Gale Warning 144, NWS Anchorage, AK

828 
FZAK51 PAFC 030100
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031330-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front pushes across the Gulf through Tue morning. A 987 mb low
forms on the front 110 nm South of Chignik Mon morning and moves 
to 35 nm South of Cordova at 992 mb and dissipates inland Tue 
afternoon. A 987 mb low 305 nm South of Chignik Tue morning moves
to 40 nm Southwest of Sitkinak at 983 mb Tue afternoon. Its front
tracks into the Gulf for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-031330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft 
building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain and snow
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight near
the coast. Becoming SE 25 kt away from the coast. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031330-
Resurrection Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Caines Head in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
Snow.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031330-
Prince William Sound-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031330-
Port Valdez-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031330-
Valdez Narrows-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031330-
Valdez Arm-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031330-
Passage Canal-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray and areas of
blowing snow. Snow.
.MON...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray and areas of blowing snow. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031330-
Barren Islands East-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N of Dangerous Cape...E wind 20 kt becoming SW in the 
afternoon. S of Dangerous Cape...E wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031330-
Chiniak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031330-
Marmot Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031330-
Shelikof Strait-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
in ice free waters 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.MON...N wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...N wind 10 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-031330-
Kachemak Bay-
400 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overall synoptic pattern across the area is changing as an
upper-level ridge is moving east over mainland Alaska from the
Bering. This upper-ridge currently extends northwest from the
Alaska Peninsula to the Seward Peninsula. The upper-trough is now
centered over the Yukon Territory with a closed low center over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The trough-axis associated with this
upper-trough extends southwest from the eastern Gulf into the
north Pacific. A second low 240 NM south of Shemya has an
occluded front moving northeast across the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

At the surface, radar imagery shows snow showers moving
northeast across the Kuskokwim Delta. Radar also shows second
area of snow showers moving southeast from Middleton Island to
over the northern Gulf. Observations show strong gap winds across
the Aleutians due to the southeasterly winds ahead of the
aforementioned frontal boundary funneling through the straits.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement over the next three days with
respect to the overall synoptic pattern. The higher resolution
data from the NAMNest was favored for the strong gap winds in the
Aleutians as this model has resolved the situation the best when
comparing to real-time observations. There is some indication
(ASCAT passes, ship obs, etc) the front is slightly stronger than
models indicated. Overall confidence in the short term forecast
remains high due to a high degree of consistency between guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northeasterly flow will persist.
There is a possibility we may see some patchy fog overnight and in
the morning as skies clear and winds calm. Winds aloft will
increase Sunday afternoon as a low- level jet develops over the
area due to an occluded front moving into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Strengthening high pressure over the interior is currently
bringing gusty winds to Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal and
Thompson Pass. These will diminish overnight as the high departs
to the east and an upper ridge builds over Southcentral. Skies
will clear overnight and patchy fog is possible with the lighter
winds.

A front will quickly move over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning
with snow and blowing snow likely before changing to light rain
thereafter. Approximately 6 inches of accumulation are expected in
Kodiak City before the changeover. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued to address this concern. The front will track over
the remainder of Southcentral by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest
snowfall is expected over the southern/eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Periods of significantly reduced visibility associated with
blowing snow are likely in the Portage Valley by evening,
persisting into Monday morning. It is still difficult to determine
if Anchorage will see any snow or remain downsloped for the
duration of the frontal passage. In any case, any snow would be
light with little/no accumulation, although the front will bring
gusty southeasterly winds up to 55 mph along Turnagain Arm. The
front will then stall along the northern Gulf coast Monday into
Tuesday, bringing additional snow to that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A major pattern change is on its way to Southwest Alaska. A
strong front associated with a strong low is moving across the
Bering currently and will begin impacting Southwest Alaska tonight
as it moves into the coast. The front will bring much warmer air
into Southwest Alaska. Before that happens though, some areas are
expected to pick up some healthy amounts of new snow, along with
gusty winds. This combination will cause significant visibility
reductions to one half mile or less in blowing snow in most areas
north and west of King Salmon and along the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta. Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 4 to 6 inch
range from Bethel west and 6 to 10 inches north and west of King
Salmon. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected Sunday morning.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
along the coast and for Bristol Bay north and west of King
Salmon.

As the front moves inland and dissipates Sunday night, gap winds
through the Kamishak Gap will remain elevated through Iliamna and
Igiugig. The primary change most people will notice are the
rapidly rising temperatures. The temperatures will climb into the
30s for downslope areas as soon as Sunday, with more widespread
30s expected on Monday. The weather will remain unsettled Monday
and Tuesday for most areas, as shower activity from off the Bering
is expected to continue due to the parent low stalling. This will
keep chances of snow in the forecast, with perhaps some rain
mixing in at times along the coast and the warmer areas, along
with above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A very strong 946 mb low currently located south of Shemya and its
associated fronts and disturbances will be the only weather
feature impacting the Bering through Tuesday. That said, its
strength will mean there will be plenty of impacts to all areas
through then. The low itself is near peak intensity currently, and
slow weakening is expected through Tuesday. The low is not
expected to move much from its present location through Sunday
afternoon, after which the center will track eastward along and
just south of the Chain through Monday afternoon, before turning
north with its center near the Pribilofs on Tuesday afternoon. A
strong front moving out ahead of it is the leading edge of a much
warmer air mass. Thus, precipitation has already changed over to
rain in Dutch Harbor and points west, while a very wet snow is
falling with temperatures in the mid 30s from Cold Bay and Sand
Point up through the Pribilofs. This warm air will continue
spreading north and east, reaching the coast of Southwest Alaska
tonight. As the low slowly spins along the aforementioned track,
rain or a rain/snow mix along the coast will remain in the
forecast through Tuesday, as the weather remains unsettled.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A weakening low will lift north from the
central Aleutians into the Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday,
leading broad cyclonic flow over the Bering with widespread areas
of small craft advisory level winds and possible embedded gales
through Wednesday. A strong low will approach from the western
Pacific Thursday, likely bringing gales and perhaps storm force
winds to the western Aleutians.

Gulf of Alaska: Swell-driven small craft advisory level seas will
continue, with no significant systems expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Unsettled weather and a cooling trend will be on tap Wednesday
into Thursday over the Southern Mainland as an upper low in the
Bering steers a cold front from west to east across the area.
Model uncertainty increases substantially Friday, given
disagreement over whether an Arctic trough dives down into
mainland Alaska, or dips farther west into Siberia, keeping all of
mainland Alaska in a south flow regime. This feature, and the
coincident strength of a North Pacific low Friday will determine
whether a warm, wet pattern comes into play Friday vs a very cold,
less wet pattern. In any case, most solutions converge and show
the cold air eroding Saturday 8 FEB. Meanwhile, wet unsettled weather
will continue over the Aleutians and Pribilofs in this progressive
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories 155 161 125 171.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 126 127 129 130 131
		 132 136 138 139 160 185.
		 Storm Warning 130 178 411 412.
	     Gale Warning 120 121 125 129 131 132 136 138 139 351 352
					   150 155 160 165-174 179 180 185 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM