Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Tulsa, OK

547 
WGUS74 KTSA 241425
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
925 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

OKC105-131-241530-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0104.000000T0000Z-190924T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rogers OK-Nowata OK-
925 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN ROGERS AND SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES...

At 923 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated the heavy rainfall has 
shifted east of the region. 5 to 6 inches of rain have already 
fallen and excessive runoff will likely continue. 

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Nowata...                         Chelsea...
Oologah...                        Talala...
New Alluwe...                     Watova...
Bushyhead...                      

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9543 3660 9536 3654 9533 3651 9533
      3651 9543 3648 9544 3639 9580 3640 9579
      3642 9579 3642 9580 3667 9581 3669 9543

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Main aviation concern today is the ongoing thunderstorms and the
potential for periods of IFR conditions within the stronger
storms. Expect the worst conditions to occur this morning, with
improvement at all terminals during the afternoon. Given the rain
that has occurred already this morning with more on the way, have
included TEMPO groups at BVO/RVS/FYV tomorrow morning for IFR
visibilities, although persistent high clouds could be a limiting
factor in the overall fog potential.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain/flash flood potential in the near term is the main
forecast concern this morning.

Warm advection regime at the tail end of a retreating frontal zone
will lead to widespread convection this morning. PWATs are running
high along this zone, on the order of 2 to 2.25 inches. This is
some 220% of normal for this region per OUN 00Z sounding. Thus,
any slow moving or training showers and storms could potentially
drop excessive amounts of rainfall in localized areas, as short
term CAM guidance continues to indicate. Thus, there is a threat
for dangerous flash flooding this morning into the early
afternoon. Previous shift took the lead and issued a flash flood
watch for a good chunk of the forecast area and this will be
maintained. Guidance suggests that the activity will wane late in
the afternoon and into the evening.

A potent upper jet sliding across the northern tier of states will
force another cold front down into the region by tomorrow or
tomorrow night. A preceding outflow boundary from storms tonight
along said front could push into our area Wednesday morning or
midday, and could focus a few afternoon storms across the north
with marginal severe weather potential. Another potential locally
heavy rain event could set up across NE OK/NW AR Wednesday night
into the Thursday in the warm advection regime along/north of the
frontal zone, much like what is occurring this morning.

Quieter weather is expected Thursday and Friday ahead of another
front. Went above blended guidance for highs on Friday with veered
low lvl flow and the 850mb thermal ridge nosing east across
KS/OK/TX.

As for the late week front, there is some difference of opinion as
to how much impact this will have on our region. There is now
suggestion that this boundary will stall to our north and low to
moderate rain/storm chances would be confined close to the KS
border. Saw no reason to deviate from the blended guidance at this
point. I also went slightly above blended guidance high temps for
Saturday with the possibility of boundary stalling north of here.

Ridging aloft is expected to build over the southeast and south
central CONUS early next week, suggesting dry weather and above
normal temps will prevail.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-
     060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-
     010-011-019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....22
AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-250945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
442 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, especially
in areas along and north of Interstate 40. Additional
thunderstorms to the southwest will also move into the area later
this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is already occurring with
some of these storms, and this potential will continue through the
morning and into the early afternoon. Areas that see repeated
rounds of heavy rain could see flash flooding develop.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will persist across the region through
much of this week. Additional storms will be likely Wednesday
night for mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These
may pose a limited isolated severe weather threat. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease over the weekend with dry weather currently
expected for early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.