Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
428 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Strong southerly flow out ahead of the band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms has transported abundant moisture northward
overnight with dew points now in the mid to upper 60s across the
region. We've seen gusts to around 40 knots near the coast in the
southerly synoptic flow and wouldn't take much for the convection
to tap the 50 to 60 knot winds a few thousand feet off the surface
so an isolated severe wind gusts is possible in some of the
stronger storms early this morning. Could also see a quick spinup
leading to an isolated waterspout/tornado early this morning as
the band moves through. Cold front will exit the region by early
afternoon taking most of the convection with it as west to
northwest flow ushers in our next shot of cool dry air for Friday
and Saturday.

Over the weekend and into early next week broad mid/upper level
troughing will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
with a series of shortwaves moving through it. Saturday night
into Monday shortwave energy will be moving across the Gulf of
Mexico and into Florida, but the timing, location, and strength of
the wave continues to vary highly between the models which leads
to a continued rather low confidence in the forecast during this
timeframe. Latest indications are that the best chance of
rain/showers will be across south Florida, but a slight shift in
location or strength of the shortwave could bring a much higher
rain chances to the entire region. For now have gone with a blend
of the guidance and indicated slight chance to chance PoPs from
around the Interstate 4 corridor southward Saturday night and
Sunday and then chance PoPs across pretty much the entire region
for Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday the shortwave should be
off to the east of the area with weak surface high pressure
building in bringing a return to fair dry weather before the next
shortwave and associated cold front approaches from the northwest
during midweek bringing another chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected this morning as a
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moves across the
region this morning. VFR conditions should return from
northwest to southeast this afternoon and prevail through
tonight. Gusty southerly winds ahead of the convection will
diminish and shift to west northwest as the cold front
sweeps across the region today.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts to
gale force will shift to northwest and diminish later this morning
as the cold front crossed the waters. In the wake of the front
high pressure will build in north of the waters during Friday and
Saturday with winds and seas subsiding. An area of low pressure
may bring another round of showers into the central and southern
Gulf waters during Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air will move into the region in the wake of the cold front
and support a few hours of humidity values below 35 percent over
interior locations both Friday and Saturday afternoon. However,
low ERC values and lighter winds will preclude Red Flag
conditions.

Fog Potential...No significant fog is expected during the next
few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  46  60  43 / 100   0   0   0
FMY  72  52  65  46 /  80  10   0   0
GIF  71  44  62  42 / 100   0   0   0
SRQ  68  49  61  43 / 100   0   0   0
BKV  68  39  60  34 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  68  48  60  48 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-242145-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
443 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across west central
and southwest Florida this morning ahead of a cold front. A few
storms could be strong or severe and will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rain, and frequent deadly
lightning. An isolated tornado is also possible.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Minor coastal flooding is possible this morning due to strong
south to southwest winds ahead of a cold front. Coastal residents
should be alert and take action to protect property.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
High surf will produce rip currents along area beaches today and
Friday.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Wind speeds of 25 to 30 knots this morning with a few gusts to
gale force will produce hazardous boating conditions. A line of
strong to severe thunderstorms will push across the central and
southern waters early this morning with wind gusts over 40 knots
possible with the stronger storms along with isolated
waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
328 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

FLZ142-148-149-242-248-249-241100-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
Including the cities of Crystal River, Homosassa, Hernando Beach,
Bayport, Port Richey, Hudson, Inverness, Brooksville,
Spring Hill, Dade City, and Zephyrhills
328 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Approaching the Florida Nature Coast...

A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the Florida Nature
Coast early this morning. While gusty showers are already
impacting the region, the strongest storms are expected to begin
moving ashore from the Gulf of Mexico between 4AM and 7AM this
morning. These storms will contain heavy downpours and gusty
winds...likely adversely impacting the early morning commute. The
potential exists for a few isolated storms within this line to
contain locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado. Residents
of the Nature Coast should monitor the weather conditions early
this morning and be prepared to take action should warnings become
necessary. The thunderstorms...and any associated threat for
severe weather should push east of the region by the mid morning
hours.

Mroczka

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
336 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

FLZ050-151-155-160-251-255-260-241100-
Pinellas-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-
Including the cities of St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Tampa,
Apollo Beach, Westchase, Bradenton, Anna Maria Island, Venice,
Sarasota, Englewood, Brandon, Plant City, Sun City Center,
Parrish, Lakewood Ranch, Myakka City, and North Port
336 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Approaching West-Central Florida Coast...

A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the west-central
Florida coast early this morning. While gusty showers are already
impacting the region, the strongest storms are expected to begin
moving ashore from the Gulf of Mexico between 5AM and 7AM this
morning for Pinellas and Hillsborough counties...and between 6AM
and 8AM for Manatee and Sarasota counties. These storms will
contain heavy downpours and gusty winds...likely adversely
impacting the early morning commute. Conditions support a few
isolated storms within this line to contain locally damaging winds
or even a brief tornado. Residents of the Tampa Bay area should
monitor the weather conditions early this morning and be prepared
to take action should warnings become necessary. The
thunderstorms...and any associated threat for severe weather
should push east of the region by the middle to late morning
hours.

Mroczka

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
507 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

FLZ043-248-249-241045-
Inland Hernando FL-Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-
507 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER...PASCO AND EASTERN
HERNANDO COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EST...

At 506 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Wildwood to East Lake.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Zephyrhills, Wildwood, Dade City, Bushnell, St. Leo, Hill n Dale,
Zephyrhills South, Zephyrhills West, Land O Lakes, Zephyrhills North,
Wesley Chapel South, South Brooksville, Lake Panasoffkee, Ridge
Manor, San Antonio, Center Hill, Webster, Coleman, Saint Leo and
Zephyrhills Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2867 8229 2867 8226 2872 8225 2876 8218
      2879 8217 2882 8218 2896 8209 2896 8196
      2831 8196 2832 8202 2831 8206 2826 8206
      2826 8211 2817 8211 2818 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 256DEG 37KT 2892 8219 2809 8268

TBW