Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2019
Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 3, 2019, 1:27 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 3, 2019, 1:27 PM MST (20:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2019, 2:15 PM MST
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1214 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -233 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2165 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 3, 10:35 AM MST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 10:35 AM MST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1035 AM MST Sat Aug 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS...The threat of afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain through the weekend into early next week. In addition to these storms, unseasonably hot temperatures and increased humidity will make for an uncomfortable few days. && .DISCUSSION...The latest HRRR model and the National Blend of Models (NBM) looked on track with the current forecast in the short-term. Thus, no updates necessary this morning. Please refer to the previous discussion for more details. && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/18Z. SCT-BKN clouds 20-25k ft this morning, Isolated to Scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon with SCT-BKN clouds 8-12k ft, diminishing this evening. Light surface winds this morning, then generally less than 12 kts and westerly this afternoon, becoming variable tonight. Gusty and erratic winds near any TSRA with local MVFR CIGS and VSBYS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...The daily cycle of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through the forecast period. Minimum RH values remain above 20-25 percent, and overnight recoveries will be very good. Even with the abundant moisture, temperatures warm several degrees above normal this weekend into early next week. Aside from gusty erratic winds from thunderstorm outflows, wind trends stay light and terrain driven. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Morning IR satellite is showing some mid-level clouds around SE AZ with higher level cirrus streaming across from south to north. Last evening's sounding showed a PWAT of 1.53" in Tucson, which is holding up this morning as GOES 16/17 continues to show similar values. The best moisture is pooled over the lower deserts west of Tucson with lesser moisture east of Tucson. This should set the stage for another average monsoon day with activity very similar to yesterday. That would put areas south of Tucson developing first as well as the White Mtns, then spreading across the area under SE steering flow. Tucson may once again struggle to see convection as anvil shading will likely be prevalent from early to mid afternoon convection across Santa Cruz County. This should also put central and western Pima County under the gun again as storms that form should work west into a mostly clear and unstable/juiced airmass through the afternoon and into the early evening. Strong to perhaps a severe storm or two will be possible with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats. That threat will also be possible east of Tucson across Cochise County. Northern Graham and Greenlee Counties also looks to be quite active and increased threats for heavy rain is possible over the Frye Fire burn scar. In addition to the storms, daytime high temperatures will continue to be above average with lower deserts in the mid to upper 100s through Monday. Couple this with increased low level moisture and it will feel quite uncomfortable. Isolated to scattered daily thunderstorms will continue with the best chances south and east of Tucson through early next week. Forecast guidance continues to point to another upswing in convection associated with an inverted trof by the middle of week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 3, 1:27 PM MST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Tucson AZ 127 PM MST Sat Aug 3 2019 AZZ508-512-032115- Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox- 127 PM MST Sat Aug 3 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM MST... At 127 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19 miles south of Chiricahua National Monument, moving south at 10 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Rucker Canyon. LAT...LON 3183 10952 3175 10932 3148 10937 3159 10966 TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 019DEG 9KT 3173 10946 Carpenter
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 5:48 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima | 117 min |
| Aug 2, 5:53 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 52 min |
| Aug 2, 6:45 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pima | 60 min |
| Aug 3, 1:01 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Santa Cruz | 44 min |
| Aug 3, 2:17 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 43 min |
| Aug 3, 2:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 52 min |
| Aug 3, 3:00 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 2 hr |
| Aug 3, 3:12 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 48 min | |
| Aug 3, 3:59 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 46 min | |
| Aug 3, 4:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 45 min |
| Aug 3, 4:14 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 46 min |
| Aug 3, 4:21 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Cochise | 39 min |
| Aug 3, 4:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Graham | 46 min |
| Aug 3, 4:29 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise | 40 min |
| Aug 3, 4:36 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise | 114 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2019Every special weather statement in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.