Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This afternoon the nearly vertically-stacked closed mid-level low
and surface low were quickly lifting northward into western KS, with
the associated surface warm front gradually lifting northward toward
the CWA. Despite the widespread morning precipitation diminishing by
late morning, there has been very little in the way of breaks in the
cloud cover this afternoon, thus limiting the rise in temperatures
as readings are generally in the 50s with low 60s starting to extend
into central and east central KS.  However, some better clearing in
the cloud cover was noted into central KS, and this break in the
cloud cover was enough to support some increased instability to get
scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the warm front. With the
northward lift of the warm front, dewpoints into the 60s were also
gradually lifting into central to east central KS. Model guidance
continues to show steepening low-level and mid-level lapse rates
late this afternoon into this evening, supporting increased
instability ahead of the warm front.  This increasing instability
combined with very strong deep layer shear should support scattered
thunderstorm development where the more favorable cloud cover
scattering has occurred.  Some strong to severe storms are possible,
with large hail being the primary hazard.  However, with favorable
SRH in place, also cannot rule out the potential for a few tornadoes
with this scattered thunderstorm activity. There is still some
uncertainty in the coverage of these thunderstorms into this
evening, but, in general, the best potential looks to be stretched
across central to north central and northeast KS.  As the surface
low and associated warm front quickly lift to the north,
thunderstorms should exit to the north by mid to late evening with
diminishing cloud cover expected overnight.  As a result, low
temperatures tonight look to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s.

A very brief period of dry weather is expected through much of the
day Wednesday before the next surface warm front starts lifting
northward toward the area.  Scattered showers and storms look to
develop along and north of this lifting warm front, with models
showing the northern extent of this precipitation possibly extending
into east central KS by mid/late Wednesday afternoon.  Decent
heating should occur through the day with southwesterly surface
winds aiding in afternoon temperatures reaching into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

On Wednesday, the upper-level low will continue to pivot towards the
High Plains as a positively-tilted trough enters the southwest US.
Higher surface pressure will overspread the area as a shortwave
ridge begins to move over the Central Plains. Models indicate that
there could be a weak boundary associated with the inverted surface
trough. On Wednesday night as the low-level jet increases,
convergence and moisture advection into this boundary could be a
focus for thunderstorm development. 0-6 km bulk shear is forecast to
be around 60 kts with modest instability. This would support
organized updrafts and the potential for large hail and damaging
winds. With the potential for additional rainfall starting Wednesday
evening, a new flash flood watch may be needed into Thursday.

For Thursday and Thursday night, the aforementioned upper low
will traverse the Rockies and into the High Plains region. In
response, lee troughing will help transport warm, moist air into
the region. With increasing instability and deep layer shear on
the order of 55 kts, there could be the potential for organized
supercell thunderstorms. Better environmental forcing will be west
of the forecast area, so it appears that storms will initiate in
western KS and move into the forecast area during the afternoon
and evening. Forecast hodographs across north-central KS support
the risk for tornadoes.

Beyond Thursday night, models show continuous southwest flow aloft
for the remainder of the period. With this continuing pattern and
the potential for lingering boundaries, continuous showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the end of the period. With soils
already wet from previous rain, flooding and flash flooding will be
possible with any prolonged period of precipitation. High
temperatures throughout the period should stay around normal with
highs near 80 and low temperatures in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MVFR ceilings will continue for TOP and FOE, and IFR ceilings for
MHK as precipitation continues through the area. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and into the
evening. Confidence in thunderstorm intensity and coverage is
uncertain at this time. Strong surface winds will veer through the
period and continue through the evening and morning hours for all
sites. LLWS is possible at TOP and FOE as the low-level jet
increases this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Bunker/Hennecke
AVIATION...Bunker/Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
405 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222115-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
405 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate flooding across
the area, with several rivers rising into or above flood stage.
Flash flooding is also possible for locations receiving locally
heavy rainfall over saturated ground, and a flash flood watch
remains in effect through this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of central,
north central, and northeast Kansas with some strong to severe
storms possible. Large hail is the primary hazard, with some
damaging winds and a few tornadoes also possible. These
thunderstorms should exit to the north and diminish by mid to
late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday evening thunderstorms may bring another chance for
severe weather, with another threat for severe storms Thursday
into Thursday night.

River flooding is expected to continue through much of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of north central
to central Kansas tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             6 NNE CHAPMAN           39.05N 96.98W
05/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COULDNT SEE THE TORNADO BUT HAD QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TORNADO          6 WNW JUNCTION CITY     39.06N 96.94W
05/21/2019                   GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONFIRMED TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF MILDFORD
            LAKE.

&&

ACH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TORNADO          6 NE CHAPMAN            39.03N 96.94W
05/21/2019                   GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

            VIDEO ON SOCIAL MEDIA CONFIRMING TORNADO
            TOUCHDOWN.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OTTAWA            38.60N 95.28W
05/21/2019  M5.70 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

BUNKER