Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue through early Friday
evening across North-central Montana. This activity will weaken
and move away to the east through Sunset. Isolated to scattered
showers and general thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures trend cooler for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of North-
central Montana. A few long-lived severe thunderstorms formed in
an environment containing moderate instability and favorable
shear. The storms have been tracking east-southeast along and just
behind an advancing surface front. Strong storms remain possible
along this frontal boundary where daytime heating has provided
elevated CAPE. Storms may become outflow dominant and merge into
more of a storm cluster as they move away to the east.

Storms clear out overnight. Another shortwave trough arrives on
northwesterly flow during the day on Saturday, producing another
round of showers and general thunderstorms. Temperatures trend
cooler on Saturday, nearing seasonal averages. Conditionspersist
on Sunday, although afternoon showers will be more favored over
southwest Montana.

The unsettled northwesterly flow continues into next week with
chances for showers continuing every afternoon. There exists a
wide range of solutions among the ensemble guidance, but generally
converging around a period of cooler and wetter weather late next
week. Solutions range from a slow moving, large cut-off low, to a
series of shortwave troughs rotating through a disturbed
northwesterly flow. Ranchers over our northeastern counties are
beginning to experience dry conditions, so rainfall will be
welcome it it comes together. There is also potential for this
system to produce snow levels down to around 6500 feet over the
Northern Rockies including Glacier National Park.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 600 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019 (12Z/14 TAFs)

There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning
but in a few places but the more impactful activity is expected to
develop after 18Z. Most of this will be northeast of a Great Falls
to Lewistown line. Mostly VFR conditions are expected but showers
and storms could produce brief MVFR conditions at times. Showers and
storms are expected to diminish this evening. Northwesterly breezes
are also expected, mostly for the north-central terminals. rcg

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  71  51  73 /  40  50  20  10
CTB  48  70  46  73 /  30  50  30  20
HLN  51  78  52  78 /  10  30  20  30
BZN  46  77  47  76 /  30  20  20  30
WEY  38  71  39  70 /  40  30  40  50
DLN  45  76  48  74 /  10  10  10  20
HVR  50  75  49  76 /  20  20  20  10
LWT  47  69  47  69 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR Southern Rocky Mountain
Front...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Teton...Judith
Basin...Fergus...

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             5 SSE CONRAD            48.11N 111.89W
06/14/2019  E1.50 INCH       PONDERA            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF QUARTER- TO PING PONG BALL-SIZED
            HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES DEEP AT MILE MARKER 334
            ON INTERSTATE 15 IN THE WAKE OF THE SEVERE
            THUNDERSTORM.

&&

SAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
248 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

MTZ013-142115-
Chouteau-
248 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTY...

At 247 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Benton,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm. Brief heavy rainfall could also cause brief and
localized street and low land flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Benton, Geraldine and Shonkin.

This includes Highway 87 between mile markers 42 and 44.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4772 11080 4787 11065 4768 11013 4746 11036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 304DEG 26KT 4775 11064

Coulston

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
254 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             5 W BRADY               48.03N 111.94W
06/14/2019  M1.00 INCH       PONDERA            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL WEST OF BRADY. SEVERE
            CROP DAMAGE.

&&

PN

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