Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tulsa, OK

206 
WWUS54 KTSA 250139
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKC079-127-250148-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-190325T0215Z/
Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
839 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3429 9515 3445 9521 3473 9450 3464 9446
      3451 9447 3451 9504 3432 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 248DEG 40KT 3444 9496 

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
735 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Severe event is ongoing, and has played out much like the HRRR has
been suggesting. A pair of supercells developed to the southwest
of FSM and are moving east southeast with the Bunkers right
moving supercell vector. Have had baseball size hail reported with
one of the supercells. With the straight line hodograph wind
profile, there have been several left movers, some of which could
also extend the severe threat some over far SE OK longer into the
evening. Portions of the watch have been cleared behind the
convection, and more of it will be cleared in the next hour or so.
Current PoPs trends are in great shape, and no changes are planned
attm.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...the upper low was positioned across Northern
Missouri/Southern Iowa with the cold front extending southwestward
through Southwest Missouri into Northeast Oklahoma along a line
from near Grove to Okemah and finally into South Central Oklahoma
and Western Texas. Latest meso analysis indicated the cap
continuing to weaken with a surface instability axis centered
along and just east of the cold front. In response...radar echoes
have begun to develop along the front across East Central
Oklahoma...moving eastward toward Northwest Arkansas.

Into the evening hours...the cold front is expected to continue to
slide east southeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas as the upper low begins to trek more southeast toward the
Ohio River Valley. The surface instability axis is forecast to be
maximized across Southeast Oklahoma...where surface dewpoints in
the low 60s currently resided. Thus...as the cap continues to
erode into the early evening hours...thunderstorms are forecast to
continue to develop along the frontal boundary mainly across
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas with the potential to
become strong to severe. 40-50KT of deep layer shear combined
with steep mid level lapse rates will allow for the potential for
large hail and also damaging winds to be the main threats with
this activity. 0-1km shear values continue to look fairly weak
which should limit over all tornado potentials...though the threat
is not zero. The greater severe potential looks to be generally
along and east of a line from near Antlers to near Fort Smith
where the surface instability max was located.

Current indications are that by mid evening...03z...the cap
should begin strengthening over the region as the cold front is
forecast to be nearly exiting the CWA to the south and east. The
result is the greater thunderstorm potential should shift south
and east of the CWA with any remaining thunderstorms exiting the
CWA by 06z. Between the 03-06z range...a decreasing strong/severe
potential will remain possible though much more limited than
earlier in the evening.

Behind the cold front...drier air and northerly winds will spread
southward over the region tonight as well as cloud cover
associated with the backside of the upper low. These conditions
will help to keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the
40s forecast for most locations over the CWA. During the day
Monday...this cloud cover looks to remain over mainly Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until another quick moving
shortwave within upper level northwesterly flow pushes through the
region Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this shortwave...a ridge of
high pressure is progged to push through the Plains with a return
of southerly winds and a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday and become gusty Thursday
ahead of the next forecast low pressure looking to move into the
region. Gusts 25-35 mph and temps back in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will help to increase fire weather dangers for the CWA before
moisture returns with the approaching low pressure system Friday.
Latest extended model solutions differ on the timing of this next
system and its associated cold front. Thus...for this
forecast...have continued with a blended approach with shower and
thunderstorm chances becoming possible Thursday and increasing
Friday into Saturday as the system moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  60  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   48  64  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  65  39  66 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   44  59  36  63 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   44  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   46  55  37  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   46  61  40  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   45  56  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
F10   46  61  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   50  68  44  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Rogers to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing along a slow-
moving cold front extending from near Rogers southwestward to near
McAlester. Additional development is expected through the evening
hours before the front finally pushes east of the area by late
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms, as instability and wind shear will support
isolated supercell structures.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather will prevail for early in the upcoming week
with increasing winds and fire weather concerns by Wednesday,
especially across eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances return
for late week as low level moisture increases and a stronger storm
system approaches the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
810 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-250145-
Pushmataha OK-
810 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 810 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cloudy, moving
east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Oleta...                          Cloudy...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3437 9539 3443 9505 3425 9505 3424 9515
      3420 9515 3419 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 261DEG 45KT 3429 9529

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-053-250145-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
812 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA AND
NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 812 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
Soper, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rattan...                         Soper...
Hugo Lake State Park...           Kent...
Oleta...                          Messer...
Apple...                          Speer...
Unger...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3400 9580 3411 9583 3424 9531 3404 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 259DEG 31KT 3406 9575

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
817 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             CROSSES                 35.87N 93.91W
03/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             BOKOSHE                 35.19N 94.79W
03/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
821 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-250145-
Pushmataha OK-
821 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 821 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Antlers, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Kellond...
Dela...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3421 9578 3436 9552 3418 9544 3416 9550
      3416 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 240DEG 16KT 3418 9570

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
826 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 S STIGLER             35.20N 95.12W
03/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            OK   PUBLIC

            SIZE ESTIMATED FROM A PHOTO RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA
            TWITTER ACCOUNT.

&&

KAH