Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Topeka, KS

742 
WGUS73 KTOP 211022
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
522 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSC013-131-211300-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-190821T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nemaha-Brown-
522 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms 
continue across the warned area. One to three inches of rain have 
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sabetha, Robinson, Morrill, Bern, Reserve and Hamlin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9536 3992 9550 3983 9585
      4000 9610 4000 9534

$$

892 
WGUS73 KTOP 211253
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
753 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSC013-131-211302-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-190821T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nemaha-Brown-
753 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN
BROWN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Light rain will continue intermittently 
through the morning hours, however flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9536 3992 9550 3983 9585
      4000 9610 4000 9534

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Two areas of convection were occurring near or in the cwa this
morning at 0730Z. Thunderstorms were occurring from Herington to
Emporia to near Osage City in area of 925 thermal advection and
surface to 925 mb convergence. Main arc of thunderstorms was
occurring across central and southeast Nebraska into northwest
Missouri. This was occurring north of the warm front near the
Nebraska border and in a area of deep moisture convergence and
within the theta-e axis. Latest mesoanalysis shows precipitable
water values approaching two inches across eastern Kansas and into
southern and central Nebraska early this morning. The best 925 mb
moisture transport was focused into east central Kansas where the
thunderstorms were producing rainfall rates of at least an inch an
hour. Expect rainfall to be maximized within the moisture/theta axis
as described above and where the moisture transport is maximized.

For today, the main concern will be the thunderstorms moving south
out of Nebraska and any additional development across east central
Kansas. Storms moving out of Nebraska will have the potential to
produce locally strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. CAMS have not
been handling the ongoing areas of convection very well and will
adjust precipitation chances based on short term tends as storm
scale and mesoscale processes dictate. Overall expect storms to fill
in across the area today with some dissipation expected late morning
with storms redeveloping along boundaries in the afternoon and
evening. Expect storms to focus initially across north central and
northeast Kansas north of the frontal boundary as the low level jet
increases this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will again be a
concern with theta-e axis expected to lay west to east north of I-70
this evening and then shifting into east central Kansas and Missouri
overnight as the low level jet veers to the west by 12Z Thursday.
Potential will also exist for some storms with damaging wind gusts.
Boundary location will dictate where the best potential for
convection will lie on Thursday. Clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures in the 80s for today bringing relief from yesterday's
heat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

A mid level wave is forecast to move across Kansas and align with
the area of frontogenesis across east central Kansas Thursday
evening. Precipitable water values will approach 1.5 to 2 inches
along and south of I-35 Thursday night. The warm frontal boundary is
forecast to be southwest the forecast area on Friday and remaining
west of the area until Sunday when warm advection develops ahead of
a mid level wave moving across the central Plains. A warm up is
expected Sunday and Monday with cooling temperatures next Tuesday
behind a cold front that looks to bisect the cwa. Model differences
preclude a high confidence forecast for the early part of next week
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Timing and placement of thunderstorm development overnight is a
little uncertain but confidence increases in chances near
terminals into tomorrow morning and afternoon. Have included
mention of VCSH at Topeka terminals after 12Z and VCTS at all
terminals from around 18/21Z. LLWS will be marginal tonight with
30 to 35 kt southwesterly winds around 2000 ft AGL. CIGS are
expected to decrease to near MVFR category by late in the TAF
period as thunderstorms become more likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
335 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning with
redevelopment across the area this afternoon and tonight. Some of
the storms may be strong to severe. The main hazards will be
damaging winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected Thursday. A few of the storms may be
severe across east central Kansas. Damaging wind and hail will be
the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
113 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ037-054-210645-
Lyon-Morris-
113 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORRIS AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wilsey to 6 miles south of Admire. Movement was
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Council Grove, Americus, White City, Allen, Admire, Wilsey,
Parkerville, Bushong, Dunlap, Council Grove Lake and Burdick.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 near mile marker 129, and between mile markers 136 and
138.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 129 and 150.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9635 3852 9635 3853 9689 3882 9678
      3876 9639 3874 9639 3874 9626 3869 9595
      3840 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 249DEG 10KT 3864 9669 3855 9608

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ010>012-210830-
Brown-Nemaha-Marshall-
242 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEMAHA...WEST CENTRAL
BROWN AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 241 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Bern to 3 miles northeast of
Oketo. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Sabetha, Seneca, Blue Rapids, Frankfort, Centralia,
Axtell, Fairview, Beattie, Bern, Summerfield, Vermillion, Oneida,
Oketo, Baileyville and Woodlawn.

LAT...LON 3980 9557 3965 9669 4000 9674 4000 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 333DEG 25KT 4006 9601 4000 9654