Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

773 
FZAK51 PAFC 300227 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301515-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 961 mb low 40 nm southwest of Seward moves inland by Thu morning.
A 980 mb North Pacific low 70 nm southwest of Seward Thu afternoon 
moves to 30 nm northeast of Middleton Island at 984 mb by Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301515-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
30 ft subsiding to 21 ft after midnight. Snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17  ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301515-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301515-
Resurrection Bay-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8  ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301515-
Prince William Sound-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301515-
Port Valdez-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301515-
Valdez Narrows-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301515-
Valdez Arm-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301515-
Passage Canal-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
 Widespread snow showers. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301515-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing
 spray. Snow. 
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301515-
Barren Islands East-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers. 
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301515-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers. 
.THU...W wind 40 kt except NW 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt except NW 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301515-
Chiniak Bay-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301515-
Marmot Bay-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301515-
Shelikof Strait-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. 
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301515-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301515-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.  Snow. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-301515-
Kachemak Bay-
527 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

560 
FZAK51 PAFC 301255
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-310215-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 mb low 75 nm east of Kodiak City moves to 30 nm north of
Middleton Island at 983 mb by Fri morning and then weakens as it 
moves inland Fri afternoon. A new low develops 60 nm southwest of
Middleton Island Fri afternoon and then moves to 175 nm southeast
of Middleton Island at 990 mb early Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-310215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-310215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-310215-
Resurrection Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-310215-
Prince William Sound-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-310215-
Port Valdez-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-310215-
Valdez Narrows-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread 
snow showers.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-310215-
Valdez Arm-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-310215-
Passage Canal-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-310215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-310215-
Barren Islands East-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-310215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-310215-
Chiniak Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-310215-
Marmot Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-310215-
Shelikof Strait-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-310215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W wind 25 kt, except N wind 10 kt N of 
Anchor Point. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray S of Anchor Point.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-310215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-310215-
Kachemak Bay-
355 AM AKST Thu Jan 30 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKST Wed Jan 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 950s mb storm force low was located east of the Barren Islands
this afternoon with a weaker center just to the northeast. The
frontal trough associated with the storm center low was rotating
westward across Southcentral. Rain and snow was falling across the
north Gulf Coast with moderate snowfall over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Strong northeast winds through Thompson Pass caused
widespread low visibilities in blowing snow. Blizzard conditions
with heavy snow and frequent blowing snow ended over Kodiak Island
late this morning as the storm center shifted north. Strong cold
air advection off the Southwest Mainland continued snow and
blowing snow across with strong gap flows over much of the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are generally in good synoptic agreement. The main
focus will be mesoscale adjustments and bumping up winds through
gaps over the western Gulf and AK Pen and winds associated with
the next front moving across the Aleutians and Bering Sea on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A brief period of LLWS is expected early this evening with
light north surface winds and southeast winds aloft. Surface winds
should shift to southeast and become gusty by late evening then
shift back to light north during the overnight hours tonight. VFR
conditions will likely prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low over the northwestern Gulf this afternoon will track
over the Kenai Peninsula and into Cook Inlet through tonight. As
the low moves over Cook Inlet and its front lifts across northern
Prince William Sound, the resultant increase in the pressure
gradient will orient to favor the development of strong
southeasterly gap winds through Turnagain Arm. Thus, a Blizzard
Warning remains in effect until 4 a.m. Thursday morning for
Whittier, Portage Valley, Turnagain Pass and eastern Turnagain
Arm. Expect additional snow amounts of 4 to 10 inches with locally
higher amounts and winds gusting as high as 45 to 60 mph. The
Turnagain Arm wind is expected to make a brief appearance across
the western Anchorage Bowl tonight. Gusty northeasterly winds will
also continue through this evening for portions of the Mat
Valley. For Palmer, however, the northeasterly wind is expected to
transition to a southeasterly Knik River Valley wind this evening
and linger through the overnight hours.

The Blizzard Warning for Kodiak has expired; however, locally
gusty winds and areas of blowing snow will persist over the next
couple of days. For Thompson Pass, snowfall and gusty winds should
also continue although blizzard conditions will wane as these
winds shift to the south and diminish in intensity. As winds and
precipitation make their way onshore, temperatures across the
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys may climb a
couple more degrees this evening. We've seen highs across
Southcentral in the high 20s to low 30s with a high of 40 recorded
in Cordova. This shouldn't last long, however, as the winds taper
off later tonight. Temperatures will begin another cooling trend
as cold air wraps around the backside of the low. For Thursday,
snow showers will linger across the north Gulf coast as the rest
of Southcentral sees calmer winds and drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Arctic high pressure remains in place, maintaining bitter cold
conditions with strong wind chills. A Wind Chill Advisory remains
in effect until Thursday morning for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Greater Bristol Bay areas. The coldest wind chills will continue
to be in the Kuskokwim Delta and Nushagak River valley. Along the
AKPEN and into the Alaska Range/foothills, light snow continues
and will spread north into the lower Kuskokwim Valley and west
into the Aleutian Range/foothills. Warm air advection with this
low will bring a brief reprieve from bitter cold in the Greater
Bristol Bay and middle Kuskokwim Valley areas. Precipitation will
diminish by Friday as a ridge builds over the Bering Sea.
Temperatures will return to the 20 to 30 below range, but surface
winds should be light enough that conditions won't reach wind
chill advisory criteria. Friday night into Saturday, a low
skirting south of the western Aleutians will swing a front
northeastward into the Bering Sea. This will initiate a broad
transition to onshore flow and cloudier, warmer conditions over
the Southwest Mainland. Temperatures may even break into the
positives for parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Upper level Arctic troughing persists over mainland Alaska, while
a ridge is building in over the western Bering Sea. Strong north
flow ahead of the ridge continues to bring enhanced gap winds and
cold air advection snow showers over the eastern Bering/Aleutians.
The trough will shift eastward and instability showers should
mostly diminish by Friday. A low in the northern Bering will steer
a cold front towards the western to central Aleutians,
maintaining widespread snow showers. But, with relatively lighter
winds do not expect significant impacts to visibility. A storm
force low will approach the western Aleutians from the western
Pacific Friday into Saturday. Winds will shift to westerly, then
southerly over the Aleutians. The low will have a moisture fetch
reaching nearly into the Tropics, bringing steady rain to the
Aleutians Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...
Gulf of Alaska: Strong northwesterly flow is expected to continue
for the Western Gulf through Saturday. This will create gale
force winds, especially through gaps and passes. Saturday night
into Sunday, this flow will diminish easing winds and seas. A
shift to southerly flow can be expected Sunday. We have a moderate
amount of confidence in the forecast. We are confident in
northwesterly flow and the pattern shift Sunday, but wind speed
may need to be adjusted a bit. Do expect gales to continue in the
Western Bering Saturday though.

Bering Sea: A low in the Western Aleutians Saturday will bring
strong gales and a few areas of storm forces winds to the area. It
will weaken as it moves east through Monday, allowing winds and
seas to calm to small craft advisory by Monday. There is moderate
confidence in this forecast. High confidence with low pressure in
the Bering, though wind speeds will likely need to be adjusted.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...
The upper level long wave trough currently over Alaska still
looks to shift east on Saturday. This will allow the ridge that is
currently over the Bering Sea and Aleutians to move east over
Southcentral AK. Over the weekend this high pressure will keep
cold air in place over Southcentral AK that will have moved in on
the backside of low pressure currently over Southcentral AK.
Meanwhile out in the Bering, a long wave trough will be digging
south with an anchoring low over the western Aleutians, meaning
unsettled weather in the Bering.

By early next week, movement of this high and continued
development of the long wave trough in the Bering will cause a
significant pattern shift for our forecast area. On Monday, the
axis of the high will move east to be located over Western Canada,
with low pressure over the central Bering. This will create stormy
conditions for the Bering and Southwest Alaska and broad southwest
flow over Southcentral, which should warm temperatures quite a
bit. Models are actually in good agreement for this pattern change
to occur. They have differences of exact location of the high and
low, but all are capturing the same general synoptic flow. This
gives us an above average confidence level in the long term, but
as usual figuring out specific weather systems will have to wait
until the forecast is in the short term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 125.
 Blowing Snow Advisory 181.
 Wind Chill Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130.
 Gale Warning 119 131 132 138 150 155 165 170>172 180.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 130 132 138 150 155 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1131 AM AKST WED JAN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW PALMER            61.62N 149.13W
01/29/2020  M73 MPH          MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&