Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

482 
WGUS75 KTWC 222344
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
444 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZC003-230115-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190823T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise-
444 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 443 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area has ended. Up to two inches of rain have 
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to continue.

Flash flooding will likely impact portions of Davis Road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of washes
and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 10975 3148 10972 3155 10993 3160 10995
      3169 10997 3165 10985

$$

JRM

696 
WGUS55 KTWC 230101
FFWTWC
AZC003-230215-
/O.EXT.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190823T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
601 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Tucson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  South central Cochise County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 715 PM MST.

* At 600 PM MST, local law enforcement reported Davis Road is closed 
  due to Flash Flooding across the warned area. Please avoid the 
  area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of washes
and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 10975 3148 10972 3155 10993 3160 10995
      3169 10997 3165 10985

$$

JRM

276 
WGUS75 KTWC 230211
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
711 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZC003-230217-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190823T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise-
711 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 715 PM MST...

The heavy rain over the warning area ended earlier this evening and 
any life threatening flooding should have receded as well. Therefore 
the Flash Flood Warning will be allowed to expire at 715 pm. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3164 10975 3148 10972 3155 10993 3160 10995
      3169 10997 3165 10985

$$

Cerniglia

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A more active monsoon pattern will occur through
this weekend with temperatures returning to near or slightly below
normal. High pressure builds back overhead for the first half of
next week which will usher in drier conditions along with above
average temperatures. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms
will then exist toward the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As expected, isolated convection has developed
across the higher terrain early this afternoon. The increase in
moisture which is helping to fuel our storms today is also keeping
temperatures from reaching record levels once again, with values
generally running 3 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. That
said, still expecting max temps this afternoon to top out 4 to 7
degrees above normal.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage into the
early evening hours, especially with colliding outflows and
subsequent storm development. A few storms will be strong or severe,
primarily producing gusty winds and isolated heavy downpours, as SPC
mesoanalysis valid 22/21z shows DCAPE between 1300 and 1900 J/kg and
up to 1.3" PWAT over most of southern AZ. With how hot and dry its
been the last several days, expect especially the stronger outflows
to kick up some dust with reduced visibility at times.

Another shot of reinforcing moisture is expected to arrive Friday
which will push chances for showers and thunderstorms up even more.
We'll have to see how things unfold particularly Friday night into
Saturday morning, as remnant cloudiness from convection could do well
to inhibit development on Saturday afternoon. For what its worth,
temperatures this weekend will peak at or even slightly below
normal. This more typical monsoon pattern will be short-lived, as
models indicate high pressure setting up overhead early next week
which will dry things out and allow the return of very hot
temperatures.

Thereafter, particularly from next Wednesday onward after a few days
of sustained easterly flow aloft, moisture looks to once again
return along with an uptick in convection and a cooling of
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft MSL west of KTUS and SCT-BKN clouds
south and east of KTUS through the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered TSRA/SHRA primarily from KTUS/KOLS eastward with brief
MVFR vsby/cigs possible, particularly near terrain. Precip
decreasing this evening though a few -SHRA could linger overnight
near the International border including KDUG/KOLS. Gusty outflow
winds are possible near TSRA/SHRA up to around 40 kts. Otherwise,
SFC wind mainly SWLY to WLY around 7-14 kts becoming primarily SLY
overnight. TSRA/SHRA redevelop Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances
increase to include much of southeast Arizona into the weekend
before drier weather returns early next week. The return of deeper
monsoonal moisture will allow temperatures to fall back to near
seasonal levels by Friday which will remain through the weekend
before warmer temperatures return next week. The return of high
pressure early next week will allow temperatures to rebound back
above normal for a few days. As is typical this time of year,
thunderstorms may produce gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Otherwise, 20-ft winds will generally follow normal diurnal trends
at less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ503-507-513-222100-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
134 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA...SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

At 134 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sonoita, or 21 miles northwest of Sierra Vista, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sonoita, Elgin and Fort Huachuca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 11070 3177 11055 3159 11042 3151 11066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 336DEG 7KT 3169 11061

MP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

AZZ508-512-222130-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
204 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

At 204 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Bisbee-Douglas Airport, or 18 miles northeast of
Douglas. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bisbee-Douglas Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 10929 3138 10936 3145 10962 3169 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 179DEG 2KT 3158 10939

MP