River Flood Advisory 45, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The flash flood watch will be extended through early evening
given the ongoing convection and saturated soil conditions. Will
go ahead and cancel the northern tier of counties given storms
should remain more isolated. Locally 4 to 5 inches of rainfall
have occurred in some areas. Thunderstorm activity will likely
begin to dissipate by early evening with loss of heating.

A few widely scattered storms will remain possible through the
day Wednesday, however the better precip chances will be along
approaching frontal boundary Wednesday evening. Moderate
instability/shear along and south of front will support at least
a limited severe threat through evening hours with hail/damaging
winds the primary threat, although a few isolated supercells can
not be ruled out initially. In addition to the severe threat,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible across far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as PWATs approach 2 inches near
boundary.

At least low thunderstorm chances will continue for the remainder
of the work week into the early part of the weekend.  Upper
low currently over northern Baja will become sheared/lift NE into
the central Plains Friday into Saturday. GFS a little more
aggressive with pushing cold front into northeast Oklahoma during
this time with more widespread precipitation. ECMWF keeps front
further north over Kansas, including the better chances for
storms. For now, went with a blend of the two solutions concerning
POPS Friday night into Saturday.

Large upper high will build over the south-central/southeast
CONUS through the early to middle part of next week. The warm/humid
conditions will likely persist with temperatures remaining 5
to 10 degree above normal for this time of year.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  69  86 /  20  30  60  30
FSM   72  88  71  87 /  30  40  40  30
MLC   71  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
BVO   69  88  67  83 /  20  30  70  30
FYV   69  83  67  82 /  30  40  60  30
BYV   69  86  68  83 /  30  50  70  30
MKO   70  87  69  86 /  30  30  50  30
MIO   70  85  67  82 /  30  40  70  30
F10   70  91  68  88 /  20  20  40  20
HHW   71  88  70  89 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-065-066-
     068>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
The heaviest showers and thunderstorms have pushed south and east
of Tulsa and extend from northwest Arkansas into east central
Oklahoma. At least 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in some areas
and flash flooding is ongoing. Scattered showers and storms may
continue developing, mainly over southeast Oklahoma. Areas in
western Arkansas will continue to see moderate to heavy rain
through the rest of the afternoon. Please continue to heed any
road closures and never drive into areas where water covers the
road. Roads have been damaged or washed out completely in some
areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will persist across the region through
much of this week. Additional storms will be likely Wednesday
night for mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These
may pose a limited isolated severe weather threat. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease over the weekend with dry weather currently
expected for early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
09/24/2019                   WASHINGTON         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO WATER RESCUES PERFORMED FROM THE TRAIL SYSTEM IN
            FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

BLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E HIGHFILL            36.26N 94.32W
09/24/2019                   BENTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 264 AND HAYDEN FLOODED. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS IN
            THE AREA FLOODED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

BLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WHITE OAK               36.62N 95.26W
09/24/2019                   CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEK OVERFLOWED ACROSS HIGHWAY 23 AND WIRE RD.

&&

BLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
140 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N WATTS               36.12N 94.57W
09/24/2019                   ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT SOUTHBOUND LANE OF
            HIGHWAY 59 JUST NORTH OF WATTS IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

SJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
351 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

OKZ075-076-242130-
Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
351 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LATIMER AND WEST CENTRAL
LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Damon, moving
east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Red Oak...
Talimena State Park...            Damon...
Bengal...                         Panola...

LAT...LON 3472 9531 3489 9538 3504 9500 3478 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 250DEG 18KT 3484 9526