Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Convection will steadily taper off this evening with stronger to
severe storms lasting longer into the evening over the eastern
plains. MVFR conditions can be expected with any passing storm with
frequent lightning, hail, erratic gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall. KTCC and KCAO are still in line for a TS hit this evening. It
is looking less likely any meaningful east canyon wind will reach
KSAF and KABQ, but can't rule out the direction change out of the
east late this evening. Another round of showers and storms can be
expected to start near mid-day Monday, with stronger storms focusing
over eastern NM. Drier storms across the west will produce gusty
outflow winds and could blow around some dust as well.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
northeast and east central New Mexico during the afternoon and early
evening hours today. The primary hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Meanwhile, near-record to record breaking heat will
continue across northern and central New Mexico through Monday. By
midweek, the high pressure system will center over central Texas,
allowing moisture to wrap around the system into New Mexico. This
will offer some heat relief, as well as an increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Another uptick in shower and storm activity this afternoon, and some
of the storms in northeast and east central New Mexico could become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. HRRR suggests
most of the convection will taper off by late this evening.

There may be a slight downturn in the number of showers and storms
on Monday as the upper high center drifts to the south and east,
although there will be potential for a few strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening over northeast New Mexico. Stronger
westerly winds will be more noticable along and north of I-40. High
temperatures Monday afternoon will continue to be hotter than
normal, and may still be near record values over portions of the
east and in the Northwest Plateau. Added a few zones to the existing
heat advisory for Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The Four Corners high begins to pivot eastward, as a broad trough
passes through the central Rockies on Tuesday. Embedded mid level
disturbances around the ejecting Four Corners high in conjunction
with moisture recycling and daytime heating will contribute towards
afternoon thunderstorm development. An ejecting shortwave will
maintain a corridor of amplified west/southwesterly flow above far
northeastern New Mexico where a moist and unstable airmass exists. At
the sfc, a boundary will push southward from the CO plains, before
stalling near the NM/OK borders. Anticipate that storms will fire
along this boundary and across the higher terrain, before pushing
eastward. Intensity of these storms will be dependent on the how
prior convection affects the boundary layer. Currently, the NAM
suggests CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg combined with 30-35 kts
of effective bulk shear, suggesting that ingredients are coming
together for a potentially favorable severe environment. Resolution
of the mesoscale features and their alignment with the synoptic setup
in future runs of the numerical models will help to shape up the
event.

Even in the wake of the departing high aloft, excessive heat will be
a concern, especially across the central highlands and southeast New
Mexico. By midweek, the high centers itself over central Texas,
allowing southerly flow to become dominant and the monsoon plume to
position itself over New Mexico. This will support cooler
temperatures with increased daily storm coverage moving into the end
of the workweek. Moving into the weekend, guidance is suggesting
that the high will begin to elongate, stretching from the ArkLaTex
region back into the Desert Southwest. This is a departure from
previous runs, which depicted the high retrograding back into New
Mexico. Resolution of this feature will determine whether the
potential for showers and thunderstorms and relief from excessive
heat will continue.

99/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The area of high pressure aloft which has recently gripped New
Mexico will slowly weaken and shift to the east and south this week,
allowing more moisture to invade western and northern New Mexico.
This subtle pattern change will lead to gradually cooler daytime
highs and increasing areal coverage and number of wetting showers
and storms. In addition, a moist surface boundary Tuesday evening
will assist with shower and storm development over northeast New
Mexico. Some dry convection with erratic and gusty winds will
continue to occur over western and central New Mexico Monday and
Tuesday before becoming wetter. Cell motion will be generally to the
east this afternoon and evening and again on Monday.

Latest extended forecast models suggest the upper high center will
stay put east of New Mexico through the next 7 days, so
afternoon and evening showers and storms will be a daily feature.

99

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ231>240.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201-209-219-220-225-236>238.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
344 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NMZ201>241-131100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
344 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
northeast and east central New Mexico during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The main risks will be large hail and damaging winds,
however, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, drier-type
thunderstorms will impact western and central New Mexico, where wind
gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. Record to near-record heat will
continue for many areas of northern and central New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for areas
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Monday. The main
risks will be large hail and strong outflow winds. These threats may
occur once again on Tuesday afternoon over far northeast New Mexico,
but confidence is relatively low at this time.

Record to near-record breaking temperatures will be a concern over
east central and southeast New Mexico for Monday and Tuesday before
slightly cooler temperatures return for mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required between 200 PM and 1000 PM MDT
for the northeast and east central plains due to strong or severe
thunderstorms. Please report severe weather to the National Weather
Service in Albuquerque at 1-888-386-7637.

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
436 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NMZ232-233-122300-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
436 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 435 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Colonias, or 15 miles northwest of Santa Rosa, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa Lake State Park and Colonias.

This includes Interstate 40 near Mile Marker 279.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3504 10494 3523 10490 3522 10454 3495 10460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 281DEG 14KT 3513 10484

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NMZ227-230-130000-
Union County-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
527 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 527 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Folsom, or 13 miles northwest of Des Moines, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines and Folsom.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 382 and 387.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3679 10425 3696 10421 3699 10367 3672 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 273DEG 23KT 3687 10404

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NMZ233-234-237-130015-
Guadalupe County-Quay County-De Baca County-
542 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DE BACA...
SOUTHWESTERN QUAY AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

At 542 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Newkirk, or 25 miles east of Santa Rosa, moving east
at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quay, House, Ragland, Cuervo and Mcalister.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 291 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibilities below one quarter mile at times.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3472 10449 3504 10442 3508 10371 3462 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 273DEG 48KT 3488 10423

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             1 SSW CAPULIN           36.73N 104.00W
07/12/2020  M0.88 INCH       UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001346

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
722 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NMZ228-130145-
Far Northeast Highlands-
722 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 722 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Wagon Mound, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wagon Mound.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 387 and 407.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3632 10468 3614 10447 3595 10480 3616 10488
      3614 10486 3615 10485 3619 10489 3621 10489
      3623 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 332DEG 16KT 3619 10474

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