Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
428 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Strong southerly flow out ahead of the band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms has transported abundant moisture northward
overnight with dew points now in the mid to upper 60s across the
region. We've seen gusts to around 40 knots near the coast in the
southerly synoptic flow and wouldn't take much for the convection
to tap the 50 to 60 knot winds a few thousand feet off the surface
so an isolated severe wind gusts is possible in some of the
stronger storms early this morning. Could also see a quick spinup
leading to an isolated waterspout/tornado early this morning as
the band moves through. Cold front will exit the region by early
afternoon taking most of the convection with it as west to
northwest flow ushers in our next shot of cool dry air for Friday
and Saturday.

Over the weekend and into early next week broad mid/upper level
troughing will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves moving through it. Saturday night
into Monday shortwave energy will be moving across the Gulf of
Mexico and into Florida, but the timing, location, and strength of
the wave continues to vary highly between the models which leads
to a continued rather low confidence in the forecast during this
timeframe. Latest indications are that the best chance of
rain/showers will be across south Florida, but a slight shift in
location or strength of the shortwave could bring a much higher
rain chances to the entire region. For now have gone with a blend
of the guidance and indicated slight chance to chance PoPs from
around the Interstate 4 corridor southward Saturday night and
Sunday and then chance PoPs across pretty much the entire region
for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday the shortwave should be
off to the east of the area with weak surface high pressure
building in bringing a return to fair dry weather before the next
shortwave and associated cold front approaches from the northwest
during midweek bringing another chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected this morning as a
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moves across the
region this morning. VFR conditions should return from
northwest to southeast this afternoon and prevail through
tonight. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the convection will
diminish and shift to west northwest as the cold front
sweeps across the region today.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts to
gale force will shift to northwest and diminish later this morning
as the cold front crossed the waters. In the wake of the front
high pressure will build in north of the waters during Friday and
Saturday with winds and seas subsiding. An area of low pressure
may bring another round of showers into the central and southern
Gulf waters during Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air will move into the region in the wake of the cold front
and support a few hours of humidity values below 35 percent over
interior locations both Friday and Saturday afternoon. However,
low ERC values and lighter winds will preclude Red Flag
conditions.

Fog Potential...No significant fog is expected during the next
few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  46  60  43 / 100   0   0   0
FMY  72  52  65  46 /  80  10   0   0
GIF  71  44  62  42 / 100   0   0   0
SRQ  68  49  61  43 / 100   0   0   0
BKV  68  39  60  34 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  68  48  60  48 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-242145-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across west central
and southwest Florida this morning ahead of a cold front. A few
storms could be strong or severe and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rain, and frequent deadly
lightning. An isolated tornado is also possible.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor coastal flooding is possible this morning due to strong
south to southwest winds ahead of a cold front. Coastal residents
should be alert and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High surf will produce rip currents along area beaches today and
Friday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 25 to 30 knots this morning with a few gusts to
gale force will produce hazardous boating conditions. A line of
strong to severe thunderstorms will push across the central and
southern waters early this morning with wind gusts over 40 knots
possible with the stronger storms along with isolated
waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 AM EST THU JAN 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 W FORT DESOTO PARK    27.61N 82.76W
01/24/2019  M45.00 MPH       GMZ853             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE AT EGMONT CHANNEL REPORTED A WIND GUST
            OF 39 KNOTS.

0516 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ESE FORT DESOTO PARK  27.60N 82.65W
01/24/2019  M49.00 MPH       GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW SITE AT SKYWAY FISHING PIER REPORTED A WIND
            GUST OF 43 KNOTS.

&&

CLOSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
540 AM EST THU JAN 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 N SARASOTA            27.40N 82.55W
01/24/2019  M66.00 MPH       MANATEE            FL   ASOS

            ASOS AT KSRQ REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 57 KNOTS.

&&

CLOSE

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