Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with
the greatest concentration of activity in the vicinity of an
outflow boundary across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue into the
early evening hours and should fade with the loss of daytime
heating. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
strong gusty winds the main concern.

Heat headlines continue through 9 pm Tonight across a good
chunk of the area as well. However, areas that see showers
and thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries will see
some relief before that time. Will more than likely start trimming
away at the advisory/warning areas before expiration time.

Heat will not be the big weather story over the next several
days as the weather pattern becomes more unsettled across
the region as a surface boundary sags into the area and stalls
out as a series of mid-level shortwaves embedded in the west-northwest
flow aloft affect the region. This will result in several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas into the weekend with the greatest chance of activity
north of Interstate 40. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe during this time with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

The next chances of showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday as
the next cold front approaches the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  73  85 /  40  50  70  60
FSM   75  93  74  88 /  20  50  50  70
MLC   76  94  75  90 /  10  30  40  60
BVO   72  87  70  83 /  50  60  70  60
FYV   72  86  70  81 /  30  60  60  80
BYV   71  87  70  82 /  50  70  70  80
MKO   73  91  72  86 /  30  50  60  70
MIO   71  85  70  81 /  70  60  70  70
F10   74  93  72  89 /  20  40  50  60
HHW   75  94  75  92 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>062-
     064>067-070>076.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
An excessive heat warning is in effect for west central Arkansas
this afternoon, with a heat advisory in effect for much of
eastern Oklahoma. Maximum heat index values will climb into the
110 to 115 degree range across west central Arkansas. Otherwise,
across the rest of the advisory area, expect heat index values
between 105 and 110 degrees.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. Any storms will bring some
brief relief from the heat, but they will also bring lightning,
heavy downpours and gusty winds. There is the potential for
isolated damaging winds with the strongest storms. Be prepared to
take shelter inside if a storm approaches your area.

Additional thunderstorms will likely move into the area from the
north overnight. These storms will pose a limited severe weather
threat, especially near the Kansas state line.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will be located near the Kansas and Oklahoma
border by Thursday morning and will be the focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Clouds and
scattered storms will keep temperatures much cooler, with highs
only in the 80s on Friday and Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

OKZ060-067-212045-
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
317 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WAGONER AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Stonebluff. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Coweta...
Leonard...

LAT...LON 3591 9570 3589 9583 3601 9585 3602 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 172DEG 2KT 3596 9577

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

OKZ073-074-212045-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-
320 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
Kinta. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stigler...                        Quinton...
Whitefield...                     Kinta...
Enterprise...                     Lewisville...

LAT...LON 3508 9543 3526 9545 3527 9526 3526 9525
      3526 9524 3528 9521 3528 9514 3506 9514
      3506 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 172DEG 2KT 3515 9529

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
322 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

OKZ069-072-212045-
Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
322 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Brushy. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Brushy...

LAT...LON 3557 9454 3554 9472 3568 9475 3570 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 172DEG 2KT 3562 9465

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             CATOOSA                 36.19N 95.75W
08/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       ROGERS             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED BY NWS EMPLOYEE IN CATOOSA.

&&

SNIDER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-212145-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
339 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BENTON...NORTHERN
MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Lost Valley State Park to 7 miles
southeast of Springdale. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Huntsville...                     Lowell...
Elkins...                         Bethel Heights...
Hindsville...                     Wesley...
Carrollton...                     Rudd...
Kingston...                       Forum...
Aurora...                         Hobbs State Park...
Clifty...                         Withrow Springs State Park...
War Eagle...                      Marble...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 76 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9348 3608 9348 3608 9345 3599 9345
      3596 9384 3605 9410 3634 9423 3632 9330
      3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 254DEG 12KT 3609 9341 3611 9404

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