Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Tulsa, OK

812 
WGUS74 KTSA 031623
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

OKC113-147-031632-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190703T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Osage OK-Washington OK-
1123 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The widespread heavy rain has ended. Scattered showers and storms 
remain possible this afternoon with locally heavy downpours 
possible. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3683 9581 3655 9581 3660 9634 3683 9638

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Main aviation concerns this morning revolve around the ongoing
thunderstorm activity across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
impacts at mainly the BVO terminal. Satellite and radar trends
indicate that this area of thunderstorms is on the downswing,
with the southern edge gradually lifting more northward. Expect
that the likelihood of having additional TSRA on station this
morning at BVO is decreasing, and as such, plan to just carry a
VCTS mention for the first couple of hours with no mention of
decreased visibility or ceiling. This northward lift should keep
it out of TUL and RVS as well. The chance of additional
development this afternoon, especially at the NW AR terminals is
nonzero but is currently below mentionable levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across a small part of
northeast Oklahoma early this morning, and some of this activity
may linger past sunrise, although the currently observed weakening
trend should continue. Once this activity dissipates, afternoon
convective coverage today looks to be lower than it has been the
past few days.

Near daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for at
least the next week. Thursday may see higher chances over mainly
the terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
and higher chances may also develop over the weekend across
mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak frontal
boundary tries to sag south into the area. Convective coverage
will likely lessen early next week as an upper ridge builds more
strongly over the area. This will also lead to increasing heat,
and some places may see afternoon heat index values climb to near
105 by early next week.

Overall, only minor changes were made to the National Blend of
Models forecast.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-040930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, generally to the north of Interstate 44 and
along and west of Highway 75. This activity will continue through
much of the morning, with additional development possible to the
east of the current thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be the main concern with these
thunderstorms. The areal coverage should decrease by the
afternoon, although isolated thunderstorm development will remain
possible into early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue into early next week as a
series of disturbances move through the area. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible through this time. The upper level
ridge will build across the region next week, leading to increased
potential for heat and humidity impacts. Triple digit heat index
values are expected across much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas beginning Sunday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.