Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
410 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
At mid afternoon...the upper low was positioned across Northern
Missouri/Southern Iowa with the cold front extending southwestward
through Southwest Missouri into Northeast Oklahoma along a line
from near Grove to Okemah and finally into South Central Oklahoma
and Western Texas. Latest meso analysis indicated the cap
continuing to weaken with a surface instability axis centered
along and just east of the cold front. In response...radar echoes
have begun to develop along the front across East Central
Oklahoma...moving eastward toward Northwest Arkansas.

Into the evening hours...the cold front is expected to continue to
slide east southeast through Southeast Oklahoma and Western
Arkansas as the upper low begins to trek more southeast toward the
Ohio River Valley. The surface instability axis is forecast to be
maximized across Southeast Oklahoma...where surface dewpoints in
the low 60s currently resided. Thus...as the cap continues to
erode into the early evening hours...thunderstorms are forecast to
continue to develop along the frontal boundary mainly across
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas with the potential to
become strong to severe. 40-50KT of deep layer shear combined
with steep mid level lapse rates will allow for the potential for
large hail and also damaging winds to be the main threats with
this activity. 0-1km shear values continue to look fairly weak
which should limit over all tornado potentials...though the threat
is not zero. The greater severe potential looks to be generally
along and east of a line from near Antlers to near Fort Smith
where the surface instability max was located.

Current indications are that by mid evening...03z...the cap
should begin strengthening over the region as the cold front is
forecast to be nearly exiting the CWA to the south and east. The
result is the greater thunderstorm potential should shift south
and east of the CWA with any remaining thunderstorms exiting the
CWA by 06z. Between the 03-06z range...a decreasing strong/severe
potential will remain possible though much more limited than
earlier in the evening.

Behind the cold front...drier air and northerly winds will spread
southward over the region tonight as well as cloud cover
associated with the backside of the upper low. These conditions
will help to keep temperatures from bottoming out with lows in the
40s forecast for most locations over the CWA. During the day
Monday...this cloud cover looks to remain over mainly Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until another quick moving
shortwave within upper level northwesterly flow pushes through the
region Monday night/Tuesday. Behind this shortwave...a ridge of
high pressure is progged to push through the Plains with a return
of southerly winds and a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday and become gusty Thursday
ahead of the next forecast low pressure looking to move into the
region. Gusts 25-35 mph and temps back in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will help to increase fire weather dangers for the CWA before
moisture returns with the approaching low pressure system Friday.
Latest extended model solutions differ on the timing of this next
system and its associated cold front. Thus...for this
forecast...have continued with a blended approach with shower and
thunderstorm chances becoming possible Thursday and increasing
Friday into Saturday as the system moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  60  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   48  64  42  65 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  65  39  66 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   44  59  36  63 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   44  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   46  55  37  57 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   46  61  40  64 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   45  56  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
F10   46  61  40  65 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   50  68  44  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
439 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of a line from Rogers to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are developing along a slow-
moving cold front extending from near Rogers southwestward to near
McAlester. Additional development is expected through the evening
hours before the front finally pushes east of the area by late
evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms, as instability and wind shear will support
isolated supercell structures.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Mild and dry weather will prevail for early in the upcoming week
with increasing winds and fire weather concerns by Wednesday,
especially across eastern Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances return
for late week as low level moisture increases and a stronger storm
system approaches the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

ARZ011-242345-
Madison AR-
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southeast of
Japton, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Japton...                         Aurora...
Witter...                         Boston...
Weathers...                       Red Star...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3596 9347 3595 9347 3595 9349 3593 9349
      3592 9351 3588 9351 3588 9352 3583 9353
      3582 9352 3581 9352 3590 9384 3600 9380
      3601 9345 3597 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 276DEG 34KT 3594 9375

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ075-076-242345-
Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
613 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LATIMER AND WEST CENTRAL
LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles east of Wilburton to 4 miles southeast of
Damon. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Red Oak...
Bengal...                         Panola...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3475 9532 3500 9524 3506 9499 3506 9493
      3507 9493 3508 9490 3477 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 256DEG 27KT 3494 9522 3480 9527

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             2 W WILBURTON           34.92N 95.34W
03/24/2019  E0.88 INCH       LATIMER            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 W SPIRO               35.24N 94.64W
03/24/2019  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             8 E BRENTWOOD           35.86N 93.96W
03/24/2019  E1.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

            PHOTO RECEIVED VIA TWITTER THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA
            ACCOUNT. LOCATION IS THE HAZEL VALLEY COMMUNITY.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

OKZ049-250000-
Pushmataha OK-
626 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Cloudy, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cloudy...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3428 9535 3447 9509 3445 9505 3425 9505
      3424 9515 3416 9515 3416 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 237DEG 36KT 3425 9522