Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tulsa, OK

020 
WWUS54 KTSA 080608
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
108 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

OKC113-117-080630-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-190508T0630Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
108 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTH CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 108 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Cedar Vale to 5 miles north of
Blackburn, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Elgin...                          Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Webb City...                      

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9628 3642 9657 3643 9681 3658 9679
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 268DEG 37KT 3699 9649 3645 9663 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1158 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Expansive line of storms is steadily expanding through central OK
and will continue eastward overnight. Terminals in western AR will
not be impacted until much later tonight and likely with a more
weakened state of storms. Several hours of light to moderate rain
and periodic thunder is possible behind the leading edge w/
improving conditions thereafter from west to east. Additional
storm chances may develop into NE OK late tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 933 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones was mainly to add tornado watch 149 headlines to
parts of NE OK this evening. Adjusted pops through 06z across
eastern Oklahoma based on latest radar trends.  Area of storms
out in western OK still expected to develop into a squall line and
advance towards northeast OK later tonight. Timing per the CAM
solutions has line of convection entering northeast Oklahoma
between 07z- 08z. The primary severe threat will be straight line
winds, however the potential for brief spinup tornadoes will be
mainly west of highway 75. The line of storms is expected to
weaken as it moves further across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas towards sunrise.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  75  54  64 /  90  80  30  10
FSM   65  74  63  73 /  40 100  40  10
MLC   65  74  60  68 /  70  90  30  10
BVO   63  75  52  62 /  90  70  30  10
FYV   63  70  60  67 /  40  90  40  10
BYV   62  72  61  68 /  40  80  40  10
MKO   64  73  58  66 /  80  90  30  10
MIO   63  72  55  62 /  70  90  40  10
F10   64  74  56  66 /  90  80  30  10
HHW   65  74  64  75 /  60 100  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1119 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1119 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA....Northeast Oklahoma, mainly west of highway 75.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move into eastern
Oklahoma between Midnight and 2 AM, then sweep through the area
through sunrise Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear ahead of
this line will be sufficient for brief spinup tornadoes, mainly to
the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma. The line should weaken
gradually as it moves toward western Arkansas, however the damaging
wind threat will persist over much of eastern Oklahoma.
Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and may lead
to flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
         ...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms will continue to advance across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning. Damaging winds
are the primary threat, with an isolated short-lived tornado and
large hail possible.

At this time, severe weather potential appears increasingly
limited later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface instability
ahead of an advancing cold front will likely be hampered by
convection from earlier Wednesday. However, isolated severe
weather remains possible across northeast Oklahoma with Large hail
and damaging winds as the main threats. The stronger storms will
also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. Storms will be exiting western Arkansas Thursday
morning as the cold front moves east.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter network activation will likely be needed through the
morning Wednesday, and possibly again by late Wednesday afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1009 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ054-059-080345-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1009 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND WESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1009 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Glencoe, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Sooner Lake...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3660 9704 3664 9705 3661 9668 3621 9682
      3625 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3651 9701 3653 9698 3655 9690
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 189DEG 27KT 3628 9693