Tornado Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

678 
WWUS53 KTOP 212204
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
504 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC027-041-061-161-212230-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190521T2230Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Clay-
504 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...
        
At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles south of Milford Lake, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Milford Lake around 510 PM CDT.
  Milford around 515 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 292 and 294.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9689 3903 9707 3927 9697 3913 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 207DEG 29KT 3908 9692 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Skow

682 
WWUS53 KTOP 212206
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
506 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC027-041-061-161-212230-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190521T2230Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Clay-
506 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...
    
At 506 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Milford Lake,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Milford Lake around 510 PM CDT.
  Milford around 515 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 292 and 294.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9689 3903 9707 3927 9697 3913 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 211DEG 28KT 3909 9691 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Skow

575 
WWUS53 KTOP 212215
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
515 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSC027-041-212225-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190521T2230Z/
Dickinson-Clay-
515 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3916 9672 3908 9687 3911 9696 3927 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 211DEG 28KT 3915 9686 

$$

KSC061-161-212230-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190521T2230Z/
Geary-Riley-
515 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN GEARY AND SOUTHWESTERN RILEY COUNTIES...
    
At 515 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Milford Lake,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Geary and southwestern Riley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9672 3908 9687 3911 9696 3927 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 211DEG 28KT 3915 9686 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This afternoon the nearly vertically-stacked closed mid-level low
and surface low were quickly lifting northward into western KS, with
the associated surface warm front gradually lifting northward toward
the CWA. Despite the widespread morning precipitation diminishing by
late morning, there has been very little in the way of breaks in the
cloud cover this afternoon, thus limiting the rise in temperatures
as readings are generally in the 50s with low 60s starting to extend
into central and east central KS.  However, some better clearing in
the cloud cover was noted into central KS, and this break in the
cloud cover was enough to support some increased instability to get
scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the warm front. With the
northward lift of the warm front, dewpoints into the 60s were also
gradually lifting into central to east central KS. Model guidance
continues to show steepening low-level and mid-level lapse rates
late this afternoon into this evening, supporting increased
instability ahead of the warm front.  This increasing instability
combined with very strong deep layer shear should support scattered
thunderstorm development where the more favorable cloud cover
scattering has occurred.  Some strong to severe storms are possible,
with large hail being the primary hazard.  However, with favorable
SRH in place, also cannot rule out the potential for a few tornadoes
with this scattered thunderstorm activity. There is still some
uncertainty in the coverage of these thunderstorms into this
evening, but, in general, the best potential looks to be stretched
across central to north central and northeast KS.  As the surface
low and associated warm front quickly lift to the north,
thunderstorms should exit to the north by mid to late evening with
diminishing cloud cover expected overnight.  As a result, low
temperatures tonight look to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.

A very brief period of dry weather is expected through much of the
day Wednesday before the next surface warm front starts lifting
northward toward the area.  Scattered showers and storms look to
develop along and north of this lifting warm front, with models
showing the northern extent of this precipitation possibly extending
into east central KS by mid/late Wednesday afternoon.  Decent
heating should occur through the day with southwesterly surface
winds aiding in afternoon temperatures reaching into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

On Wednesday, the upper-level low will continue to pivot towards the
High Plains as a positively-tilted trough enters the southwest US.
Higher surface pressure will overspread the area as a shortwave
ridge begins to move over the Central Plains. Models indicate that
there could be a weak boundary associated with the inverted surface
trough. On Wednesday night as the low-level jet increases,
convergence and moisture advection into this boundary could be a
focus for thunderstorm development. 0-6 km bulk shear is forecast to
be around 60 kts with modest instability. This would support
organized updrafts and the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. With the potential for additional rainfall starting Wednesday
evening, a new flash flood watch may be needed into Thursday.

For Thursday and Thursday night, the aforementioned upper low
will traverse the Rockies and into the High Plains region. In
response, lee troughing will help transport warm, moist air into
the region. With increasing instability and deep layer shear on
the order of 55 kts, there could be the potential for organized
supercell thunderstorms. Better environmental forcing will be west
of the forecast area, so it appears that storms will initiate in
western KS and move into the forecast area during the afternoon
and evening. Forecast hodographs across north-central KS support
the risk for tornadoes.

Beyond Thursday night, models show continuous southwest flow aloft
for the remainder of the period. With this continuing pattern and
the potential for lingering boundaries, continuous showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the end of the period. With soils
already wet from previous rain, flooding and flash flooding will be
possible with any prolonged period of precipitation. High
temperatures throughout the period should stay around normal with
highs near 80 and low temperatures in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MVFR ceilings will continue for TOP and FOE, and IFR ceilings for
MHK as precipitation continues through the area. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and into the
evening. Confidence in thunderstorm intensity and coverage is
uncertain at this time. Strong surface winds will veer through the
period and continue through the evening and morning hours for all
sites. LLWS is possible at TOP and FOE as the low-level jet
increases this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Bunker/Hennecke
AVIATION...Bunker/Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
405 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222115-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
405 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate flooding across
the area, with several rivers rising into or above flood stage.
Flash flooding is also possible for locations receiving locally
heavy rainfall over saturated ground, and a flash flood watch
remains in effect through this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of central,
north central, and northeast Kansas with some strong to severe
storms possible. Large hail is the primary hazard, with some
damaging winds and a few tornadoes also possible. These
thunderstorms should exit to the north and diminish by mid to
late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday evening thunderstorms may bring another chance for
severe weather, with another threat for severe storms Thursday
into Thursday night.

River flooding is expected to continue through much of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of north central
to central Kansas tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
05/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
420 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ009-021-022-036-212200-
Geary-Clay-Riley-Washington-
420 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY...NORTHWESTERN
RILEY...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Agenda to 4 miles southwest of
Wakefield. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clay Center, Washington, Wakefield, Clifton, Milford, Linn,
Greenleaf, Morganville, Morrowville, Green, Palmer, Vining,
Hollenberg, Milford Lake and Idana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 9698 3914 9686 3913 9721 3973 9735
      4000 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 209DEG 30KT 3973 9728 3919 9709

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
436 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             1 NW ENTERPRISE         38.92N 97.13W
05/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
442 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE ENTERPRISE        38.86N 97.09W
05/21/2019                   DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
            ENTERPRISE AND WAS LOOKING AT THE TORNADO.
            IT WAS MAKING BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS AND BECOMING
            MORE RAIN WRAPPED.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TORNADO          5 S CHAPMAN             38.90N 97.02W
05/21/2019                   DICKINSON          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR N 2100 AVE AND
            RAIN RD, MOVING NORTHEAST. SIGHTING OF SOME
            DEBRIS GETTING KICKED UP. TYPE OF DEBRIS
            UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TORNADO          2 SSW CHAPMAN           38.95N 97.04W
05/21/2019                   DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO NEAR RAIN RD AND 2400 AVE. TREE
            DEBRIS NOTED.

&&

ACH