Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2019
Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK
NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 15, 2019, 4:03 PM CDT for Choctaw County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 15, 2019, 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 15, 2019, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 42 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tulsa, OK
County Choctaw County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 187 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 737 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 998 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 247 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 234 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 7.7
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 15, 3:10 PM CDT, 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 3:10 PM CDT, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Cold front currently along the Interstate 44 corridor through NE OK will sweep southward and clear the forecast area later tonight. Pre-frontal wind shift and ill defined warm frontal zone mark the more clear warm sector conditions across south central OK through far SE OK. This area resides in a more favorable environment for any severe storms with recent convection across SE OK able to realize the ample instability. Further north the airmass preceding the cold front does support some severe potential but to a lesser degree. Veered wind profiles offer plenty of deep layer shear for a few supercells, however low level winds remain meager favoring the predominate svr threats as hail and wind. Sfc high builds into the region Wed offering a cool down. Low temps Wed night realize strong radiational effects which remains a weak area within The National Blend of Models guidance. Return flow and warmer temps return Thursday with breezy south winds Friday allowing meager moisture return ahead of a fast moving weak wave on Saturday. This will mark the next chance of precip with a potential stronger wave arriving into the Plains on Sunday. The degree of moisture return ahead of this system is an uncertainty and what corridor of instability does develop will likely be narrow. Strong forcing along the advancing cold front will increase precip chances Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 42 63 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 46 65 43 73 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 45 65 40 74 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 40 63 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 40 59 35 68 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 41 61 37 68 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 44 63 40 72 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 40 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 F10 44 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 48 67 42 72 / 40 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && LONG TERM....07
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 15, 12:54 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 1254 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. ONSET...After 3 PM. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... A cold front is just entering northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, extending from Foraker and Pawnee southwest into central Oklahoma. Showers or areas of drizzle are possible along the frontal zone in northeast Oklahoma as it passes through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. The highest potential for any severe weather will be across far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. Elevated showers and storms will be possible north of the front across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through this afternoon. The front will pass through the area tonight, with gusty north winds behind it and temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s by midnight. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards. FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Seasonable temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday night into Saturday. Higher thunderstorm chances will exist Sunday night into early Monday as a strong upper level storm system and associated cold front move into the area. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. CORFIDI
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 15, 3:46 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
OKZ049-053-152130-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
346 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND NORTH
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...
At 345 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Kellond, moving east at 20 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers... Rattan...
Kent... Kellond...
Messer... Darwin...
Speer... Dela...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3411 9573 3416 9578 3433 9578 3429 9538
3403 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 283DEG 19KT 3424 9576Special weather statement, Oct 15, 4:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
403 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
OKZ053-152145-
Choctaw OK-
403 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...
At 403 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Soper, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo... Soper...
Goodland... Grant...
Ord... Gay...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3389 9551 3388 9554 3388 9555 3391 9555
3393 9556 3393 9559 3394 9560 3392 9561
3391 9564 3397 9578 3410 9571 3405 9544
3387 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 296DEG 16KT 3403 9569The office that day
Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 3:46 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Choctaw | 44 min |
| Oct 15, 4:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Choctaw | 43 min |
| Oct 15, 4:29 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Choctaw | 31 min |
| Oct 15, 6:25 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Pittsburg | 35 min |
| Oct 15, 6:41 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | TSA | Choctaw | 34 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2019Every special weather statement in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.