Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Topeka, KS

590 
WGUS63 KTOP 220811
FFATOP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220915-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-190822T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-
Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-
Anderson-
Including the cities of Clay Center, Manhattan, Wamego, 
St. Marys, Holton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, 
Grantville, Meriden, Nortonville, Minneapolis, Bennington, 
Abilene, Herington, Junction City, Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge,
Maple Hill, Alta Vista, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico, Topeka, 
Lawrence, Emporia, Osage City, Carbondale, Lyndon, Burlingame, 
Overbrook, Ottawa, Burlington, Lebo, and Garnett
311 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Kansas, east
central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas has
been cancelled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
for much of the area this morning, but their persistence and
intensity is no longer expected to be capable of leading to flash
flooding.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1154 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Two areas of convection were occurring near or in the cwa this
morning at 0730Z. Thunderstorms were occurring from Herington to
Emporia to near Osage City in area of 925 thermal advection and
surface to 925 mb convergence. Main arc of thunderstorms was
occurring across central and southeast Nebraska into northwest
Missouri. This was occurring north of the warm front near the
Nebraska border and in a area of deep moisture convergence and
within the theta-e axis. Latest mesoanalysis shows precipitable
water values approaching two inches across eastern Kansas and into
southern and central Nebraska early this morning. The best 925 mb
moisture transport was focused into east central Kansas where the
thunderstorms were producing rainfall rates of at least an inch an
hour. Expect rainfall to be maximized within the moisture/theta axis
as described above and where the moisture transport is maximized.

For today, the main concern will be the thunderstorms moving south
out of Nebraska and any additional development across east central
Kansas. Storms moving out of Nebraska will have the potential to
produce locally strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. CAMS have not
been handling the ongoing areas of convection very well and will
adjust precipitation chances based on short term tends as storm
scale and mesoscale processes dictate. Overall expect storms to fill
in across the area today with some dissipation expected late morning
with storms redeveloping along boundaries in the afternoon and
evening. Expect storms to focus initially across north central and
northeast Kansas north of the frontal boundary as the low level jet
increases this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will again be a
concern with theta-e axis expected to lay west to east north of I-70
this evening and then shifting into east central Kansas and Missouri
overnight as the low level jet veers to the west by 12Z Thursday.
Potential will also exist for some storms with damaging wind gusts.
Boundary location will dictate where the best potential for
convection will lie on Thursday. Clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures in the 80s for today bringing relief from yesterday's
heat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

A mid level wave is forecast to move across Kansas and align with
the area of frontogenesis across east central Kansas Thursday
evening. Precipitable water values will approach 1.5 to 2 inches
along and south of I-35 Thursday night. The warm frontal boundary is
forecast to be southwest the forecast area on Friday and remaining
west of the area until Sunday when warm advection develops ahead of
a mid level wave moving across the central Plains. A warm up is
expected Sunday and Monday with cooling temperatures next Tuesday
behind a cold front that looks to bisect the cwa. Model differences
preclude a high confidence forecast for the early part of next week
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

VFR conditions will persist however thunderstorms will develop
across the area after 21Z and persist at or around the TAF sites
through much of the night. For now will carry MVFR conds however
there could be periods of IFR conditions after 06Z tonight and
will include once confidence in timing improves.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
335 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning with
redevelopment across the area this afternoon and tonight. Some of
the storms may be strong to severe. The main hazards will be
damaging winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected Thursday. A few of the storms may be
severe across east central Kansas. Damaging wind and hail will be
the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
843 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW EMPORIA           38.42N 96.19W
08/21/2019  M2.50 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
845 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW EMPORIA           38.42N 96.19W
08/21/2019  M2.50 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
846 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE FAIRVIEW          39.83N 95.72W
08/21/2019  M2.21 INCH       BROWN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR RAIN TOTAL.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
853 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW EMPORIA            38.43N 96.22W
08/21/2019                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. FIRST REPORT OF 2 POWER
            POLES DOWN NEAR 24TH AND INDUSTRIAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
943 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW EMPORIA            38.43N 96.22W
08/21/2019  M2.28 INCH       LYON               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT - 24 HR RAIN TOTAL.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
120 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW EMPORIA            38.43N 96.21W
08/21/2019  M2.50 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0843 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW EMPORIA           38.42N 96.19W
08/21/2019  M2.50 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0729 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW EMPORIA            38.43N 96.22W
08/21/2019  M2.28 INCH       LYON               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT - 24 HR RAIN TOTAL.

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW EMPORIA            38.43N 96.22W
08/21/2019                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. FIRST REPORT OF 2 POWER
            POLES DOWN NEAR 24TH AND INDUSTRIAL.

0731 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE FAIRVIEW          39.83N 95.72W
08/21/2019  M2.21 INCH       BROWN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR RAIN TOTAL.

&&