Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1231 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Early this morning water vapor loop showed a shortwave moving into
Minnesota trailing into South Dakota. Upper low remained over
southern California while profilers show a perturbation moving
across western Nebraska. Subsidence was occurring behind the
departing showers over central and eastern Kansas. The effective
frontal boundary at 07Z extended from northeast Iowa to near Hill
City and Goodland.

Broad nearly zonal flow continues across Kansas this morning with
little change in the pattern is expected through tonight with minor
PV anomalies expected to move eastward this afternoon through
tonight. Main concern for today and into tonight will be severe
weather chances and locally heavy rainfall. Atmosphere will
gradually recover this morning and into the early afternoon hours.
The frontal boundary is forecast to move southward into the forecast
area and by early afternoon looks to be oriented from northwest
Missouri into central Kansas. The front is forecast to become
stationary across east central Kansas tonight. Convection is
forecast to develop along the frontal boundary mainly in the later
afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show CAPE increasing to 2000-
3000 J/kg this afternoon. 0-6KM shear increases to 40 to 50 kts
along with steep lapse rates expected. Forecast hodographs show
ample helicity of 300 to 400 M2/S2 amid good turning in the 0-3km
layer supporting the potential for a few tornadoes. Initial
development will be supercells merging later in the evening forming
an mcs cluster that moves out into Missouri.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across most of the area as
precipitable water values increase to around 1.40 inches this
evening across northeast and east central Kansas. In addition the
850 theta-e ridge will extend across the same area and moisture
transport vectors increase through the evening and overnight hours.
Any slower moving storms north of the boundary will have the
potential to produce a quick inch of rainfall, while higher amounts
will be possible tonight south of the boundary where rainfall rates
of up to 2 inches per hour cannot be ruled out. Therefore will go
with a flash flood watch starting at 7 PM this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

The mid range forecast remains consistent with a wet period shaping
up to include flooding -- both flash flooding and river flooding.
Therefore, have decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch across the
forecast area from Monday night through Wednesday night.

Considering the rain and flood potential, model spread still
suggests a fairly wide range in the amounts of precipitation
possible across the area, but considering a large amount of rain
will be convectively enhanced the diverse spreads seem to make
sense.  What does seem like a consistent theme is that mean values
have increased from run-to-run.  This suggests overall higher
potential for soaking rains to cover the area over the next few
days.  Additionally, very high PW air advects into the area as the
overall pattern transitions to more meridional an thus becomes less
progressive with continued WAA and moisture advection into the
region.  A general widespread 2-3 inches are possible through
Wednesday night with up to 5-6 inches possible in some locations.

Tuesday, severe weather will still be possible across the area.
However, as weak mid level ridging over works the area, which may
limit coverage.  The synoptic warm boundary is expected to be
stretched across portions of south central KS into east central
areas.  Thus the focus for strong instability may remain southwest
of the area and into southern portions of the area.  This should
pose mainly a hail and wind threat across the area before storms
grow upscale with marginal shear being mostly boundary parallel.

Another potentially significant round of storms could come into the
Wednesday afternoon time frame.  The previous cut-off low over the
Desert Southwest should fill and fully transition to an open wave
and lift into the Central Plains during the day Wednesday.  Lee side
low pressure should deepen and resulting advection and cyclogenesis
should sharpen associated baroclinic boundaries.  With backing
surface winds, strong heating bolstering instability and increased
shear supportive of supercellular structures that looks to be
largely off boundary, there could be discrete supercells during the
afternoon and early evening hours.  Again, large hail, damaging
winds and the possibility of tornadoes can't be ruled out during
this time frame.  Additionally, all storms are expected to produce
heavy rain that could result in flash flooding.

Fortunately, the boundary finally advances southeast of the area for
the balance of the work week with surface ridging working into the
area with dry air in place.  However, by the weekend, another
northern stream trough and yet another cut-off low set up over the
Desert Southwest region.  Depending on how the northern stream
trough digs into the area, there could be more periods of showers
and storms into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this
afternoon and evening with widespread coverage overnight. Some
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Expect
conditions to drop to IFR or lower in the heaviest rain, but
confidence in timing and location of storms was not high enough
to mention in the TAFs. Winds will generally be light and variable
with a boundary across the area, with stronger winds in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
Wednesday night for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
401 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-070915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
401 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight. A few of the storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds the main hazards. Tornadoes are also possible this
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash
flooding tonight as soils remain saturated across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong to severe, Tuesday and continuing
through the middle of the week. Given the wet antecedent
conditions, the risk for flash flooding as well as flooding along
creeks and streams will continue through Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
200 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ008-062000-
Republic-
200 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Formoso, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Courtland, Cuba, Republic, Munden and Narka.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3983 9737 3968 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 241DEG 29KT 3977 9803

Hennecke

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
210 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ008-009-020-061945-
Republic-Cloud-Washington-
210 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 210 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Clyde, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clyde, Palmer and Agenda.

LAT...LON 3954 9751 3967 9760 3984 9717 3962 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 243DEG 33KT 3963 9748

Hennecke

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             4 ESE AGENDA            39.69N 97.35W
05/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ008-020-062045-
Republic-Cloud-
302 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN CLOUD
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ruskin to 5 miles north of Courtland to 4
miles south of Jewell. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Belleville, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland, Cuba, Norway,
Republic, Munden, Narka and Agenda.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3982 9737 3954 9746 3953 9793
      4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 266DEG 32KT 4018 9786 3986 9792 3961 9814

Hennecke