bering, creating stormy conditions there. Southwest flow
riding over the top of a ridge in the North Pacific can be
expected to create active weather (at least a chance of snow) and
warming conditions for Southcentral AK. From there, the long term
plays out with these systems working their way east.

Unfortunately, there is little model agreement on the timing and
placement of the individual weather features within this active
weather pattern. Therefore, all we can really say at this point
is to expect a series of storms to work their way across the
Bering and the Gulf of Alaska, with breaks in the weather in
between. One thing we can say is the pattern looks warm, so we can
expect the colder temperatures we have been seeing to slowly trend
warmer, especially for coastal areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories 155 161 125.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings 185.
		 Storm Warnings 119.
		 Gale Warnings 351 352 120 130 131 139 411 412 165 177
				       178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD/BB