Tornado Warning 27, NWS Topeka, KS

025 
WWUS53 KTOP 290013
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
713 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSC157-201-290030-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-190529T0030Z/
Republic-Washington-
713 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
    
At 712 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cuba, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Haddam around 725 PM CDT.
  Morrowville around 730 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9707 3979 9715 3972 9747 3992 9758
      4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 244DEG 30KT 3985 9740 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

Blair

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A complicated setup this afternoon with clouds and elevated storms
this morning. An old outflow boundary has set up across the area
from near Minneapolis to south of Junction City to near Mayetta.
South of this boundary exits a very moist and unstable airmass.
The 18Z RAOB from TOP shows very good deep layer of 60KT from
0-6KM. Effective SRH was around 140 m2/s2. So storms south of the
boundary will very likely become supercellular. Clearing out
across central and south central KS where surface temps have
warmed into the lower 80s is expected to be the region where new
storms develop in the coming hours. There is a risk for tornadoes
with storms that are rooted in the boundary layer and remain
discrete. Some of the convective allowing models (CAMs) show
discrete storms scattered over the forecast area by 21Z. So a
tornado watch has been issued for this area.

Much of the model guidance suggests this activity will move east
of the forecast area after 7 PM. Although an upper low is progged
to remain over the central plains so some isolated showers and
storms could linger into the late evening. Lows tonight should be
cooler ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s with some weak
cold air advection pushing into north central KS.

The upper low is progged to remain over the central plains on
Wednesday with the Pacific front just to the south east of the
forecast area. As a shortwave lifts over the front, additional
showers and storms could move into parts of east central KS. So
have kept some POPs through the evening. Highs Wednesday are not
expected to get out of the 70s with northwest winds bringing some
cooler air into the state. Lows Wednesday night are expected to
fall into the 50s area wide with some clearing and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A weak surface ridge is progged to remain over the central plains
for Thursday and Friday. There are some difference in the models
in how they handle the upper energy shearing out. The NAM remains
more defined with the upper low and wants to generate some precip
in the heat of the day Thursday, But the GFS and ECMWF are much
more sheared out with the upper energy. So there might be some
precip, but with much less instability to work with storms do not
look to concerning.

For Saturday through Monday, mid level ridging is expected to
amplify over the southern and central plains. There is some
potential for weak disturbances to move over the top of this ridge
and force some precip. So have chance POPs scattered throughout
the forecast. The warm and humid temperatures are progged to move
back into the area by this time. So high are expected to be in the
80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

An old outflow boundary is expected to gradually lift north
allowing CIGS to improve early this afternoon. TS are likely to
move through and have a TEMPO for the best window of opportunity.
Will amend the forecast as timing the storms become more
apparent. Storms are expected to move east of the terminals by the
early evening. There may be some stratus move in late tonight.
Confidence is marginal but included a tempo for MVFR CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Kansas
around 4 PM and move across east central and parts or northeast
Kansas through 7 PM. In addition to large hail and torrential
rainfall, the storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for a few isolated storms to develop
across far east central Kansas Wednesday afternoon into early
evening. If any storms are able to develop, they may be strong to
severe.

Flooding on area rivers is likely to persist through the latter
part of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be activated this afternoon.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
555 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ026-039-040-282330-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Douglas-
555 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...EAST
CENTRAL SHAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grantville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Topeka, Oskaloosa, Tecumseh, Perry, McLouth, Ozawkie,
Lecompton, Winchester, Williamstown, Perry Lake and Grantville.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 183 and 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9519 3911 9519 3894 9550 3907 9566
      3937 9531 3926 9518 3913 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 228DEG 28KT 3907 9550

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
558 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ012-282330-
Brown-
558 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robinson, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3966 9534 3976 9558 4000 9536 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 219DEG 29KT 3981 9537

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          S LAWRENCE              38.87N 95.36W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTING DAMAGE ON THE SOUTH
            SIDE OF LAWRENCE ALONG HIGHWAY 59. MAJOR
            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND MULTIPLE VEHICLES
            OVERTURNED VIA LAWRENCE POLICE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          2 NNE PLEASANT GROVE    38.89N 95.25W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS OF SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED
            NEAR HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN PLEASANT GROVE AND
            SOUTH LAWRENCE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 W BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.65W
05/28/2019  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP