Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tucson, AZ

052 
WWUS55 KTWC 230009
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
509 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZC023-230030-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-190823T0030Z/
Santa Cruz-
509 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 508 PM MST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northeast of Rio Rico to Patagonia Lake State
Park to Nogales International Airport to 9 miles east of Nogales,
moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake State Park and Kino
Springs.

This includes Route 82 between mile markers 5 and 17.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 11073 3133 11073 3133 11088 3154 11094
      3157 11078 3151 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 063DEG 9KT 3154 11088 3147 11086 3143 11084
3134 11078

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

577 
WWUS55 KTWC 230023
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
523 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZC023-230032-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-190823T0030Z/
Santa Cruz-
523 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MST...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However gusty 
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tucson.

LAT...LON 3140 11073 3133 11073 3133 11088 3154 11094
      3157 11078 3151 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 270DEG 2KT 3154 11083 3147 11081 3143 11079
3134 11073

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A more active monsoon pattern will occur through
this weekend with temperatures returning to near or slightly below
normal. High pressure builds back overhead for the first half of
next week which will usher in drier conditions along with above
average temperatures. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms
will then exist toward the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As expected, isolated convection has developed
across the higher terrain early this afternoon. The increase in
moisture which is helping to fuel our storms today is also keeping
temperatures from reaching record levels once again, with values
generally running 3 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. That
said, still expecting max temps this afternoon to top out 4 to 7
degrees above normal.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage into the
early evening hours, especially with colliding outflows and
subsequent storm development. A few storms will be strong or severe,
primarily producing gusty winds and isolated heavy downpours, as SPC
mesoanalysis valid 22/21z shows DCAPE between 1300 and 1900 J/kg and
up to 1.3" PWAT over most of southern AZ. With how hot and dry its
been the last several days, expect especially the stronger outflows
to kick up some dust with reduced visibility at times.

Another shot of reinforcing moisture is expected to arrive Friday
which will push chances for showers and thunderstorms up even more.
We'll have to see how things unfold particularly Friday night into
Saturday morning, as remnant cloudiness from convection could do well
to inhibit development on Saturday afternoon. For what its worth,
temperatures this weekend will peak at or even slightly below
normal. This more typical monsoon pattern will be short-lived, as
models indicate high pressure setting up overhead early next week
which will dry things out and allow the return of very hot
temperatures.

Thereafter, particularly from next Wednesday onward after a few days
of sustained easterly flow aloft, moisture looks to once again
return along with an uptick in convection and a cooling of
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft MSL west of KTUS and SCT-BKN clouds
south and east of KTUS through the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered TSRA/SHRA primarily from KTUS/KOLS eastward with brief
MVFR vsby/cigs possible, particularly near terrain. Precip
decreasing this evening though a few -SHRA could linger overnight
near the International border including KDUG/KOLS. Gusty outflow
winds are possible near TSRA/SHRA up to around 40 kts. Otherwise,
SFC wind mainly SWLY to WLY around 7-14 kts becoming primarily SLY
overnight. TSRA/SHRA redevelop Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances
increase to include much of southeast Arizona into the weekend
before drier weather returns early next week. The return of deeper
monsoonal moisture will allow temperatures to fall back to near
seasonal levels by Friday which will remain through the weekend
before warmer temperatures return next week. The return of high
pressure early next week will allow temperatures to rebound back
above normal for a few days. As is typical this time of year,
thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Otherwise, 20-ft winds will generally follow normal diurnal trends
at less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ503-507-513-222100-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
134 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA...SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

At 134 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sonoita, or 21 miles northwest of Sierra Vista, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sonoita, Elgin and Fort Huachuca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 11070 3177 11055 3159 11042 3151 11066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 336DEG 7KT 3169 11061

MP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ508-512-222130-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
204 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

At 204 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Bisbee-Douglas Airport, or 18 miles northeast of
Douglas. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bisbee-Douglas Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 10929 3138 10936 3145 10962 3169 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 179DEG 2KT 3158 10939

MP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
402 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ503-513-222345-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
402 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MST...

At 401 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Parker Canyon Lake, or 17 miles east of Nogales.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lochiel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 11081 3148 11066 3137 11044 3133 11049
      3133 11077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 316DEG 0KT 3136 11064

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
434 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ503-513-230015-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
434 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MST...

At 433 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nogales International Airport, or 10 miles northeast of Nogales.
Another storm was northwest of Patagonia Lake. Both storms are
moving west at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Patagonia, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia Lake
State Park and Kino Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 11074 3149 11069 3133 11067 3133 11092
      3162 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 095DEG 11KT 3146 11080

JRM