Storm Warning 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

577 
FZAK51 PAFC 031944 RRA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-040145-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front enters the southern Gulf this morning and pushes to the
northern coast this afternoon. This front remains nearly stationary 
through Tue afternoon then weakens as it moves inland. An associated 
low develops just northeast of Kodiak City at 984 mb later this 
afternoon then tracks to Cordova by early Tue afternoon and 
dissipates as it moves inland. The next front moves to the southern 
Gulf Tue afternoon moving to the northern Gulf by early Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ119-040145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-040145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-040145-
Resurrection Bay-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-040145-
Prince William Sound-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft toward morning. Rain and snow.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-040145-
Port Valdez-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-040145-
Valdez Narrows-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow becoming rain 
showers in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-040145-
Valdez Arm-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-040145-
Passage Canal-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-040145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-040145-
Barren Islands East-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt, except NE wind 50 kt near the Barren Islands.
Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Near the Barren Islands, NE wind 35 kt
becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-040145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-040145-
Chiniak Bay-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-040145-
Marmot Bay-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-040145-
Shelikof Strait-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-040145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-040145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...N wind 10 kt.
.THU...S wind 10 kt.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-040145-
Kachemak Bay-
337 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt...strongest along the outer bay. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

563 
FZAK51 PAFC 040050
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041345-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 mb low 185 nm Southwest of Middleton Island moves to 15 nm 
Southwest of Cordova at 990 mb then inland Midday Tue. Its front 
pushes across the North Gulf Coast through Tue morning. A 987 mb 
low 280 nm South of Chignik Tue morning moves over Naked Island in
Prince William Sound at 993 mb for Wed afternoon. Its front 
moves over the North Gulf Coast by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-041345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt E of Middleton Island after
midnight. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041345-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041345-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041345-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041345-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041345-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041345-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041345-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041345-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041345-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041345-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
in ice free waters 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Snow.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-041345-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper-level ridging currently over the eastern Gulf into Yukon
Territory is moving eastward ahead of a front over Kodiak Island
through southwest Alaska. A deep low currently centered 250 nm
southeast of Shemya has an occluded front moving northwestward
across the Bering. A trough axis associated with this low extends
southwestward into the north Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
extends northwestward from the aforementioned low into Russia.
The polar jet remains south of 50N through 155W and then extends
northeastward into the central Gulf of Alaska; the jet then
sharply dips southeastward into central California. The
subtropical jet remains south of 30N throughout the north Pacific.

At the surface, radar imagery shows snow bands moving
northeastward through the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay.
Observations show Gale force southeasterly winds from the north
shore of the Alaska Peninsula through Nunivak Island. ASCAT data
shows storm force winds on the western side of the low where steep
pressure gradients are present.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
across the area through mid-week. However, there are significant
mesoscale differences by Monday. The high resolution NAMNest was
favored in this forecast package with respect to the gap winds
across the Aleutians as this model has best handled the real-time
observations across the area. The NAMNest was also the preferred
model with respect to the barrier jet along the Gulf coast,
though hand edits were made to increase the wind speeds in this region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light surface winds will continue
through the TAF period. A few flurries are possible this
afternoon as an upper level front pushes through Anchorage that
could drop ceilings briefly below 5000'. Due to a strong
southeasterly barrier jet and northerly surface winds, low level
wind shear is likely into Monday morning. Pireps have already
indicated some moderate turbulence between 1,000-2,000' this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front moving across Southcentral is currently bringing snow and
blowing snow to the eastern Kenai Peninsula. While the heaviest
snow and strongest winds are expected to remain east of the Seward
Highway, periods of reduced visibility are still likely.
Persistent low visibility remains forecasted for Portage Valley as
snow rates will be heaviest there. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect through early Monday morning. Snow totals in
Whittier will likely exceed a foot. The Susitna Valley will also
see accumulating snow through Monday morning, although highest
totals will remain west of the Parks Highway. That said, wind
gusts up to 15 mph are possible between Talkeetna and Cantwell and
brief periods of reduced visibility are possible along that
stretch of road, particularly this evening.

As the front approaches the Gulf coast tonight, gusty
southeasterly winds will develop along Turnagain Arm, peaking near
60 mph around midnight. Snow will also subsequently develop in
the Cordova/Valdez areas, however, it will remain light. Easterly
storm force winds remain likely offshore south of Hinchinbrook
Entrance.

A low will track into the Gulf from the southwest Monday into
Tuesday. There remains uncertainty with regards to the exact
track, although it is likely to bring light accumulating snow to
much of Southcentral, to include the Anchorage Bowl Tue morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Wednesday):

A trio of fronts associated with a strong low over the Bering
will be affecting the area from tonight through the day on Monday.
The first front is affecting the area presently. Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay. Once the front passes, the precipitation rates should
diminish and allow temperatures to rise just above freezing for
most coastal locations. As the front dissipates over the area
tonight, scattered snow showers are expected.

The second front moves into Southwest Alaska during the day on
Monday. Since this second front won't be nearly as strong, winds
should not be as much of an issue. Widespread light snow amounting
to 1 to 3 inches for most areas are expected. Cloudy skies with
relatively warm temperatures in the 20s and 30s are expected
behind it.

The third front moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing
yet another round of light snow to most areas of Southwest Alaska.
With each front, coastal locations and the windier gap areas could
warm above freezing, bringing the possibility of rain or a
rain/snow mix to those areas. A strong, but slow-moving cold
front will approach Hooper Bay and the northern-most areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta late on Wednesday. There remains some model
disagreement on how far south it will dip in the days ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A strong, but slowly weakening low approaching the central
Aleutians is the parent system of a series of fronts that extend
east and northeast from the low. The occluded front extends
northeast from the low center, and is moving into Southwest
Alaska. Widespread gales are ongoing in the waters around Saint
Matthew Island, extending southward to the western Aleutians. A
second front is forming behind it and is moving towards the
Pribilofs and the eastern Aleutians. Both fronts are moving
northeastward. Unsettled weather and plentiful cloud cover extend
over much of the Bering, and will persist over the next three
days. The low center is expected to track east of Atka Monday
evening, then move over the Pribilofs Tuesday afternoon. It will
then elongate as a secondary North Pacific low moves over the
central Aleutians as some of the energy moves into Southwest
Alaska. The low over the central Aleutians will become the main
low Wednesday afternoon and evening, but small spin-up lows are
possible all along a sharp front that will be nearly stationary
over the northern Bering. This front will eventually become a cold
front and begin moving southward late on Wednesday, though how far
it gets remains uncertain. What can be said for certain is that
the cold air will remain bottled up over the northern and western
Bering through Wednesday, so the Aleutians through the Pribilofs
will have an extended period of time of temperatures above
freezing in the 30s with some 40s as well.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

Sustained gales are anticipated on Wednesday for the northern
Bering Sea, as the region will get sandwiched between an area of
high pressure over eastern Siberia and an area of low pressure,
with an attendant warm front, moving into the southern Bering.
Here, seas will peak near 20 feet. Lighter winds will prevail
elsewhere for Wednesday. All locations will remain below gales for
Thursday.

On Friday a stronger area of low pressure and warm front will
make its way into the southern Bering. With the Siberian high
remaining in place, sustained gales will spread from the western
portions of the sea towards the Pribilof Islands by Friday
evening. Given a longer fetch length than its predecessor, seas
will increase to near 20 feet from Dutch Harbor westward towards
Shemya south of the chain, with similar heights spreading from the
western Bering towards the Pribilof Islands.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Mainly quiet conditions are expected for the area, with winds
briefly reaching 20 to 30 knots for coastal locations near Kodiak
Island in the Wednesday evening through Thursday morning time
frame. Otherwise, look for seas to average in the 8 to 12 feet
range near the Gulf Coast, with slightly higher seas expected
offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through
Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will be present for the duration of the
long term. Quick moving flow will cause a series of upper level
ridges and troughs to work their way across the Bering Sea and
across Southcentral AK. The long term starts with low pressure in
the Bering, creating stormy conditions there. Southwest flow
riding over the top of a ridge in the North Pacific can be
expected to create active weather (at least a chance of snow) and
warming conditions for Southcentral AK. From there, the long term
plays out with these systems working their way east.

Unfortunately, there is little model agreement on the timing and
placement of the individual weather features within this active
weather pattern. Therefore, all we can really say at this point
is to expect a series of storms to work their way across the
Bering and the Gulf of Alaska, with breaks in the weather in
between. One thing we can say is the pattern looks warm, so we can
expect the colder temperatures we have been seeing to slowly trend
warmer, especially for coastal areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories 155 161 125.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings 185.
		 Storm Warnings 119.
		 Gale Warnings 351 352 120 130 131 139 411 412 165 177
				       178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL/ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD/BB