Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tulsa, OK

952 
WWUS54 KTSA 080517
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

OKC113-117-080530-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190508T0530Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1217 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 1217 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southwest of Dexter to Kaw Lake to 2 miles
west of Sooner Lake, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Sooner Lake...                    Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9641 3693 9641 3641 9681 3637 9703
      3651 9703 3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 249DEG 28KT 3710 9685 3675 9687 3642 9708 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
933 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones was mainly to add tornado watch 149 headlines to
parts of NE OK this evening. Adjusted pops through 06z across
eastern Oklahoma based on latest radar trends.  Area of storms
out in western OK still expected to develop into a squall line and
advance towards northeast OK later tonight. Timing per the CAM
solutions has line of convection entering northeast Oklahoma
between 07z- 08z. The primary severe threat will be straight line
winds, however the potential for brief spinup tornadoes will be
mainly west of highway 75. The line of storms is expected to
weaken as it moves further across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas towards sunrise.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1119 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1119 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA....Northeast Oklahoma, mainly west of highway 75.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Around Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move into eastern
Oklahoma between Midnight and 2 AM, then sweep through the area
through sunrise Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear ahead of
this line will be sufficient for brief spinup tornadoes, mainly to
the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma. The line should weaken
gradually as it moves toward western Arkansas, however the damaging
wind threat will persist over much of eastern Oklahoma.
Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible and may lead
to flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
         ...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms will continue to advance across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Wednesday morning. Damaging winds
are the primary threat, with an isolated short-lived tornado and
large hail possible.

At this time, severe weather potential appears increasingly
limited later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Surface instability
ahead of an advancing cold front will likely be hampered by
convection from earlier Wednesday. However, isolated severe
weather remains possible across northeast Oklahoma with Large hail
and damaging winds as the main threats. The stronger storms will
also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. Storms will be exiting western Arkansas Thursday
morning as the cold front moves east.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter network activation will likely be needed through the
morning Wednesday, and possibly again by late Wednesday afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1009 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ054-059-080345-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1009 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND WESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1009 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Glencoe, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Sooner Lake...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3660 9704 3664 9705 3661 9668 3621 9682
      3625 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3651 9701 3653 9698 3655 9690
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 189DEG 27KT 3628 9693