Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Topeka, KS

514 
WWUS53 KTOP 062344
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSC111-139-197-070000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-190507T0000Z/
Wabaunsee-Osage-Lyon-
644 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...

At 643 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Osage City, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe storm will be near...
  Osage City and Reading around 650 PM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 near mile marker 140.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 138 and 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for east central
Kansas.

This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9620 3891 9603 3869 9555 3840 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 315DEG 29KT 3862 9594 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
357 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

The region enters an active weather pattern starting late this
afternoon through tonight with severe weather and heavy rainfall
the main threats.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery depicted a quasi-zonal flow
WSW flow pattern across the Central Plains early this afternoon
with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains and low-
amplitude ridging across the Southwest Plateau. A cutoff low
making landfall over the California coast will produce a gradual
amplification of this zonal flow pattern throughout the course of
the period, with a more pronounced ridging and SW flow over the
High Plains. At the surface, early morning convection pushed the
effective baroclinic zone to along and south of the I-70 corridor,
but increasing southerly return flow and theta-e advection noted
in GOES-E PWAT imagery, visible satellite data, and surface
observations, will aid in lifting this relatively shallow
convergence zone back northward-- though how far northward remains
somewhat in question. The 19Z surface analysis shows that the
boundary has moved little in the last couple of hours, lending
credence to a more southerly solution taking the boundary to
around or just south of the I-70 corridor during peak heating.

Elevated multi-cell clusters with embedded supercell structures
developed around midday in north-central Kansas and south-central
Nebraska along the nose of the 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE gradient and
have spread eastward along with this elevated instability/moisture
plume. Multiple reports of large hail have been received from
these storms This convection will aid in a southern reinforcement
and sharpening the boundary. This elevated convection should
persist for much of the afternoon and evening hours with
additional development further south and west closer to the nose
of the MLCAPE plume now located from Salina to Hays. The backing
of the low-level winds along the boundary has resulted in
effective helicity values rising to 200 to 400 m2/s2 and effective
shear values of 30-50 kts, and this environment should persist
and shift gradually east through the late afternoon and evening
hours.

Initially discrete supercells could develop within this corridor,
with a gradual upscale growth with merging cold pools later
tonight. With right-moving supercell motions paralleling the
boundary orientation, any storm that does ride this baroclinic
zone will have an increased risk for producing a tornado,
potentially on the longer-lived side. Additional convection
forming along the Front Range in response to an ejecting H500
shortwave will track eastward on the heels of this first round and
expend in coverage as it interacts with isentropic upglide over
the broad surface to H850 front. With PWATS of 1 to 1.5 inches and
increasing mid-level mixing ratios, the environment will be
primed for multiple rounds of training cells that could drop
several inches of rainfall during the late overnight hours. Have
increased QPF amounts along and south of the I-70 corridor to
account for this likelihood.

This convection may linger throughout the day on Tuesday, though
confidence decreases in its spatio-temporal characteristics. The
cold pools from this convection should usher the boundary
southward into southern Kansas, but more recent model runs are
hinting at the boundary lifting back northward towards the I-70
corridor as lee cyclogenesis intensifies on the Front Range
Tuesday afternoon. Should this latter solution transpire, we will
likely see a renewed severe weather threat along and south of I-70
tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Tuesday night into Wednesday will continue to see active weather
across the region, with quieter weather to end the week.

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
along and south of the warm front Tuesday afternoon and evening
with similar hazards to this afternoon. Additional moisture
transport along and up the front will provide another round of
heavy rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with one final
round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening as
the main lee cyclone ejects northeastward. Severe weather will
once again be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening with the
track of the low dictating the threat for tornadoes. The pattern
then cools and dries out for the end of the week as high pressure
builds southward, with the next chance of precipitation coming
over the weekend as as frontal boundary moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this
afternoon and evening with widespread coverage overnight. Some
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Expect
conditions to drop to IFR or lower in the heaviest rain, but
confidence in timing and location of storms was not high enough
to mention in the TAFs. Winds will generally be light and variable
with a boundary across the area, with stronger winds in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
Wednesday night for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
356 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
356 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight. A few of the storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds the main hazards. Tornadoes are also possible this
afternoon and evening along and south of Interstate 70.
Widespread heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding tonight as
soils remain saturated across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong to severe, Tuesday and continuing
through the middle of the week. Given the wet antecedent
conditions, the risk for flash flooding as well as flooding along
creeks and streams will continue through Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ022>024-038-062300-
Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Riley-Jackson-
530 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
WABAUNSEE...SOUTHERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, emergency management reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 4 miles southeast of Westmoreland to 4
miles southeast of Manhattan. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, Westmoreland, St. Marys, St. George, McFarland,
Paxico, Belvue, Emmett and Louisville.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 326 and 336.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3938 9589 3922 9601 3922 9604 3919 9603
      3902 9616 3916 9665 3940 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 285DEG 31KT 3936 9635 3914 9653

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             GRANDVIEW PLAZA         39.03N 96.79W
05/06/2019  E0.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 ESE GRANDVIEW PLAZA   38.99N 96.66W
05/06/2019  E70 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             7 ESE GRANDVIEW PLAZA   38.99N 96.66W
05/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             2 WSW JUNCTION CITY     39.02N 96.86W
05/06/2019  E1.50 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             6 S ABILENE             38.83N 97.21W
05/06/2019  E1.50 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL RANGING FROM QUARTER-SIZE TO PING PONG
            BALL SIZE.

&&

ACH