Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently along the Interstate 44 corridor through NE
OK will sweep southward and clear the forecast area later tonight.
Pre-frontal wind shift and ill defined warm frontal zone mark the
more clear warm sector conditions across south central OK through
far SE OK. This area resides in a more favorable environment for
any severe storms with recent convection across SE OK able to
realize the ample instability. Further north the airmass preceding
the cold front does support some severe potential but to a lesser
degree. Veered wind profiles offer plenty of deep layer shear for
a few supercells, however low level winds remain meager favoring
the predominate svr threats as hail and wind.

Sfc high builds into the region Wed offering a cool down. Low
temps Wed night realize strong radiational effects which remains
a weak area within The National Blend of Models guidance.

Return flow and warmer temps return Thursday with breezy south
winds Friday allowing meager moisture return ahead of a fast
moving weak wave on Saturday. This will mark the next chance of
precip with a potential stronger wave arriving into the Plains on
Sunday. The degree of moisture return ahead of this system is an
uncertainty and what corridor of instability does develop will
likely be narrow. Strong forcing along the advancing cold front
will increase precip chances Sunday into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  63  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  65  43  73 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   45  65  40  74 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   40  63  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  59  35  68 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   41  61  37  68 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   44  63  40  72 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   40  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   48  67  42  72 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is just entering northeast Oklahoma this afternoon,
extending from Foraker and Pawnee southwest into central
Oklahoma. Showers or areas of drizzle are possible along the
frontal zone in northeast Oklahoma as it passes through the area.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late
afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma into west central
Arkansas. The highest potential for any severe weather will be
across far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated large hail or damaging
wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Elevated
showers and storms will be possible north of the front across
portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through this
afternoon.

The front will pass through the area tonight, with gusty north
winds behind it and temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s by
midnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Seasonable temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday night
into Saturday. Higher thunderstorm chances will exist Sunday
night into early Monday as a strong upper level storm system and
associated cold front move into the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

OKZ049-053-152130-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
346 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND NORTH
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Kellond, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Rattan...
Kent...                           Kellond...
Messer...                         Darwin...
Speer...                          Dela...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 9573 3416 9578 3433 9578 3429 9538
      3403 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 283DEG 19KT 3424 9576

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
403 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

OKZ053-152145-
Choctaw OK-
403 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Soper, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Soper...
Goodland...                       Grant...
Ord...                            Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9551 3388 9554 3388 9555 3391 9555
      3393 9556 3393 9559 3394 9560 3392 9561
      3391 9564 3397 9578 3410 9571 3405 9544
      3387 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 296DEG 16KT 3403 9569

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