Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 14, 20194 counties in Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 14, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT for 4 counties in Montana. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 14, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT (21:45 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2019, 4:30 PM MDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS Great Falls, MT
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 14, 2:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2019-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 82 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2019-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -50 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
82 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-137 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 14, 2:59 PM MDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 2:59 PM MDT, 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue through early Friday
evening across North-central Montana. This activity will weaken
and move away to the east through Sunset. Isolated to scattered
showers and general thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures trend cooler for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of North-
central Montana. A few long-lived severe thunderstorms formed in
an environment containing moderate instability and favorable
shear. The storms have been tracking east-southeast along and just
behind an advancing surface front. Strong storms remain possible
along this frontal boundary where daytime heating has provided
elevated CAPE. Storms may become outflow dominant and merge into
more of a storm cluster as they move away to the east.

Storms clear out overnight. Another shortwave trough arrives on
northwesterly flow during the day on Saturday, producing another
round of showers and general thunderstorms. Temperatures trend
cooler on Saturday, nearing seasonal averages. Conditionspersist
on Sunday, although afternoon showers will be more favored over
southwest Montana.

The unsettled northwesterly flow continues into next week with
chances for showers continuing every afternoon. There exists a
wide range of solutions among the ensemble guidance, but generally
converging around a period of cooler and wetter weather late next
week. Solutions range from a slow moving, large cut-off low, to a
series of shortwave troughs rotating through a disturbed
northwesterly flow. Ranchers over our northeastern counties are
beginning to experience dry conditions, so rainfall will be
welcome it it comes together. There is also potential for this
system to produce snow levels down to around 6500 feet over the
Northern Rockies including Glacier National Park.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 600 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 (12Z/14 TAFs)

There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning
but in a few places but the more impactful activity is expected to
develop after 18Z. Most of this will be northeast of a Great Falls
to Lewistown line. Mostly VFR conditions are expected but showers
and storms could produce brief MVFR conditions at times. Showers and
storms are expected to diminish this evening. Northwesterly breezes
are also expected, mostly for the north-central terminals. rcg

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  51  73 /  40  50  20  10
CTB  48  70  46  73 /  30  50  30  20
HLN  51  78  52  78 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  46  77  47  76 /  30  20  20  30
WEY  38  71  39  70 /  40  30  40  50
DLN  45  76  48  74 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  50  75  49  76 /  20  20  20  10
LWT  47  69  47  69 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Judith
Basin...Fergus...

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:00 PM MDT, 45 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:01 PM MDT, 44 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:02 PM MDT, 43 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:35 PM MDT, 10 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:39 PM MDT, 6 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jun 14, 3:43 PM MDT, 2 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 10:40 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXGlacier35 min
Jun 14, 12:20 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLiberty25 min
Jun 14, 12:40 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLiberty35 min
Jun 14, 12:50 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLiberty25 min
Jun 14, 12:52 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXChouteau23 min
Jun 14, 2:00 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXHill30 min
Jun 14, 11:14 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXGlacier46 min
Jun 14, 12:08 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXGlacier37 min
Jun 14, 12:33 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXFergus57 min
Jun 14, 12:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXGlacier, Pondera46 min
Jun 14, 1:09 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBroadwater66 min
Jun 14, 1:17 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXChouteau58 min
Jun 14, 1:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXPondera, Teton46 min
Jun 14, 2:09 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXChouteau36 min
Jun 14, 2:12 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXChouteau, Pondera, Teton33 min
Jun 14, 2:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXChouteau32 min
Jun 14, 2:43 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade, Chouteau, Teton32 min
Jun 14, 2:48 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXChouteau27 min
Jun 14, 2:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXChouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin31 min
Jun 14, 3:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade, Chouteau32 min
Jun 14, 3:49 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXToole26 min
Jun 14, 4:18 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLiberty27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2019Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.