Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with
the greatest concentration of activity in the vicinity of an
outflow boundary across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue into the
early evening hours and should fade with the loss of daytime
heating. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
strong gusty winds the main concern.

Heat headlines continue through 9 pm Tonight across a good
chunk of the area as well. However, areas that see showers
and thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries will see
some relief before that time. Will more than likely start trimming
away at the advisory/warning areas before expiration time.

Heat will not be the big weather story over the next several
days as the weather pattern becomes more unsettled across
the region as a surface boundary sags into the area and stalls
out as a series of mid-level shortwaves embedded in the west-northwest
flow aloft affect the region. This will result in several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas into the weekend with the greatest chance of activity
north of Interstate 40. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe during this time with locally heavy rainfall also possible.

The next chances of showers and thunderstorms will come Tuesday as
the next cold front approaches the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  73  85 /  40  50  70  60
FSM   75  93  74  88 /  20  50  50  70
MLC   76  94  75  90 /  10  30  40  60
BVO   72  87  70  83 /  50  60  70  60
FYV   72  86  70  81 /  30  60  60  80
BYV   71  87  70  82 /  50  70  70  80
MKO   73  91  72  86 /  30  50  60  70
MIO   71  85  70  81 /  70  60  70  70
F10   74  93  72  89 /  20  40  50  60
HHW   75  94  75  92 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>062-
     064>067-070>076.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
An excessive heat warning is in effect for west central Arkansas
this afternoon, with a heat advisory in effect for much of
eastern Oklahoma. Maximum heat index values will climb into the
110 to 115 degree range across west central Arkansas. Otherwise,
across the rest of the advisory area, expect heat index values
between 105 and 110 degrees.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. Any storms will bring some
brief relief from the heat, but they will also bring lightning,
heavy downpours and gusty winds. There is the potential for
isolated damaging winds with the strongest storms. Be prepared to
take shelter inside if a storm approaches your area.

Additional thunderstorms will likely move into the area from the
north overnight. These storms will pose a limited severe weather
threat, especially near the Kansas state line.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will be located near the Kansas and Oklahoma
border by Thursday morning and will be the focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Clouds and
scattered storms will keep temperatures much cooler, with highs
only in the 80s on Friday and Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

OKZ060-061-211945-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
211 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tulsa
International Airport, moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Owasso...
Catoosa...                        Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 227 and 236.

LAT...LON 3631 9580 3616 9575 3616 9576 3615 9576
      3610 9594 3620 9600 3625 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 160DEG 10KT 3619 9589

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

OKZ060-212015-
Tulsa OK-
239 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bixby, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Liberty...

LAT...LON 3590 9603 3602 9594 3595 9581 3585 9586
      3586 9594 3589 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 215DEG 11KT 3591 9590

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
301 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

ARZ001-OKZ063-212030-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
301 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BENTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southeast of Colcord to near Gentry. These
storms were nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Siloam Springs...                 Gentry...
Decatur...                        Colcord...
Springtown...                     Fairmount...
Cherokee City...

LAT...LON 3618 9469 3622 9439 3633 9445 3630 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 296DEG 2KT 3623 9465 3624 9448