Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A complicated setup this afternoon with clouds and elevated storms
this morning. An old outflow boundary has set up across the area
from near Minneapolis to south of Junction City to near Mayetta.
South of this boundary exits a very moist and unstable airmass.
The 18Z RAOB from TOP shows very good deep layer of 60KT from
0-6KM. Effective SRH was around 140 m2/s2. So storms south of the
boundary will very likely become supercellular. Clearing out
across central and south central KS where surface temps have
warmed into the lower 80s is expected to be the region where new
storms develop in the coming hours. There is a risk for tornadoes
with storms that are rooted in the boundary layer and remain
discrete. Some of the convective allowing models (CAMs) show
discrete storms scattered over the forecast area by 21Z. So a
tornado watch has been issued for this area.

Much of the model guidance suggests this activity will move east
of the forecast area after 7 PM. Although an upper low is progged
to remain over the central plains so some isolated showers and
storms could linger into the late evening. Lows tonight should be
cooler ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s with some weak
cold air advection pushing into north central KS.

The upper low is progged to remain over the central plains on
Wednesday with the Pacific front just to the south east of the
forecast area. As a shortwave lifts over the front, additional
showers and storms could move into parts of east central KS. So
have kept some POPs through the evening. Highs Wednesday are not
expected to get out of the 70s with northwest winds bringing some
cooler air into the state. Lows Wednesday night are expected to
fall into the 50s area wide with some clearing and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A weak surface ridge is progged to remain over the central plains
for Thursday and Friday. There are some difference in the models
in how they handle the upper energy shearing out. The NAM remains
more defined with the upper low and wants to generate some precip
in the heat of the day Thursday, But the GFS and ECMWF are much
more sheared out with the upper energy. So there might be some
precip, but with much less instability to work with storms do not
look to concerning.

For Saturday through Monday, mid level ridging is expected to
amplify over the southern and central plains. There is some
potential for weak disturbances to move over the top of this ridge
and force some precip. So have chance POPs scattered throughout
the forecast. The warm and humid temperatures are progged to move
back into the area by this time. So high are expected to be in the
80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

An old outflow boundary is expected to gradually lift north
allowing CIGS to improve early this afternoon. TS are likely to
move through and have a TEMPO for the best window of opportunity.
Will amend the forecast as timing the storms become more
apparent. Storms are expected to move east of the terminals by the
early evening. There may be some stratus move in late tonight.
Confidence is marginal but included a tempo for MVFR CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Kansas
around 4 PM and move across east central and parts or northeast
Kansas through 7 PM. In addition to large hail and torrential
rainfall, the storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for a few isolated storms to develop
across far east central Kansas Wednesday afternoon into early
evening. If any storms are able to develop, they may be strong to
severe.

Flooding on area rivers is likely to persist through the latter
part of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be activated this afternoon.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             1 ENE RESERVE           39.98N 95.55W
05/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE RESERVE           39.97N 95.54W
05/28/2019  M2.25 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SO FAR SINCE MIDNIGHT. STILL RAINING.

&&

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
407 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ038-039-054-055-282130-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-Osage-
407 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Harveyville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Carbondale, Rossville, Eskridge, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn,
Burlingame, Maple Hill, Harveyville, Allen, Admire, Willard, Pauline,
Keene and Berryton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 339 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 145 and 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3859 9610 3875 9630 3922 9598 3896 9550
      3894 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 214DEG 45KT 3882 9603

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
410 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ054-055-058-282145-
Coffey-Lyon-Osage-
410 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Neosho Rapids to near Olpe.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Osage City, Lyndon, Lebo, Olpe, Hartford, Neosho Rapids,
Reading, Olivet and Melvern Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 153.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 118 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3828 9636 3874 9602 3874 9595
      3862 9554 3817 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 212DEG 38KT 3844 9601 3829 9620

Baerg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             3 S WILLARD             39.05N 95.95W
05/28/2019  E2.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             4 SSW SILVER LAKE       39.05N 95.87W
05/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CP