Gale Warning 143, NWS Anchorage, AK

744 
FZAK52 PAFC 030053
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031400-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 951 mb low 175 nm south of Kiska moves to 25 nm south of St 
George Island at 975 mb Tue afternoon. Its front moves over the 
Aleutians and Bering into Western Alaska through Tue afternoon. A 
972 mb low forms 200 nm west of St Paul Island Mon morning and 
moves to 380 nm west of St Paul Island at 977 mb by Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031400-
Bristol Bay-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-031400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt, except 40 kt out of bays and passes before
midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031400-
Unalaska Bay-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 14
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031400-
Adak to Kiska-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031400-
Kiska to Attu-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft. Snow.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-031400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.WED...N wind 30 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-031400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 PM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 22 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overall synoptic pattern across the area is changing as an
upper-level ridge is moving east over mainland Alaska from the
Bering. This upper-ridge currently extends northwest from the
Alaska Peninsula to the Seward Peninsula. The upper-trough is now
centered over the Yukon Territory with a closed low center over
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The trough-axis associated with this
upper-trough extends southwest from the eastern Gulf into the
north Pacific. A second low 240 NM south of Shemya has an
occluded front moving northeast across the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

At the surface, radar imagery shows snow showers moving
northeast across the Kuskokwim Delta. Radar also shows second
area of snow showers moving southeast from Middleton Island to
over the northern Gulf. Observations show strong gap winds across
the Aleutians due to the southeasterly winds ahead of the
aforementioned frontal boundary funneling through the straits.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement over the next three days with
respect to the overall synoptic pattern. The higher resolution
data from the NAMNest was favored for the strong gap winds in the
Aleutians as this model has resolved the situation the best when
comparing to real-time observations. There is some indication
(ASCAT passes, ship obs, etc) the front is slightly stronger than
models indicated. Overall confidence in the short term forecast
remains high due to a high degree of consistency between guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northeasterly flow will persist.
There is a possibility we may see some patchy fog overnight and in
the morning as skies clear and winds calm. Winds aloft will
increase Sunday afternoon as a low- level jet develops over the
area due to an occluded front moving into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Strengthening high pressure over the interior is currently
bringing gusty winds to Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal and
Thompson Pass. These will diminish overnight as the high departs
to the east and an upper ridge builds over Southcentral. Skies
will clear overnight and patchy fog is possible with the lighter
winds.

A front will quickly move over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning
with snow and blowing snow likely before changing to light rain
thereafter. Approximately 6 inches of accumulation are expected in
Kodiak City before the changeover. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued to address this concern. The front will track over
the remainder of Southcentral by Sunday afternoon. The heaviest
snowfall is expected over the southern/eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Periods of significantly reduced visibility associated with
blowing snow are likely in the Portage Valley by evening,
persisting into Monday morning. It is still difficult to determine
if Anchorage will see any snow or remain downsloped for the
duration of the frontal passage. In any case, any snow would be
light with little/no accumulation, although the front will bring
gusty southeasterly winds up to 55 mph along Turnagain Arm. The
front will then stall along the northern Gulf coast Monday into
Tuesday, bringing additional snow to that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A major pattern change is on its way to Southwest Alaska. A
strong front associated with a strong low is moving across the
Bering currently and will begin impacting Southwest Alaska tonight
as it moves into the coast. The front will bring much warmer air
into Southwest Alaska. Before that happens though, some areas are
expected to pick up some healthy amounts of new snow, along with
gusty winds. This combination will cause significant visibility
reductions to one half mile or less in blowing snow in most areas
north and west of King Salmon and along the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta. Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 4 to 6 inch
range from Bethel west and 6 to 10 inches north and west of King
Salmon. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected Sunday morning.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
along the coast and for Bristol Bay north and west of King
Salmon.

As the front moves inland and dissipates Sunday night, gap winds
through the Kamishak Gap will remain elevated through Iliamna and
Igiugig. The primary change most people will notice are the
rapidly rising temperatures. The temperatures will climb into the
30s for downslope areas as soon as Sunday, with more widespread
30s expected on Monday. The weather will remain unsettled Monday
and Tuesday for most areas, as shower activity from off the Bering
is expected to continue due to the parent low stalling. This will
keep chances of snow in the forecast, with perhaps some rain
mixing in at times along the coast and the warmer areas, along
with above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A very strong 946 mb low currently located south of Shemya and its
associated fronts and disturbances will be the only weather
feature impacting the Bering through Tuesday. That said, its
strength will mean there will be plenty of impacts to all areas
through then. The low itself is near peak intensity currently, and
slow weakening is expected through Tuesday. The low is not
expected to move much from its present location through Sunday
afternoon, after which the center will track eastward along and
just south of the Chain through Monday afternoon, before turning
north with its center near the Pribilofs on Tuesday afternoon. A
strong front moving out ahead of it is the leading edge of a much
warmer air mass. Thus, precipitation has already changed over to
rain in Dutch Harbor and points west, while a very wet snow is
falling with temperatures in the mid 30s from Cold Bay and Sand
Point up through the Pribilofs. This warm air will continue
spreading north and east, reaching the coast of Southwest Alaska
tonight. As the low slowly spins along the aforementioned track,
rain or a rain/snow mix along the coast will remain in the
forecast through Tuesday, as the weather remains unsettled.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: A weakening low will lift north from the
central Aleutians into the Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday,
leading broad cyclonic flow over the Bering with widespread areas
of small craft advisory level winds and possible embedded gales
through Wednesday. A strong low will approach from the western
Pacific Thursday, likely bringing gales and perhaps storm force
winds to the western Aleutians.

Gulf of Alaska: Swell-driven small craft advisory level seas will
continue, with no significant systems expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Unsettled weather and a cooling trend will be on tap Wednesday
into Thursday over the Southern Mainland as an upper low in the
Bering steers a cold front from west to east across the area.
Model uncertainty increases substantially Friday, given
disagreement over whether an Arctic trough dives down into
mainland Alaska, or dips farther west into Siberia, keeping all of
mainland Alaska in a south flow regime. This feature, and the
coincident strength of a North Pacific low Friday will determine
whether a warm, wet pattern comes into play Friday vs a very cold,
less wet pattern. In any case, most solutions converge and show
the cold air eroding Saturday 8 FEB. Meanwhile, wet unsettled weather
will continue over the Aleutians and Pribilofs in this progressive
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories 155 161 125 171.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 121 126 127 129 130 131
		 132 136 138 139 160 185.
		 Storm Warning 130 178 411 412.
	     Gale Warning 120 121 125 129 131 132 136 138 139 351 352
					   150 155 160 165-174 179 180 185 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM