Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tulsa, OK

593 
WWUS54 KTSA 242354 RRA
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
654 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARC131-OKC079-250030-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190325T0030Z/
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
654 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND EAST CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES...

At 654 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Hartford, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Mansfield...
Hartford...                       Huntington...
Midland...                        Patterson...
Arkola...                         Crossroads...
Dayton...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 9416 3508 9422 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3493 9444 3492 9445 3494 9461 3508 9456
      3513 9415 3510 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 278DEG 28KT 3500 9449 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

075 
WWUS54 KTSA 250017
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKC079-250026-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190325T0030Z/
Le Flore OK-
717 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3503 9442 3503 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 280DEG 23KT 3497 9434 

$$

ARC131-250030-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190325T0030Z/
Sebastian AR-
717 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY...

At 716 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Hartford, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hartford...                       Patterson...
Liberty...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3503 9442 3503 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 280DEG 23KT 3497 9434 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

077 
WWUS54 KTSA 250027
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARC131-250037-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190325T0030Z/
Sebastian AR-
727 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Arkansas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tulsa.

LAT...LON 3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3503 9442 3503 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 278DEG 31KT 3496 9423 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
410 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...the upper low was positioned across Northern
Missouri/Southern Iowa with the cold front extending southwestward
through Southwest Missouri into Northeast Oklahoma along a line
from near Grove to Okemah and finally into South Central Oklahoma
and Western Texas. Latest meso analysis indicated the cap
continuing to weaken with a surface instability axis centered
along and just east of the cold front. In response...radar echoes
have begun to develop along the front across East Central
Oklahoma...moving eastward toward Northwest Arkansas.

Into the evening hours...the cold front is expected to continue to
slide east southeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas as the upper low begins to trek more southeast toward the
Ohio River Valley. The surface instability axis is forecast to be
maximized across Southeast Oklahoma...where surface dewpoints in
the low 60s currently resided. Thus...as the cap continues to
erode into the early evening hours...thunderstorms are forecast to
continue to develop along the frontal boundary mainly across
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas with the potential to
become strong to severe. 40-50KT of deep layer shear combined
with steep mid level lapse rates will allow for the potential for
large hail and also damaging winds to be the main threats with
this activity. 0-1km shear values continue to look fairly weak
which should limit over all tornado potentials...though the threat
is not zero. The greater severe potential looks to be generally
along and east of a line from near Antlers to near Fort Smith
where the surface instability max was located.

Current indications are that by mid evening...03z...the cap
should begin strengthening over the region as the cold front is
forecast to be nearly exiting the CWA to the south and east. The
result is the greater thunderstorm potential should shift south
and east of the CWA with any remaining thunderstorms exiting the
CWA by 06z. Between the 03-06z range...a decreasing strong/severe
potential will remain possible though much more limited than
earlier in the evening.

Behind the cold front...drier air and northerly winds will spread
southward over the region tonight as well as cloud cover
associated with the backside of the upper low. These conditions
will help to keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the
40s forecast for most locations over the CWA. During the day
Monday...this cloud cover looks to remain over mainly Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until another quick moving
shortwave within upper level northwesterly flow pushes through the
region Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this shortwave...a ridge of
high pressure is progged to push through the Plains with a return
of southerly winds and a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday and become gusty Thursday
ahead of the next forecast low pressure looking to move into the
region. Gusts 25-35 mph and temps back in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will help to increase fire weather dangers for the CWA before
moisture returns with the approaching low pressure system Friday.
Latest extended model solutions differ on the timing of this next
system and its associated cold front. Thus...for this
forecast...have continued with a blended approach with shower and
thunderstorm chances becoming possible Thursday and increasing
Friday into Saturday as the system moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  60  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   48  64  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  65  39  66 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   44  59  36  63 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   44  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   46  55  37  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   46  61  40  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   45  56  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
F10   46  61  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   50  68  44  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Rogers to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing along a slow-
moving cold front extending from near Rogers southwestward to near
McAlester. Additional development is expected through the evening
hours before the front finally pushes east of the area by late
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms, as instability and wind shear will support
isolated supercell structures.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather will prevail for early in the upcoming week
with increasing winds and fire weather concerns by Wednesday,
especially across eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances return
for late week as low level moisture increases and a stronger storm
system approaches the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-250000-
Pushmataha OK-
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Cloudy, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cloudy...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3428 9535 3447 9509 3445 9505 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3416 9515 3416 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 237DEG 36KT 3425 9522

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-250000-
Pushmataha OK-
628 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Kellond, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Kosoma...
Kellond...                        Moyers...
Darwin...                         Dela...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3416 9578 3430 9578 3440 9557 3416 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 263DEG 21KT 3423 9574

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             SHADY POINT             35.13N 94.66W
03/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             POTEAU                  35.05N 94.62W
03/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO GOLF BALL HAIL ALMOST COVERING THE GROUND IN
            DOWNTOWN POTEAU.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ053-250015-
Choctaw OK-
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Soper, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny  to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Soper...
Goodland...                       Grant...
Ord...                            Gay...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3387 9580 3390 9584 3412 9561 3396 9536
      3389 9555 3393 9556 3394 9560 3392 9561
      3391 9564 3391 9567 3389 9569 3388 9571
      3390 9574 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 239DEG 29KT 3391 9572

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             3 SSW POTEAU            35.01N 94.64W
03/24/2019  E2.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH