Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tulsa, OK

598 
WWUS54 KTSA 250022
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
722 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKC023-250031-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190325T0045Z/
Choctaw OK-
722 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tulsa.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Northeast Choctaw county near Apple until 7:45 PM. 

LAT...LON 3388 9585 3391 9588 3392 9591 3395 9594
      3400 9594 3413 9567 3399 9529 3393 9556
      3394 9560 3393 9560 3391 9563 3389 9573
      3390 9575 3388 9576 3387 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 249DEG 39KT 3401 9569 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
410 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...the upper low was positioned across Northern
Missouri/Southern Iowa with the cold front extending southwestward
through Southwest Missouri into Northeast Oklahoma along a line
from near Grove to Okemah and finally into South Central Oklahoma
and Western Texas. Latest meso analysis indicated the cap
continuing to weaken with a surface instability axis centered
along and just east of the cold front. In response...radar echoes
have begun to develop along the front across East Central
Oklahoma...moving eastward toward Northwest Arkansas.

Into the evening hours...the cold front is expected to continue to
slide east southeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas as the upper low begins to trek more southeast toward the
Ohio River Valley. The surface instability axis is forecast to be
maximized across Southeast Oklahoma...where surface dewpoints in
the low 60s currently resided. Thus...as the cap continues to
erode into the early evening hours...thunderstorms are forecast to
continue to develop along the frontal boundary mainly across
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas with the potential to
become strong to severe. 40-50KT of deep layer shear combined
with steep mid level lapse rates will allow for the potential for
large hail and also damaging winds to be the main threats with
this activity. 0-1km shear values continue to look fairly weak
which should limit over all tornado potentials...though the threat
is not zero. The greater severe potential looks to be generally
along and east of a line from near Antlers to near Fort Smith
where the surface instability max was located.

Current indications are that by mid evening...03z...the cap
should begin strengthening over the region as the cold front is
forecast to be nearly exiting the CWA to the south and east. The
result is the greater thunderstorm potential should shift south
and east of the CWA with any remaining thunderstorms exiting the
CWA by 06z. Between the 03-06z range...a decreasing strong/severe
potential will remain possible though much more limited than
earlier in the evening.

Behind the cold front...drier air and northerly winds will spread
southward over the region tonight as well as cloud cover
associated with the backside of the upper low. These conditions
will help to keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the
40s forecast for most locations over the CWA. During the day
Monday...this cloud cover looks to remain over mainly Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until another quick moving
shortwave within upper level northwesterly flow pushes through the
region Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this shortwave...a ridge of
high pressure is progged to push through the Plains with a return
of southerly winds and a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday and become gusty Thursday
ahead of the next forecast low pressure looking to move into the
region. Gusts 25-35 mph and temps back in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will help to increase fire weather dangers for the CWA before
moisture returns with the approaching low pressure system Friday.
Latest extended model solutions differ on the timing of this next
system and its associated cold front. Thus...for this
forecast...have continued with a blended approach with shower and
thunderstorm chances becoming possible Thursday and increasing
Friday into Saturday as the system moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  60  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   48  64  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  65  39  66 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   44  59  36  63 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   44  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   46  55  37  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   46  61  40  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   45  56  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
F10   46  61  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   50  68  44  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Rogers to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing along a slow-
moving cold front extending from near Rogers southwestward to near
McAlester. Additional development is expected through the evening
hours before the front finally pushes east of the area by late
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms, as instability and wind shear will support
isolated supercell structures.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather will prevail for early in the upcoming week
with increasing winds and fire weather concerns by Wednesday,
especially across eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances return
for late week as low level moisture increases and a stronger storm
system approaches the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ053-250015-
Choctaw OK-
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Soper, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny  to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Soper...
Goodland...                       Grant...
Ord...                            Gay...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3387 9580 3390 9584 3412 9561 3396 9536
      3389 9555 3393 9556 3394 9560 3392 9561
      3391 9564 3391 9567 3389 9569 3388 9571
      3390 9574 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 239DEG 29KT 3391 9572

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             3 SSW POTEAU            35.01N 94.64W
03/24/2019  E2.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
645 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ020-250015-
Franklin AR-
645 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Ozark, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ozark...                          Wiederkehr Village...
Jethro...                         Barnes...
Watalula...                       Cravens...
Paradise...                       Taft...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 31 and
42.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3548 9371 3548 9391 3562 9395 3567 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 256DEG 22KT 3554 9386

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ075-076-250015-
Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
651 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LATIMER AND WEST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Fanshawe, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wister...                         Fanshawe...
Lake Wister State Park...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3492 9507 3505 9508 3506 9502 3506 9493
      3507 9493 3510 9473 3490 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 273DEG 26KT 3498 9499

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             1 S POCOLA              35.22N 94.48W
03/24/2019  E0.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0644 PM     HAIL             4 NW OZARK              35.53N 93.88W
03/24/2019  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON I-40 NEAR MILE MARKER 32.

0630 PM     HAIL             3 SW POTEAU             35.02N 94.66W
03/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN POTEAU AND WISTER.

0650 PM     HAIL             5 SSE POTEAU            34.99N 94.59W
03/24/2019  E2.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
701 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ076-250030-
Le Flore OK-
701 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast of
Octavia, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Octavia...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3451 9476 3467 9446 3452 9446 3451 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 244DEG 42KT 3447 9462