Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
916 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system interacting with deep moisture over the
area will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms today. Some
of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and hail. The weather system will remain
over southwestern Arizona through at least Thursday before tracking
northward and exiting the state on Friday. The proximity of this
system will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
with improving weather area-wide anticipated on Friday. Drier
weather will return this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widespread rain event continues across most of
southern Arizona. Storms have been training resulting in flash
flooding. Flash flood watch remains in effect for eastern half of
the area into this evening. Severe thunderstorms, some briefly
spinning up a tornado, are possible over the western half of Pima
county where there is more sunshine and heating and this area is
closer to the upper low. This upper low was located between Yuma
and Rocky Point. Made some changes to the forecast, especially to
the high temperatures today for areas where it raining.

Activity quieting down tonight before ramping back up tomorrow
morning. More on this in the afternoon discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA becoming more widespread through
early morning hours and continuing through this evening. Some storms
could be strong to severe with hail and strong wind gusts. Ceilings
will generally be SCT-BKN 4k-8k ft MSL with MVFR and even occasional
IFR ceilings in and around thunderstorms. SFC wind generally less
than 10 kts this morning becoming easterly at KTUS 8-12 kts this
afternoon and evening. Winds at KOLS and KDUG will be out of the
southwest to northwest at 8-12 kts this afternoon and evening. Wind
gusts to 40+ kts near TSRA and with any thunderstorm outflow
boundaries. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
becoming widespread this morning into the afternoon ahead of a low
pressure system. Locally heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm
outflows will be possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
then continue Wednesday into Thursday with just isolated activity
Friday. Dry conditions are then expected this weekend into early
next week. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and less than 15
mph, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms where strong, gusty and
erratic winds will be possible.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-504-
  506>508-511>514.

 Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM MST this morning for AZZ502-505-
  509-515.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
353 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

AZZ502-504-241145-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
353 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM MST...

At 353 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Pisinemo, or 30 miles northwest of Sells, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Covered Wells, Anegam, San Simon, Palo Verde Stand, Ak
Chin, San Luis, Santa Rosa School and San Simon West.

LAT...LON 3206 11223 3219 11243 3259 11214 3244 11179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 220DEG 32KT 3218 11229

AH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
504 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

AZZ502>504-515-241245-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
504 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
545 AM MST...

At 503 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Kitt Peak, or 20 miles southeast of Sells, moving
north at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sells, Three Points, Topawa, San Miguel, San Isidro, Kitt Peak, Ali
Chukson, Vamori, Fresnal, Choulic, Newfield, Coldfields, Sasabe,
South Comobabi, Fresnal Canyon, Artesia, Pan Tak, Hashan Chuchg, Ali
Molina and South Komelik.

LAT...LON 3145 11143 3166 11209 3205 11176 3209 11133
      3177 11131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 194DEG 27KT 3176 11158

GL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
852 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

AZZ502-241630-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
852 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
930 AM MST...

At 852 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Topawa, or 11 miles south of Sells, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sells, Topawa, Vamori, Cowlic, Artesia, Itak and Ali Molina.

LAT...LON 3160 11190 3164 11202 3191 11198 3190 11173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 196DEG 15KT 3175 11190